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KHALIL NOURI: THE CORLEONES OF KANDAHAR ARE DOOMED TO FAIL AFGHANISTAN
By Khalil Nouri, STAFF WRITER
From Left to Right: Muslimyar, Hamid Karzai & Gul Agha Sherzai
Over history since the 4th century BC, my ancestral city of Kandahar changed hands many times and was fought over by the Arabs, Greeks, Persians, Mongols, British, Russians and now the US and NATO will soon initiate a D-day that could very well decide the fate of the rest of Afghanistan.
This conservative and sacred Pashtun heartland—where Prophet Muhammad’s cloak is placed—has always played a pivotal role with all its political makeup, and now, there is a window of opportunity for control of the city—same as Marjah and Nad-Ali— that is considered an operational nightmare and an opaque situation that could possibly exhaust public opinion and swiftly resulting in a change of strategy in the US-NATO operation.
If this operation is currently considered the cornerstone of the surge effort, and the key to shifting momentum, then only time can correctly measure its success by convincing the Afghan populace that this is a viable political solution. However, in our native view, there are obstacles that could be impasses for the surge to succeed.
The Corleones of Kandahar and the Consequences to Stability
First and foremost, corruption schemes by the Afghan government are nuanced indulgence manipulations of complex tribal politics currently played out by the “Poplazai” and “Barakzai” tribal Chiefs—Ahmad Wali Karzai (half-brother to President Hamed Karzai) and Gul Agha Sherzai (current governor of the eastern province of Nengarhar and former governor of Kandahar). Both families are allegedly linked to narco-mafia criminal gangs and to government corruption. If the U.S. continues to accommodate the existing power structure, it will appear to be regarding corruption as an acceptable status-quo—a bad message for both the Afghan and American public.
Ahamad Wali Karzai
One should bear in mind that corruption is the root cause for instability, and power grabbing by these means lies at the center of the intense political competition among the above mentioned leading tribal families and clans. Instead of seeking balance and stability, they outmaneuver their political rivals through extensive alliances to establish themselves as the undisputed leaders of the region. These schemes have far-reaching consequences and result in damaging harmony and national unity in Afghanistan.
This behavior has immeasurably alienated other tribes who are pushed from the course of prosperity; and consequently their corrective measure for balance is the rejuvenation of Taliban recruitment into its organization. The element missing in today’s Afghanistan is a sense of mutual benefit for all tribal elements and a balance of power between the tribes reflected in the central government; without it there is no peace.
Lack of Reliable and Acceptable Afghan Leadership
Afghan President Hamed Karzai sought to rally public support for an upcoming military operation in the Taliban’s birthplace, promising that U.S. and NATO troops will push into insurgent areas only after consultations with tribal leaders.
As he was speaking to about 2,000 officials and tribal leaders in Kandahar last Sunday, in the background was a huge portrait of King Zahir Shah—the popular ex Afghan monarch— that was used to draw constituency for the support of the operation. This clearly shows a lack of Karzai’s “Poplazai” tribal strength compared to the ex-monarch; whose tribal clan has overwhelmingly higher acceptance within the tribal hierarchies and structure in Kandahar—where all the tribal identities are given weight—and elsewhere in Afghanistan.
One must bear in mind, if Kandahar is the key to success in Afghanistan, then a popular tribal acceptance and representation is the key to a balance of power; and consequently to an imminent restoration of peace in the Pashtun Heartland. Therefore, this has been “the” prime flaw for the West since the Bonn conference; by not recognizing this tribal phenomenon, they have wasted time, money and lives.
Although many, including some US Congressional individuals like Dana Rohrabacher and Edward Royce, had enthusiastically advocated for a balanced Afghan tribal leadership consideration prior to the Bonn agreement, an Afghan born US envoy to Afghanistan by the name of Zalmay Khalilzad had the ears of the Bush administration and manipulated the interim Afghan government process that pronounced Karzai as the leader of the post Taliban government.
Hamed Karzai’s most recent intrigue; vote rigging, then charging foreigners and the UN for the presidential election fraud; power grabbing, by dismissing independent election monitors; siding with Ahmadinejat, twice taking trips to Iran at the expense of the US; making the comment, “if the West were seen as an invader and the Afghan government its mercenaries,” he goes on to say, “the Taliban-led insurgency could become a national resistance”; and finally, he is now saying that if he is pushed too hard for reform by the West, he will join the Taliban insurgency.
This is clearly no April fool’s day joke; while politically embarrassing, Karzai’s remarks were neither unprecedented nor, in perspective, surprising. He might only be trying to create more political maneuvering room for himself, or he might be serious. Either way, the relationship between Kabul and Washington is in serious crises.
Hearsay and Personal Knowledge about Karzai
As I recall, from my youth, Karzai’s late father Mr. Abdul Ahad Karzai and my late father were very good friends and colleagues; they both had diplomatic careers with the Afghan foreign ministry. The elder Karzai seemed very charismatic and was well respected by his peers. However, recalling Hamed Karzai from school days, he was actually a couple of grades behind me. A childhood friend’s sister and Karzai’s sister (Fauzia Karzai) were high school friends; and from that friend I learned that, Hamid often isolated himself to read philosophy books and was nicknamed “mad (or) angry Hamid” by his family.
The most recent worldwide- viewed Karzai political brouhaha has revealed that his family “nickname” truthfully portrays his mental instability and exactly as who he is. Karzai’s behavior can only lead to an unpredictable outcome; therefore, the West should not appear weak and kneel down to him. Otherwise, years of Western investment and sacrifices will have been a futile effort.
In Conclusion
Evidently, Karzai maintains a fragile grip on the leadership of his country and is seen by his critics as being too Western, and too much a puppet of Washington. But in the eyes of some Afghans, it is smart politics for Karzai to be seen as his own man by his countrymen. To a great extent, the power of Hamid Karzai depends upon government control in Kandahar. If the province is lost to the Taliban, it will be a major blow to his government, to his personal influence, and to U.S.-NATO operations as well.
It is fairly obvious that the battle for Kandahar will be more political than military—and it will require skills and expertise that are in short supply. In hindsight, seemingly, Karzai and his tribal alliance—the “Popalzai” and the “Barakzai”—are the only ones in Kandahar who can tactically maneuver the West in the direction of failure.
Moreover, Karzai’s recent behavior seems set more on aggravating relations rather than repairing them. Even after almost a decade of fighting, the whole Afghan project is still in a fragile predicament.
Therefore, it should be clearer than ever that the strategy’s success or failure is, in large measure, up to Karzai. If he hasn’t proven to be a reliable partner by now, then it’s time for the U.S. to understand that installing puppets in Afghanistan like the British did for 80 years or the Soviets did for 10 years or we did the same with Karzai for the past 9 years is not the answer.
History shows for a government to succeed in Afghanistan it must not have allegiance to a foreign nation or power. We should learn from the British failures and successes. Allowing the formation of a friendly government to the British; like the ones ruled by Nadir Shah and his son Zahir Shah is the only answer.
And finally, it is unimaginable for us Americans to hear the announcement that “the last U.S. soldier came home from Afghanistan this morning, leaving behind a war that has become a domestic burden and an international embarrassment for Washington”; exactly as was the case when the last Russian soldier left Afghanistan on February 16th 1989.
Khalil Nouri is the cofounder of New World Strategies Coalition Inc., a native think tank for nonmilitary solution studies for Afghanistan. www.nwscinc.org
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Posted by Khalil Nouri on Apr 6 2010, With 0 Reads, Filed under AfPak, WarZone. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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Hamid Karzi’s meeting with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spells the end of all hope of the United States winning the war in Afghanistan. The time to leave Afghanistan has arrived – that war is lost.
At this point it is a gray area .. However, with this Karzai action, there will be always a reaction.
America is simply pushing for reform in governance in the country where its troops are shedding blood and pouring its tax dollars.
if the US is there to help then expectation are that Afghan government to roll up its sleeves as well. Or at least show due diligence on its part that it is trying its best. But it is the opposite with drug trafficking and warlord appointments to high government positions..
Khalil,
Karzhai has a tough road, a lot tougher than the average USA president. He has to keep the USA happy, keep Pakistan happy(who will not go away) and most importantly, keep the clan chiefs in the mountains, who also happen to control the countries chief export(opium), happy.
It’s hard to keep all these factions happy, AND get a bit of power and money for oneself and ones allies. Without that power and money for ones allies, he can’t maintain a ruling coalition. In Afghanistan, the center cannot hold, and Karzai is the one trying to hold it.
Is he perfect? No. Any perfect person would not be in his position.
I have no solution. The USA thought that by backing a LESS corrupt politician, their aims would be met. This is turning out not to be the case.
Fred,
I fail to understand your point.
We are in a different position and I need your answer to my question:
How Obama government expects to win a war against ‘Talibans’ in Afghanistan when the local government of Afghanistan is at odds & is not fully supportive of US actions in Afghanistan?
I believe we are talking apples and oranges.
Khalil
The end result will be a decade of pointless war.
Karzai will do his deals with the Taliban, Pakistan, Iraq, China and whoever.
NATO will be just another group of foreigners chewed up and spat out by Afghanistan’s Byzantine era politics.
Very well said,
Thank you for posting.
Even though the apparent target of Karzai’s attack sits thousands of miles away, if we look closely we can see that his real target audience is within his borders. Karzai is trying to improve his image internally, especially with the Taliban.
You mean the image with his balls still attached rather than the image of them hanging from his mouth..That image? Ol’ Hami is dog meat when the west leaves.. he’s changing tack and is hoping time changes his image..
AM
Manchester, UK
Abdul,
Yes, he is in a jungle surrounded by predators. If he defects to Taliban his allegiance is only temporary. He will not last long within the organization if US to leave.
When Karzai dissapears in the middle of the night, don’t be surprised…
The stories will be abundant with speculations of if it were the US and her clandestined heroes, or the Taliban and Al Qaida pajama wearing goons that have made him dissapear…
I don’t see any reason that Kandahar would ever fall to taliban or it will be a blow to central government, say if it happened. The days that everything was governed by a tribe from Kandahar is now over, they are now like myths. Those days are over that Afghanistan was ruled by a particular tribe, plus Taliban war is not having any ethnic or tribal roots. It is simply an ideological war as a mean for achieving power.
AP,
A little research and history of Kandahar would help.
Hello Khalil,
And long time no talk; I hope you and your family are happy, healthy and well. I must say, I absolutely loved your latest articles “Afghan Election Must Be Shunned” and this one. I learn so much every time you send out these links and just wanted to show my appreciation for keeping me on your e-mail list. I’ll look forward to the next article…especially after the latest “diplo-talk” showdown going on between DC and Karzai. Our beloved country surely needs all the insight and advice from those such as yourself…I’m sure you are doing more good than you know.
Many thanks again for all your insights; you’re an inspiration!
Warmest regards,
KG
Dear Katie,
Thank you for your kind words. It is pleasure make a difference in reader’s views by introducing my native experience.
Hope to see you in DC.
Khalil
Mr. Nouri,
Your article very well reflects the solution for Afghanistan.
And I had hope for the return of the ex-King’s type of government. He was regarded by the Afghan people and would have been a symbol of unity. May he rest in Peace.
Many Afghans had a deep love and respect for him, whose lenghty reign was associated with peace, security and modest political reform.
Let us hope for someone to follow his footsteps.
Thank you for the article.
Dr. Robert Roy
Dear Dr. Roy,
Thank you very much for your kind comment.
As you know Afghanistan’s descent into conflict and instbility began with the overthrow of the late king in 1973.
There is no more to be said about the good old days of Afghanistan.
Khalil
i realy dont give a dam if karzai!s is on drugs or not or whatever he says, but if he is no longer an allied of america, then we should do what we did in panama, remove him from office. The americans tax payers has invested to much time and money and most of all american lives.
I am sure there are cridible people to replace him.
I was struck with this line from Khalilzad’s bio: Dr. Khalilzad headed the Bush-Cheney transition team for the Department of Defense and has been a Counselor to Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld.
Present at the founding! Paul Wolfowitz, Douglas Feith, Donald Rumsfeld, etc. — Khalilzad was not only consorting with criminals but advancing them (Taliban) in government! He would be right at home (literally) in present-day Afghanistan.
This is guy is the destroyer of American interest and as Nouri said the biggest manipulator in Afghan interim government.
Wasted lives, time and money must be all blamed on idiot Bush who trusted Khalilzad, and look where we are in Afghanistan.
Well, since you reminded me of Khalilzad, he is one the most corrupt person in the world, not to mention he was instrumental in the Bush-Chaney failed policy in that region (Afghanistan/Middle East) for 8 years of Bush administration.
Malcom said it right, we are paying with our blood and money because of this idiot.
USA is as mercurial as karzai. Taliban assassinated karzai’s father. Karzai joined anti-taliban w/ massoud– an ex enemy– pre 9/11.
America’s compass shifts at least as often in geopolitics. There is a solution here, but threats and ultmatums prove futile
Good insight Stryker .. Thanks
His Majesty was interested in becoming ruling Monarch again.
Mike Whitney wrote in “Afghanistan Down The Memory Hole”:
“Originally, (at the first Loya Jirga) it looked as though Afghans might get the strong leader they needed by nominating Zahir Shah; the former king of Afghanistan (who presided over a benign ‘constitutional monarchy’). This would have been an astute move and may have even bound the nation together.
“Unfortunately, back room ‘arm twisting’ by the Bush Administration (Khalilzad) made sure that that didn’t happen. They wanted their guy from Conoco oil (Karzai) and they got him.”
Very true Freier, thank you for your posting and no doubt the late King could have unified the country much different than now. However, there is Mostapha Zahir his grandson to stand up and advocate for the leadership.
Afgahnistan and the West will support him.
What is so irnonic about Khalilzad that he is still giving his advice to Obama adminstration through Op-Ed sections in major U.S. news media and papers.
Khalil
Karzai is explained very well below:
A detailed profile with the headline “Karzai in his labyrinth”, published last August in The New York Times, painted a picture of a tortured leader cracking under the claustrophobic pressure of his job. “His friends told me he has health problems. He’s skin and bones. He always has a cold or a cough and takes effervescent vitamin C tablets compulsively,” wrote Elizabeth Rubin. “He snaps easily. Promotes flatterers. Kills the messenger. Hugs his enemies. Abuses his friends. And his twitching eye — a nervous tic, [friends] say — is unusually active.”
Although aides claim that Mr Karzai’s latest outbursts against America and the EU were misunderstood, he has described his temper as an asset. “When needed, my extreme toughness with our allies is an asset I want the Afghan people to have if they choose so,” he said. He does, however, cry a lot in private, sources told The Times.
I think that the war in Afghanistan is winnable. The problem is that people have differing perceptions of what ‘winning’ actually means. Its no surprise that more troops are dying than before, because they’re actually doing their job properly now. They’ve left behind the barracks culture and are making their presence felt in Afghanistan.
As a society we’ve become too casualty averse, we behave as though wars do not naturally involve death and destruction. Comparing Afghanistan to Vietnam, as some left-leaning hand wringers have done, is ludicrous: 58,000 US troops died in Nam, and over a million Vietnamese. That war was wrong-headed and monstrously excessive. In Afghanistan, the casualty rates are much lower, and we’re fighting an enemy wholly incapable of mounting effective guerrilla attacks, hence the profligacy of IED-related casualties.
Also, if you take a look at the opinion polls in Afghanistan, the vast majority of Afghans polled want rid of the Taliban. While they may generally hold an unfavourable view of ISAF’s continued presence in their country, it is necessary if they are to have a national army capable of securing the country against the Taliban, al Qaeda and the Haqqani network. With the latest news that one of the insurgent factions, the Gulbuddin Hekmatyar network, possibly switching sides in an alliance with the Kabul government, the tide may be turning.
We in the West like to believe that an anti-war perspective naturally lends itself to ‘doing right’ by people in war-torn countries. The reality is, however, that we are anti-war for our own selfish interests, hence the statistics related to building hospitals and schools. Ultimately, the governments of Thatcher and Reagan created the mess that is fundamentalist insurgency in the region, promoting mujahideen terrorists (what they referred to back then as ‘freedom fighters’) against secular-minded, pro-women’s rights socialists and communists. I think that gives us a responsibility to try to amend the wrongs committed in the name of prosecuting the Cold War.
As for the political parties involved, they are in agreement regarding the right nature of the war because it is right, and also because to rally against it would undermine the somewhat questionable notion that our domestic security would be impeded should we evacuate Afghanistan. That would leave them all in a politically untenable position, and render the highly lucrative and politically useful ‘war on terror’ utterly defunct. And we all know how big a business fear promotion has become.
Karzai was installed and propped up by Bush, who then just literally walked away. Now we are seeing his puppet act like a child because he has been caught “fixing” the election. I guess Bush really rubbed off on him! If we really want peace in Afghanistan, let’s try and duplicate what Greg Mortenson, author of Three Cups of Tea, has been successfully doing for years, building roads and schools in the outlying regions of Afghanistan and as a result, wining over the Afghan people. Mortenson told our military, after reading Greg’s book and calling him in and asked how we can be more successful in Afghanistan, that the Saudis show up with literally suitcases full of cash, build enclosed compounds and pay the poorest of the poor to live and work within these compounds that teach and spawn terrorism. He went on to say that if our military would build roads and schools and hospitals and homes, instead of using force, we would easily win over the Afghan people and have a more realistic chance for a stable, less corrupt government. Let’s face it, it isn’t Afghanistan that is as much the problem as it is Pakistan, where the Taliban are free to do pretty much whatever they want, thanks to Pakistan protecting and making deals with them. Yet, we continue to dump more and more money, as well as troops into Afghanistan and give more and more “aid” to an even more dangerous and corrupt Pakistan. Greg isn’t the only American making a positive difference, there is also a female writer who helped Afghan women establish a pomegranate farm that is now making money and expanding. Obviously, this type of strategy, helping poor Afghans to earn a living and become educated and self sufficient, appears to be working a lot better than continuing to prop up a corrupt Karzai and use military force. Heck, for all we know, bin Laden is probably “hiding” out in Pakistan as well.