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KHALIL NOURI: AFGHANISTAN: AN INEVITABLE KARZAI DYNASTY RULING
By: Khalil Nouri STAFF WRITER FOR VETERANS TODAY
AN INEVITABLE KARZAI DYNASTY RULING
Subsequent to Hamed Karzai shamelessly stealing the Afghan re-election; he agreed that his achievements and standards would be higher – and the Obama administration vowed that he will honorably and ethically keep his word, but the Afghan president once again deceitfully proved his greed for power.
He has reportedly granted himself powers over a key electoral watchdog, a move likely to aggravate relations between his government and NATO allies fighting insurgents in the war-torn country.
In a presidential decree published last week, Karzai gave himself the power to appoint all five members of Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC).
The commission, helped expose massive fraud in last year’s presidential poll, forcing Karzai into a second vote.
However, under a previous law, the United Nations appointed three foreign experts to the five-member commission, which would work alongside Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC). The Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (IHRC), and the Supreme Court of Afghanistan appointed the remaining two members.
This deceiving resumption cannot come at any time worse when the American, NATO and Afghan forces are wholeheartedly battling the insurgency and shedding their blood in the name of peace in Afghanistan. But Mr. Karzai is boldly interested only in his own political power, which is immensely destructive for the U.S. NATO operation and Afghanistan’s democratic process. In fact, Mr. Karzai’s failure to build a credible, honest and even modestly effective government is the Taliban’s number one recruiting apparatus.
NEXT PREDICTABLE DECEITFUL MOVE:
A DYNASTICAL APPROACH?
The new decree will help Karzai ensure that the parliament after elections in September will be dominated by his political allies. With a future parliament on his side, Karzai ultimately would be able to amend the constitution so that he can run for more than two elected terms if he chooses to do so. That would allow Karzai to run for election again in 2014, and once that door is opened, in due course, he could declare himself head of the Afghan state for life.
On hindsight, if Karzai for some reason is unable to amend the constitution to allow himself to run for a third elected term, a sympathetic parliament on his side could help him extend his term in office by supporting a declaration of a state of emergency—a move that could delay elections indefinitely.
At last with his allied constituents; warlords, drug cartel and accumulated deep-pockets, he can easily buy—former Russian president, (now vice president) Vladimir Putin did the same for his friend Dmitry Medvedev by winning the Russian presidency— an election for a family member or a crony who could protect Karzai in a safe heaven when his term ends.
One may argue as why go through another presidential election when the last one was a fiasco?
In fact, that is a valid argument, and Afghanistan never had an election in that fashion before.
Moreover, election process in Afghanistan will always be a mess and a recipe for ethnic tension and civil strife.
For centuries the head of Afghan state was chosen by the grand assembly of elders (Loya Jirgah), and the selected one was for life.
This process is still well suited for today Afghanistan, but undoubtedly Mr. Karzai is not the man for the job. He neither can lead nor can be accepted by the majority of Afghans. Therefore, he is considered a hindrance to U.S. NATO goals in Afghanistan.
IS THIS AN AFGHANIZATION OR ANOTHER DECEPTION?
“This is the beginning of Afghanization and it will continue” as declared by Karzai’s deputy spokesperson. He also said, “The Afghan government for long wanted to Afghanize the electoral process and ten days ago, the cabinet ratified the amendment and the president endorsed it.”
As an Afghan born, I believe, Afghanization is a good thing, but with the current state of fragility in Afghanistan, the country cannot endure to stand on its feet. Conversely, this seems to be another path for creation of a sound fraudulent system in Afghanistan.
In fact, the whole electoral machinery having been installed by him personally, and this is alarming that even Afghan parliament is unable to force the president to fire ministers.
There are signs that the West is not careful, and this could be moving towards an unintended dictatorship, and hindrance for creation of a legitimate Afghan state. Also, it could be a futile effort to win the war on terror as well as the hearts and minds of the Afghan people.
Hamed Karzai’s lack of deliverance in the past nine years is plain, and hence, the collective patience of NATO alliance is increasingly running out. As a result, the fractious coalition could be dismantled precipitously and set a victory for insurgency.
Recently Dutch government announced soon to pull out of Afghanistan, and next year Canadians to do the same. Therefore, the Afghan mission could be winding towards a failure by emboldening the insurgency further.
In final, Karzai’s recent decision about the electoral process is not only a continued betrayal towards his nation, but continued crises of credibility, which are also clear recipes for downward spiral in Afghanistan.
In that regards, has it occurred to anyone in the White House national security circles or the pundit class that the ongoing loss of American and Afghan lives is wasteful and immoral?
Moreover, what will the court of public opinion think?
Also, how a fragile NATO alliance could be cohesive against the cause in Afghanistan?
At last, what are the repercussions for a collapsed Pakistani government and the regional chaos?
I believe another change of strategy for Afghanistan is foreseeable in a near future.
Khalil Nouri is the cofounder of New World Strategies Coalition Inc., a native think tank for nonmilitary solution studies for Afghanistan. www.nwscinc.org
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Short URL: http://www.veteranstoday.com/?p=17852
Posted by Khalil Nouri on Feb 25 2010, With 0 Reads, Filed under AfPak, Foreign Relations, Top 10. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.
Karzai is numbering his days.
JA
It sounds as if a cold civil war is taking place in Afghanistan, between a US puppet (my understanding is that Karzai was even a CIA asset at one point in his career) and a homegrown insurgency. One can only hope that a) the Taliban lose the fight and that b) Karzai is ultimately replaced with an Afghan Afghani not a US Afghani. The people struggling to live in a place as famously hellish as Afghanistan really do deserve better.
wow……
must read:
“February 16, 1989
Last Soviet Soldiers Leave Afghanistan
By BILL KELLER, SPECIAL TO THE NEW YORK TIMES
MOSCOW — The last Soviet soldier came home from Afghanistan this morning, the Soviet Union announced, leaving behind a war that had become a domestic burden and an international embarrassment for Moscow.”
How’s NATO going to justify sending troops to fight and die if this becomes law? There won’t be any more ability to pretend that Karzai has a legitimate and democratic government. No legitimate government will mean that by the current definition ‘insurgents’ will become freedom fighters. You know who I mean..the same guys St. Ronnie was so proud of.
****************
“By the President of the United States of America, 21 March 1983
The tragedy of Afghanistan continues as the valiant and courageous Afghan freedom fighters [The Taliban] persevere in standing up against the brutal power of the Soviet invasion and occupation. The Afghan people are struggling to reclaim their freedom, which was taken from them when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December of 1979.
In this three-year period the Soviet Union has been unable to subjugate Afghanistan. The Soviet forces are pitted against an extraordinary people who, in their determination to preserve the character of their ancient land, have organized an effective and still spreading country-wide resistance. The resistance of the Afghan freedom fighters is an example to all the world of the invincibility of the ideals we in this country hold most dear, the ideals of freedom and independence.
We must also recognize that the sacrifices required to maintain this resistance are very high. Millions have gone into exile as refugees. We will probably never know the numbers of people killed and maimed, poisoned and gased, of the homes that have been destroyed, and of the lives that have been shattered and stricken with grief.
It is, therefore, incumbent upon us as Americans to reflect on the events in Afghanistan, to think about the agony which these brave people bear, and to maintain our condemnation of the continuing Soviet occupation. Our observance again this year of Afghanistan Day on March 21, the Afghan New Year, will recall for all the world America’s unflagging sympathy for a determined people, its support for their refugees and commitment to achieving a political settlement for Afghanistan which will free that country from tyranny’s yoke.”
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/45/278.html
Here is a qoute by Gen. Colin Powell:
“We have gone forth from our shores repeatedly over the last hundred years and we’ve done this as recently as the last year in Afghanistan and put wonderful young men and women at risk, many of whom have lost their lives, and we have asked for nothing except enough ground to bury them in.”
I am wonder who are we dying for? Karzai?
Karzai was the installed puppet of Bush/Cheney. And after Bush basically ignored him for 6 years Karzai went rogue and started drug dealing and working with our adversaries.
Mr. Karzai you did not show a HUGE turnaround and therefore you will not be trusted again. The abandonment by Bush was wrong. But engaging in this huge level of corruption was not how you fix things.
King Hamed Karzai?
I thought he is the mayor of Kabul.
He is promoting himself to a new position… what a big jump.
When we’re gone, someone for sure, perhaps the Loya Jirga will revoke the mayor of Kubul’s right to live along with his ridiculous laws.
It’s absurd to impose a western style government on a society that has traditions millenniums older than ours.
This the white man’s burden. /s
From Radio Netherlands:
Concern about Karzai power grab
Published on 23 February 2010 – 11:46am
Western diplomats have expressed concern about the increasing power of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
The president has issued a decree giving him the power to appoint the members of Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission. Last year, the Commission helped expose widespread electoral fraud by Mr Karzai’s supporters during the presidential elections. The Western diplomats say they expect the parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in September will again be marred by widespread fraud.
Delft, Netherlands
“Karzai’s Pashtun majority”? You must be joking. I hear that Karzai is considered a traitor and an Uncle Tom by his Pashtun brethren. Noticethat he has no political party and that his bodyguards are all Americans. In any case, the Afghan army is mostly Tajiks, who make up only around 25% of the population. We would do well to consider the experience of this officer on the ground who says, “We should honestly admit that our efforts over the last eight years have not led to the expected results. Huge material resources and considerable casualties did not produce a positive end result- stabilization of military-political situation in the country. The protracted character of the military struggle and the absence of any serious success, which could lead to a breakthrough in the entire strategic situation, led to the formation in the minds of the majority of the population of the mistrust in the abilities of the regime.” That was Col. K. Tsagalov writing to the Soviet Defense Minister.
He will remain the mayor of Kabul despite his power grab and “Karzai manifesto” implementation that exactly Najibullah played with the Russians. Is he the next to be hung from the light post?
JJ
Virginia
Karzai’s power grab is a big miscalculation
Last Updated: February 24. 2010 10:16PM UAE / February 24. 2010 6:16PM GMT
No one could possibly trust the results of the last Afghan election. Nearly a third of the votes from the first round of voting were thrown out because of fraud. The incumbent Hamid Karzai nearly declared himself the victor anyway. And when his opponent dropped out before the second round of balloting, Mr Karzai waltzed into office with barely a nod to the principles he had trod underfoot.
Now it seems that the president is determined to shed even the flimsy mandate that his election provided him. Since the August ballot, Nato countries, whose troops are fighting and dying in Afghanistan, have pressured Mr Karzai to curb corruption and replace election officials. On Tuesday he finally acted – by giving himself complete control over the last independent watchdog overseeing voting, the Electoral Complaints Commission.
It isn’t difficult to understand Mr Karzai’s reasons for further brutalising the Afghan constitution. Referred to by his detractors as “the mayor of Kabul” because of his tenuous grip outside the capital, the president is trying to centralise as much power as he can before parliamentary elections in September. If he and his allies can repeat their last performance, Afghanistan will be a democracy only in name.
That would be a serious setback for the stability of the country, which desperately needs functioning institutions to channel conflict from the battlefield to the political arena. But democratisation and stronger institutions will do little to benefit Mr Karzai’s inner circle. His power base is a coterie of allies of convenience tied to him by a corrupt system of patronage. Afghanistan has seen the rise and fall of this kind of leader before.
For all of the squeamishness about Mr Karzai’s dodgy electioneering, his regime’s corruption, it is still Nato and coalition forces that keep him in power. The alternative to Mr Karzai is a return to the Taliban. The US reinforcements and the beginning of a long campaign in Helmand province are ongoing despite, not because of, Mr Karzai’s leadership. For the time being, he can still shelter under their umbrella. Eventually he will have to stand on his own.
Mr Karzai’s long-term prospects have always depended on his ability and willingness to deliver good governance, which is now a distant hope at best. The struggle to define Afghanistan will continue, but this president’s political machinations do little for his country. And should they continue, they will lead to his own undoing.
This move by Karzai has to be stopped ! Canada was the only hope we had for an international link to this election commission ! Canada and Kippen gave hope that at least someone would listen to the calls of fraud. If Karzai gets his shady way no one will be watching this dictator! No election will be free and fare ……he’ll stuff every ballot box just the way he did last August. THIS MAN is dangerous and so is this law he just signed. Who is the more foolish the fool (Karzai) or the fools that follow him.
Kabul Khatay
Toronto, Canada
After all, if we don’t intend to colonize Afghanistan, at some point we have to recognize that they have not only a right, but likely a duty, to get foreigners out so as to chart their own course.
The question comes down to the timing. When is “some point”, and do we simply trust that we know better than them when that might be? Or that when that time arrives it’ll be clear to both of us? What if the course they want to chart isn’t the one we like — it’d be pretty easy at that point to suggest that the time isn’t right yet.
Personally, I’d go with getting out of their government, but following up with an external, international group watching their elections to report on the fairness — and perhaps resorting to the McMillan Tac50 to suppress corruption.