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GORDON DUFF: AFGHANISTAN AT A CROSSROADS
DISCUSSIONS TO “ERASE THE SLATE” AND START AGAIN
AMERICANS AND AFGHAN LEADERS LOOK FOR SUCCESSFUL COALITION MODEL
By Gordon Duff STAFF WRITER/Senior Editor
President Karzai is scheduled to come to Washington in May to meet with President Obama, a visit that has been “on” and “off” over the past few weeks. The tribal Jirga scheduled prior to the meet has been postponed. This Loya Jirga, a meeting between tribal leaders and Karzai to come to an agreement for a peace plan for Afghanistan will either end with Karzai as “the man with the plan” or with demands for an immediate replacement.
It is believed that the vast majority currently seen as “Taliban” are insurgents who, with strong leadership and a promise for the future, will align with the right government, leaving “hardcore” elements and foreign fighters to continue the war, a war they would then lose.
The consensus among tribal leaders is that the current military solution including “the surge” is doomed to failure. The evidence they use is seen in the aftermath of the Marjah campaign. Dr. Ed Corcoran of Global Security picked out these two reports:
- After our big effort to regain control of Marjah, the Taliban are apparently still operating there effectively. So, for example, the Marines used cash payments to prod more than 20 store owners at one bazaar to open their doors, but by late March, all but five shops had closed. A prominent anti-Taliban senior elder was also gunned down in northern Marja, prompting most of the 200 people in his district to flee. The locals know who the bad guys are and they are not fingering them. They know the Americans will leave (we’ve told them that and they have also see it before) and they clearly do not have confidence in the “government in a box” that the Marines brought to town. So it is hard to see how the big effort will have any real impact.
- Nevertheless, we are moving ahead to do the same thing in Kandahar, even though a local shura apparently directly told President Karzai that they are not happy with the planned operation and are well aware of how the Taliban still control Marja. They complain about the corruption and misrule of the local leaders, including Karzai’s half brother, apparently deeply involved in drugs, but now nevertheless having NATO’s support due to the lack of alternatives. And then, on top of that, US soldiers strafed a bus in Kandahar, killing at least four local Afghans on the very eve of an offensive planned to get local support. The soldiers are totally our of place culturally, unfamiliar with the language or customs, unable to distinguish Taliban from non-Taliban, and nevertheless putting their lives on the line. Inevitably they cause civilian deaths, and if they are too sensitive to that, then they cause their own deaths.
WHAT THE TRIBAL LEADERS ARE SAYING
One of the senior leaders of the Afghan tribes is critical of Coalition leaders who seem to be in a full panic mode. Reports indicate that the American leaders are contacting every Taliban leader, even and including those with reputations for hardcore opposition to, not only the American presence, but those mistrusted and hated by the majority of people in Afghanistan as well. America seems to believe they can pander to the most disreputable elements in society, using a bag of cash, and come up with an exit strategy that will leave a stabilized nation. This is insane.
Instead of approaching the leaders of the established families who have a strong history of ties to both tribal and religious elders, the only groups that could potentially turn the current chaotic situation into the rebuilding of the nation, America is proving to be a less and less reliable partner simply because of the appearance of confusion, panic and low quality intelligence sources.
The current solution suggested is a combination of leading tribal families, two or three strong leaders respected by the majority of Afghanistan, aided by a program of economic development, is the only way to achieve peace.
The fear is that Americans will chose a “technocrat” to replace Karzai, a “dupe” likely to drag the war on for another decade, someone “all hat and no cattle.”
Tribal leaders believe America has continually made bad choices. Rather than wishing for an American withdrawal, a continued American presence is requested but working with a “survivable” and “legitimate” government. The answer isn’t a military solution nor is it working with the Kabul/Karzai regime but rather the creation of sustainable systems, military, economic, education, health care, done within a framework acceptable to the entire nation, not just drug lords and the “Duke of Kabul.”
UPCOMING MILITARY OPERATIONS SEEN AS “EMPTY”
Nobody believes a military victory in Afghanistan is possible.
With Karzai in charge, not only is victory impossible but any real progress toward national unity itself is a joke. It is actually likely that we are moving backwards. America has been told by Afghan leaders that any attempt to repeat the failed Marjah operation with its massive collateral damage and poor planning will only make things worse. The majority of leaders of Afghanistan have ordered the plans for the surge to end.
THE PAKISTAN QUESTION
Many more Pashtuns live in Pakistan than Afghanistan. They see the Durand Line, the artificial border set up by the British in 1893 as a “Berlin Wall.” They want the “line” eliminated but the entire region is engulfed in conflict with the Durand Line being “ground zero.”
Pakistan, America’s primary ally, feels it is fighting a surrogate war against India and Israel, who they believe are arming terrorists in Afghanistan to attack Pakistan. Pakistan, as the only Islamic nuclear power, feels it has been targeted for dismemberment by other US allies, although Pakistan is steadfastly aligned with the United States.
Daily terrorist attacks across Pakistan lend credence to this as does the “special relationship” India has with Karzai who has allowed Indian “security personnel” to operate openly in Afghanistan. The US has been silent on this because of Israeli involvement with India and covert terrorist attacks against Iran that Israel is helping stage from neighboring Balochistan.
Additionally, Pakistan, though “next door” has very poor communications with tribal leaders in Afghanistan, who see Pakistan, a country ruled by a Europeanized minority in Punjab and Sindh as less than supportive of the needs of their own Pashtun population.
REGIONAL SOLUTIONS, REGIONAL INTERESTS
Some time ago, General Aslam Beg, former head of the Pakistani army, suggested a coalition between Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. While Karzai was strongly entrenched in Afghanistan and closely aligned with India, Pakistan’s primary rival, this sounded far fetched. However, with the current rift between the US and Israel over Iran and the threat of unilateral nuclear attack by Israel against Iran becoming a reality, the dynamic has altered significantly.
Such a coalition would, in fact, be the best thing for the United States.
No longer would Iran have reason to seek nuclear weapons but would be dependent on and aligned to a close American ally, Pakistan. Pakistan, a technologically advanced but economically backward nation, would have access to gas and oil along with credit lines that would allow modernization and economic programs that could stifle religious extremism in poverty stricken tribal areas.
Afghanistan would regain 25 million Pashtuns, and with hope, retain a renewed national identity but also see economic gains as part of a regional trade zone.
Key to this issue, however, is American approval, which, despite the current rift with Israel, would require a general demilitarization in the Middle East, and constructive dialog with all nations, working toward a sustainable model that would eliminate the potential for extremism.
UNRESOLVED ISSUES
Current policies within Israel that have even alienated the US government, will continue to be regionally divisive and a threat to security. With Israel pushing half is population into 5% of its land, “ghettoization, ” as it were, terrorism, real or “false flag” is likely to continue.
Within the Islamic community, strong religious divides will override ethnic, security or economic concerns with some radical clergy likely to oppose any move toward establishment of a defacto democratic secular state.
Is a single state, perhaps the only survivable model, the answer, a “bastard” state thrown together out of geopolitical necessity, an answer? Are old hatreds and fear capable of being cast aide, old divisions and rivalries to deliver the promise of a decent life to the majority of people, a promise made by Communism, a promise made and broken?
I have gotten very distressed at what we are doing, and not doing, in Afghanistan. As I see it, we need a whole new basic approach to the situation. The military approach is simply not working. Everyone recognizes that a military solution is not possible. The shortcomings of the central government undermine both development and security. In Ambassador Eikenberry’s words, “President Karzai is not an adequate strategic partner.” The US commitment to leave further undermines our efforts.
A
It’s hard to imagine how military operations in Helmand and Kandahar will bring any positive, long-term results.
We need a whole new strategy, except we cannot call it a “new strategy” because that would put it in direct opposition to current command concepts. So we have to talk in terms of some parallel effort that may start smaller but gradually assume the lead. It has to be based on building up the areas that are relatively secure and have reasonable good local leaders. We need to make clear long-term commitments, not to an open ended military effort, but to an open ended development and partnership effort. The American people will support positive programs – we have been in Germany and South Korea for 60 years helping both nations grow into dynamic democracies. We have to show results and we have to avoid large military operations, with attendant casualties and a huge logistic tail.
This focus has to be on local efforts, grass roots developments, small business, education, health, infrastructure. Khalil Nouri stresses the potential impact of Major Jim Gant’s approach, One Tribe at a Time and Tribal Engagement Teams. The only problem I see with that is the need to find a hundred more Jim Gants — every year. And I am also skeptical of having the military as the lead organization. But this sort of grass roots effort offers the only route I can see towards a more stable Afghanistan. This is also the same sort of approach championed by the New World Strategies Coalition – business development coordinated at the local level.
We need to outline in some detail such an approach, a “Local Development Effort” or a “Village Improvement Program” or whatever nice label we would put on it to give an initial positive impression and serve as a unifying concept for local operations. We need to identify areas where it can really work right now, identify specific projects and people to support, and find as many and varied US organizations that we can which would be willing to support these efforts.
Short URL: http://www.veteranstoday.com/?p=28248
Posted by Gordon Duff on Apr 23 2010, With 0 Reads, Filed under AfPak, WarZone. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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last known as the bear trap, should we now call afghanistan the eagle trap? asking armed troops to be ambasadors, while drones continue to pound away, seems pie in the sky to me. the entire theatre is out of step with what needs to be happening, and our surge isn’t even complete. i find it difficult to believe the military is going to subordinate to tribes or tribal leaders. not in their makeup. or training. it may be simplistic, but why not get up tomorrow morning and go home? we may have been able to bring germany, japan, and so korea around, but these were industialized nations when we started. and they had a form of gov’t that was workable. neither exist in this situation. bring our people home.
Barry
Many of our people, if they leave Afghanistan, have nowhere to live.
g
that is no reason to continue killing for profit. your premise holds water, tho’.
Barrie you nailed it when you said our government is asking our troops to be diplomats while our whole US policy is worthless concerning Afghanistan relationship with Karzi and Pakistan, and Israel´s relationship with India. At least I am assuming this is what you are telling us. We need to clear our name with the Islamic world. At least work solutions out as objectively as we can, without anti Muslim influence from Zionist friendly US congress, and the US and European media.
How can we have diplomacy in the area with our support of the subjugating of Muslims throughout the mid east? It is a lot of work to keep anti Muslim phobia taking on a violent head in the US.
First we need an Israel that is able to critically think about itself and the world around them. They need to get out of Indian politics. They need to get out of American politics. I am not sure this can be done. They showed their arrogance and who they are sending dozens of thugs to kill one Palestinian with forged passports, from friendly nations.
On CNN it was reported even Goldstone could not attend his grandsons coming Bar Mitzba because of threatened violence. The United States ignores itself and it´s total lack actions concerning Israel.
No peace between Israel and the Palestinians is not the golden bullet, causing peace to break out in Afghanistan, but certainly might be a start of peace in the mid east and the beginning of the marginalizing the radical Islam of the Taliban. At least our efforts would be honest efforts, and not clouded by our support of the ethnic cleansing. and ethnic genocide.
To ask our troops to be diplomats is ridicules. To put in in religious terms it is a sin to those that believe in God, until we first get things right between us and the Islamic world.
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Gordon;
Thank you for your wonderful article.
As an Afghan and a Pashtun, I have to admit US is in a wrong path from day one with its notion of Afghan policy.
Before to address a viable solution we must address the mistakes US made else we cannot know what and how to cure.
First and foremost, the misunderstanding of Afghanistan in terms of its tribal power structure was absolutely flawed when the Special Forces and CIA had entered Afghanistan in 2001 using the less dominant Uzbek tribe area of Northern Afghanistan and accepting a cash deal with the self made General and Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dustom to be the gatekeeper for the coalition troops to enter Afghanistan.
Furthermore, “no cry over spilled milk,” but that exasperated the Pashtun resentment of America’s first handshake with Uzbek and Northern Alliance tribes. However, the damage was done, but still went on and continued with governance grasp and control by the very same, and infuriated the Pshtuns further more.
US envoy to Afghanistan during Bush administration and Afghan born PhD, Zalmay Khalilzad, manipulated in the tribal council meeting and made the call for Karzai to be the head of the Afghan state instead of the poplar ex-King Mohammad Zahir Shah. His elite clan of the Durani tribe is far better accepted within all hierarchal tribal factions. Now, we have created an imbalance in the tribal structure by bringing Karzai. This is not only my say but it could be verified with a study of the history.
This is the tip of the iceberg, however in Afghanistan, tribal identity is way higher understood than what American perceive of the notion. It is almost akin to the “Camelot”, but in Afghan term. The Camelot were always accepted in any social mold and could have easily created constituency allegiance instantly.
As we evidenced during the Kennedy’s era that John, Robert and Bob as well as some other of their offspring held and still are holding high office jobs and recognitions. This is just because of their solid and successful social buildup skills. That took decades and the same for the ex-Afghan King’s family, who are able to knit Afghanistan’s fragile and broken society as evidenced before the Soviet invasion in 1979 for over 100 years. On the other hand, Karzai “Popalzai” tribe do not fall under the same notion of the said Afghani Camelot what the King had. And therefore, he is not able to build a true allegiance from average Afghans except from his warlord and drug baron friends. This is why the infuriation has escalated to a point that has snapped the society in a situation as we are seeing now and to spiral further.
In hindsight, there are other factors, but this is a main one because when there is no reliable leadership, then nothing can get done. I therefore see a waste of American lives and tax dollar for not only backing a corrupt government but one that has no backing of its own people. I believe the threads from the American puppet (Karzai) has been snapped and only few left to move a small number of body parts. In that regards this is a futile effort to have him a leader who has no popularity amongst his own people and the world.
I agree with Gordon; if Karzai to be replaced by a technocrat it will cause the same and back to square one, because none of the ones I know has those tribal backings.
Therefore, with no strong leadership, Afghanistan may not be rescued from its current quagmire. American policy makers cannot blindly make the choice just someone they prefer should be leading Afghanistan. And the election was a joke. It will never work, as the Russians evidenced, when they brought just about everyone from the communist faction who were also Pashtuns but with no tribal backings and all failed. As a matter of fact the late Afghanistan communist leader Dr. Najibullah called on King Zahir Shah to come back and take over, but due to security concerns and no guarantees for his fate he turned down the offer. Above all, Pakistan on CIA’s driver seat they wanted their man Gulbudin Hekmatyar to take over and he did by turning the guns on his own people.
It is also not going to work if anyone having allegiance to any foreign power. One must understand Afghans cannot backup anyone who is supported directly from the CIA, KGB or MUSAD or even ISI. The foreign powers must take a nonaligned role and be in the background and the head of state is the only one to run the country the way he wishes. But he must be forceful, at times brutal and kind hearted. Another words he should have carrots and stick only in true Afghani style.
One might say, is there anybody in that caliber? The answer is “YES”, and anybody wishes to know we Afghans have a solution, and our voices should be heard.
We have a plan!
Thank you,
Khalil Nouri
Sorry with no editing time for my posting.
You are correct on many things except the Hekmatyar part. The CIA wanted Hekmatyar, the state senate wanted Massoud. But Massouds reluctance to join the interim government and his rebuke to ISI chief who climbed a mountain to meet him but was not able to, let to his demise as a popular choice.
ISI did want Hekmatyar but he was far too brutal and was kicked out only to be replaced by another warlord. The whole fault lies in the Saur Revolution which was not required. Now things can only get better when Afghanistan’s neighbors form a strong coalition with it. Especially Pakistan as it shares culture, language and heritage.
Get King Shahs nephew in power, Pakistan to train the army, and high cooperation with Iran and Pakistan. Things might get much rosier. India, US, Russia and these foreigners only excavate the problem by using the country as a base for attacks on neighbors.
Sahal
Hikmatyar has other allies and is no longer dependent on Hamid Gul.
g
Yes you are correct, he went to Iran in the mid 90′s and just returned recently in 2007/8. But he is still handled by ISI, evident from him starting talks with Karzai when the Army Chief and ISI DG went to washington.
Gordon, its amazing to see how you speak out the truth that is so clear but time and again missed out by the westren media (purposely). Every detail that you describe is the kind of truth that I am aware of about the region and I wonder if can get the facts so straight about this whole topic than why can’t others. Its not rocket science, its just plain jungle politics!!!
Gordon, I found you recetly while googling around for honest answers and I must say I have the utmost respect for a guy like you who has the courage to stand up and fight to this injustice without prejudice. Thanks for writing such true article and throwing light on such important facts.
C R
Exactly why are there again? Something about a gas pipeline to the ocean through Pakistan wasn’t it?
Who is going to clean up the depleted uranium that democracy brought them when the U.S. leaves?
And what about the deformed kids the GI’S will sire or bear due to THEIR exposure?
Exactly why are there again?
Future prez Crazy Sarah from Alaska says we’re their to protect out freedoms and religion???
Funny how killing massive numbers of Afghans and taking away their freedoms and religion has something to do with the same 12,000 miles away.
Who came up with the term “Erase the Slate?” AEI?
Sounds like something they’d come up with, since they’re the ones that come out with “resetting the clock” in Iraq.
One of the few things that scare Apartheid Israel is those Pak nukes, which is probably one of the driving forces behind our foreign policy that is crafted in Tel Aviv.
Duff calls a clean game ! Pakistan, AFGN and Iran should be encouraged to seek as many economic solutions as possible. The Karzai administration is a bad joke to the locals caught in the middle of TaliQueda & Allied military forces.
Opium production is the 2 ton elephant no one wants to admit is dumping all over the nation of AFGN and financing all kinds of mayhem in the Mid East.
Its is my contention that anyone who claims to support rebuilding the infrastructure of war torn AFGN hasn’t actually been there. We’re talking 17th Century living standards and a theocratic mind set that goes with it.
As a VN veteran who spent decades researching all the great books written about that conflict, I am disgusted that so many of the hard lessons learned have been forgotten regarding our military involvement in AFGN. Herodotus, after a millenia or so, is still pertinent.
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With due respect, there is far too much emphasis on those in Afghanistan being engaged in what can only be termed, Global Politics”. The realities are far simpler than that. At the regional level, the interest is village, tribal, religious and family affiliations. Most Afghans know who the Taliban are. Most would have one or more of their family or tribal participating in activities of support for the Taliban. It is a power base that individually they are otherwise are not connected to, AK democracy so to speak.
Karzai himself is ineffective so far as the total political scene is concerned. Provincial leaders are delegated by regional warlords who hold the main sway with differing factions controlling different regions where various tribes and religious factions exist. All Karzai can do is bow down to the most powerful in each region in a vague acceptance of peace but more in order to benefit from the vast input that the international forces are committing. These warlords are now multi-multi millionaires and although their official militias have been disbanded, they still control a significant security personal or tribal inspired militia to prevent their dislocation otherwise.
The major mistake that has been made in Afghanistan is internationalizing the issues instead of forcing them back into a village, bottom based democracy that give each village a voice in affecting who will be the district leaders and then who will be the provincial leaders. In each case these higher levels should be answerable to the villagers them self through their shura, as should the district security forces and police. Instead power is conferred from Kabul in a form of top down patronage instead that reduces and in fact eliminates the village dissension. The further removed from Kabul, the more corrupt is the administration.
The only possibility of bring peace to Afghanistan is eliminating the power structure that a top down model imposes and give that power to the people, through their village and district shuras with clear mandates and rules on eliminating individual power structures. Without that, all you have is a well organized Mafia structure that will continue to manage dissension while ever the international community keep stoking the fires with cash.
(I have spent three and a half years working on and off at various levels in the field and as Ministerial adviser in Afghanistan since 2002)