Iran, 30 Years Later – Adrift

by Serge Truffaut

    Almost exactly 30 years ago, the Ayatollah Khomeini took power and immediately tackled the composition of a constitution consecrating the regime’s theocratic nature, which a majority of Iranians adopted in a referendum 11 months later. Today, of all the sociological facts and political variables, the most salient is … youth! A youth confronted by not one, but several economic disasters.

    Of Iran’s 70 million people, close to half never knew the era of the Shah, or, more precisely, never lived during that period. Consequently, the country presents the face of youth, but not the optimism and the enthusiasm one generally associates with that demographic reality. Quite the opposite. If one trusts the news concerning drug consumption, both soft and hard, tomorrow’s adults are prey to spleen. In short, English punks no sooner cried, "No Future!" than Iranian kids made it their slogan.

    Among the batteries of data establishing a connection between youth and the enormous economic challenge faced by the Persian kingdom, one that holds our attention is that even as young girls barely reach puberty, their parents are concluding their marriages as soon as possible. The main reason? A married teenager is one less mouth to feed. So, hundreds of thousands of the poor truncate their daughters’ futures for a mouthful of bread.

    It’s true that under the ineffable presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, finding daily nourishment in Tehran or Isfahan has taken on the character of running a military obstacle course. Between the stupidity – there is no other word – of the economic managers, or those purported to be economic managers, and the inanity that has distinguished the administration of petroleum income – not forgetting an agricultural policy that follows the scars that ravaged the Russian plains during the era of Stalin – Iran imports rice, tomatoes, meat, and other foodstuffs from abroad. Sometimes the near abroad, and so, affordable; sometimes from far away, and so, expensive.

    In short, Iran’s economic horizon is as follows: inflation is close to 30 percent; the price of food increased 40 percent in 2008; the unemployment rate is officially 15 percent: it, in fact, flirts with 20 percent. The kitty, or reserve fund into which a portion of oil income had been deposited, has been emptied out over the Ahmadinejad years. O.K. Let’s remember that the price of a barrel of oil started its straight-line ascent after his 2005 election before brushing $150 last July. In other words, this head of state, who asserts he is preparing the way for the Hidden Imam the Shiites are waiting for, was entitled to a divine financial surprise by way of black gold. What did he do with it? Make a thorough botch, both overall and in detail. Yet, the income inherent to oil exploitation accounts for 50 percent of the government’s revenues.

    Iran’s economic decrepitude that exasperates so many Iranians, and especially more-unemployment-prone youth, is to be laid at the door of a peculiar coupling between the Ayatollahs on one side, engineers and doctors on the other. Before continuing, let me note that government-owned companies have cornered 85 percent of economic activity. Given that perspective, this alliance maintains virtually unchanged the same ideological and political base founded by the Khomeini regime in its first hours.

    Nonetheless, the coupling in question still and always considers Islam to be the final frontier, considers democracy to be, in fact, a trap set by a West, the ultimate objective of which is domination of the Persian nation. Opposite, there are reforming Ayatollahs associated with economists, technocrats, intellectuals and diplomats. If it’s true that 15 percent only of the population supports the conservative Ayatollahs’ side, the so-called realists should win next June’s election. Their handicap? They have no mastery over the police force which still and always continues to imprison and execute those it describes as … deviants! Like Stalin in his day.

    ——–

    Translation: Truthout French language editor Leslie Thatcher.

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