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Khalil Nouri: Afghanistan: — Danger Looms if Afghan Vice President & Warlord becomes Country’s President.

By Khalil Nouri STAFF WRITER / EDITOR

What some Afghan natives and analysts call the most dangerous part of the world has reached a critical juncture, “a tipping point”. Per Guardian and New York Times reports, “President Hamid Karzai has lost faith in the US strategy in Afghanistan and is increasingly looking to Pakistan to end the insurgency.”

Qasim Fahim--Afghan Vice President

Rest assured that this is wishful thinking on Mr. Karzai’s part; it is a pipedream. Pakistan may not even want to waste their time to contemplate. In fact, the window of opportunity has long gone when Mr. Karzai’s intimacy with Pakistan’s arch rival India, who allegedly supported the Northern Alliance for many years in Afghanistan, is still considered a threat in the minds of some top Pakistani government officials. In hindsight, Karzai’s own instability and insanity is now considered the greater threat.

However, the most recent event in Kabul was the beginning of a panic mode within the Karzai government’s inner circle when two—most admired by the West—of his confidants; the senior intelligence chief Mr. Amrullah Saleh and the head of the Afghan interior ministry Mr. Hanif Atmar were both sacked from their positions.

According to a New York Times report, Mr. Karzai’s motive for the firings was to allegedly comply with Pakistan’s demand to be rid Mr. Saleh (ethnically a Tajik and once a confidant to Ahmad Shah Masoud) who as a hardliner railed against Karzai’s desire for reconciliation efforts to bring the Taliban to the table. That said, according to a reliable source in Kabul, another Karzai inner circle official, Vice President and powerful warlord Marshal Qasim Fahim (also a Tajik and a hardliner) is anxiously showing his interest in securing his own foothold in these game changing times. The source said, “He could go for the kill by securing the president’s position … (for himself)… in these panicky times.” If such a scenario were to ever develop, then Afghanistan is highly likely to spiral once again into a chaotic civil war between North and South.

When Karzai announced Mr. Fahim as his vice-president in the last election, many in Kabul alleged Mr. Fahim was at the time involved in criminal activities, including kidnapping for ransom; as well as human rights abuses during Afghanistan’s decades of war.

By choosing Mr. Fahim—with the blood of many Afghans on his hands—as his Vice-president, Mr. Karzai stained his own credibility even further. It also showed a lack of sanity on the part of Karzai for putting himself and the whole nation into such a delicate and risky predicament.

In any case, the source further said, “there is no doubt that Mr. Karzai in an accidental circumstance or … (any other drastic outcome)… could lose his presidency and Mr. Fahim who is second in charge – …(and according to)… the Afghan constitution–has the legitimate right to assume the position of the Afghan president for himself.” He further said that if this ever were to happen, “We will see a blood bath between ethnic Pashtuns and Tajiks all over Afghanistan.”

Moreover, with the support of the well trained 60 percent ethnic Tajik majority dominating the Afghan National Army and Police, it is highly likely to give enough confidence to the former Northern Alliance leader for him to believe that he could withstand any offense by the Pashtuns from Southern and Eastern parts of the country.

It remains to be seen as to what the upcoming Afghan parliamentary elections and the international conference on Afghanistan in Kabul evolves into, but our native Afghan analysis suggest that a plan must be drafted for a viable alternative solution just in case panicking officials within the Karzai government should act in ways that would cause massive societal disruptions.

The difficulty here is the problem of even bringing up the delicate subject of a change of government in Afghanistan. But, the legitimacy of the Karzai government is questioned by major Afghan tribal leaders, by the general Afghan public, and by the opposition who have been labeled in the western world as the Taliban; all have a stake in this matter. And, there is an emerging consensus within the whole nation of Afghanistan that is calling for the return of a Head of State with limited political power who can represent all Afghans. There is a growing call for a descendant of the former king to be made Head of State; someone who would be above politics, a constitutional monarch, a new Afghan King who represents the nation and unites all Afghans around the world. Politics would be relegated to the Prime minister, his deputy ministers and a Parliament. The national police and army would be relegated to protecting the king, and each province would have its own police and Provincial Guard military force. The Provincial Guard would act like America’s National Guard who could be called forth by the King and his select league of tribal elders or the prime minister to protect the nation.

This process starts by communicating with all Afghan tribal leaders who would then choose a special group of elders, a select league. This select league of elders would convene a series of leadership conferences inside and outside of Afghanistan. They would first meet to choose royal candidates for the Afghan Head of State. They would then travel to several capitals within the region before traveling on to capitals in the western world; and finally they would visit the United Nations in New York City as special guests. During this process, elders will have time to assess what is needed in the individual that they will choose as Head of State when they return home, based upon their own experiences in the world that they discover outside of Afghanistan; and having the time to screen out any bad blood inside their group if necessary, while building up the spirit of unity among themselves.

By traveling the world before selecting their King, the select tribal elders would see for themselves what is needed in the leader they select. The goal is to create a true Afghan democracy based on Afghan consciousness and consensus, while bringing Afghanistan’s people into the 21st Century; and by recognizing today’s status of facts on the ground as well as yesterdays tribal governing traditions, a bridge between yesterday’s successes and 21st Century needs can be created and strengthened.

From this group a number of things can be accomplished, like having these leaders put forth the names of young people who they see as future leaders that can to be trained in the ideas of traditional Afghan values as well as 21st Century concepts that will benefit their nation for generations; always with great respect for the full integrity of Afghanistan’s need for unique multi-tribal balancing influences.

Khalil Nouri is the cofounder of New World Strategies Coalition Inc., a native think tank for nonmilitary solution studies for Afghanistan. www.nwscinc.org

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Posted by on Jun 13 2010, With 0 Reads, Filed under 9/11, AfPak, WarZone. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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31 Comments for “Khalil Nouri: Afghanistan: — Danger Looms if Afghan Vice President & Warlord becomes Country’s President.”

  1. Indeed this is the first time I am reading anywhere the vice president, Qasim Fahim has its eye on the presidency of Afghanistan. So, this is allegations are only rehric, perposterous and baseless. Infact such obsurd views could take the attention away for the real issues and status-quo, which is, how to deal with Alquida and their Talian partners?

    Day by day Mr Karzi is losing confidence in his government, relationship with his international partners (who brought him to power in the first place) and the ability of the international forces to defeat Alqida and the Taliban, this in itself should be a cause of concern for the international community. Mr Karzi’s recent remarks to his former security chief (Amrullah Saleh) manifests his willingness to work with Taliban as a partner, over international community.

    The real problem in afghanistan is Taliban, Alquida and other terrorist organistaions,however, a few (like the article above) either knowingly or unknowingly, try to hide this fact and divert the attention of the international community away by fabrication and unimportant issues.

    regards,

    Zaman Hakim

    • The word is “IF”, and logically he is entitled by the constitution of Afghanistan to be the President of the nation. If he is appoint the question is then what?
      There is nothing wrong what is said. You maybe a little uncomfortable with the above notion but that is the consequence of Jeffersonian democracy which does not work.

      BTW, is Mr. VICE PRESIDENT your hero? He certainly is not mine nor majority of Afghans from all over Afghanistan.

      I am glad you heard this tale here first! Because the forum uses logic!

  2. Hassina Youssof

    This is hopeful, is it just an idea or is it happening

  3. Isser Harel – Spymaster of the Israeli Intelligence Services. Director of Mossad and Shin Bet from 1952-1963.

    In 1979, twenty-one years before September 11, 2001, Isser Harel predicted with uncanny accuracy the events of 9-11 to Michael D. Evans, an American supporter of Zionist extremists of the Jabotinsky sort.

    On September 23, 1979, Evans visited Harel at his home in Israel and had dinner with him and Dr. Reuven Hecht, a senior adviser to then prime minister Menachem Begin.

    In an editorial entitled “America the Target”, published in the Jerusalem Post of September 30, 2001 Evans — a Khazar Jew masquerading as a Christian — asked Harel about Arab terrorism and if it would come to America. Harel told Evans that Arab terrorists would likely strike the “tallest building in New York City” because it was a “phallic symbol”. The fact that 9/11 was planned by the Mossad through the admittance of Isser Harel is well documented and appears in a book written by Michael Evans

  4. US Military: “100% Certain That 911 Was A Mossad Operation, Period”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh06KlWqv2U&NR=1

    http://republicbroadcasting.org/?p=7318
    AIPAC of Raving Lunatics

    http://www.mikepiperreport.com/

  5. AIPAC OF LUNATICS
    AIPAC OF LUNATICS
    US Military: “100% Certain That 911 Was A Mossad Operation, Period”
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh06KlWqv2U&NR=1

  6. HOW SOON WILL THE FEDRALZ GOOBERMENTZ
    DISPATCH PREDATOR DRONES TO ARIZONA
    TO PROTECT FOREIGN INVADERS & THEIR ACCOMPOLICES
    FROM THE ” INSURGENT ARIZONIANS ”
    CAN YOU FEEL THE FREEDOM ?????????

  7. there is currently a top secret

    invasion of America by

    Millions of Mexicans & other millions of

    foreign invaders !!!!

    HOW DO I NOTIFY THE PENTAGON ????????????

  8. Hello, Nice article I hope some change come in our homeland and free us from this corrupt team of Karzai

    • Salih,

      Change will come, but remember if the people do not remain vigilant, informed and of common purpose, that change can and likely will often be for the worse.

      “Change we can believe in”, Mr. Obama? Kindly define “we”?

      • Not to interrupt a family discussion from an outsider. Afghan’s need to be also vigilant of those that want division inside the country. There is an old saying, “To Divide is to Conquer”. Afghans now more then ever need to do like poster above said *stay focused* on the outcome from daily won goals of a peaceful united Afghanistan..

  9. To over-simplify, the US established a government of the minorities after taking out the (Pashtun)”Taliban”, with a token Pashtun as president.And based on statements of some Pashtuns in Helmand a couple of years ago, there will be no peace as long as the Karzai government is in power. It is not considered a legitimate government by many if not most Pashtuns but a corrupt government selected by and being kept in power by a foreign non-Muslim military occupational force. Unacceptable. As Louis Dupree pointed out years ago, Daoud ended the unity of the country when he abolished the kingship, although it held together until his death because many saw him as an extension of the kinship under a different name. It seems unlikely that the minorities who presently hold the (contested) power in the country would accept the re-establishment of the kingship regardless of who might be selected.Number one point in politics is to first retain power. The foreign powers seem to think that if the insurgency can be “defeated” peace can be restored but in many areas, I think, the insurgency is mostly made up of “the people” reacting to what they see as an illegitimate corrupt government, as noted above. Certainly it would be a great recruiting tool to get the young underemployed men to join the opposition. When you read in the media about Tajik speaking police and army people attempting to function in Pashtun Helmand, you have to wonder who is calling the shots.
    Perhaps the recent removal of the northern alliance representative and perhaps a person associated with the Soviets during that era equates with what Daoud was attempting to do when he began removing communists from his government…which lead to his downfall.

    • Dick,

      You have spelled out the entire facts very well. The only thing that I might have difference in opinion with you is that that the minorities have no choice but to go with the dominance by the majority. And if the majority accepts a policy that well suits their interest then so bit it. Everybody must go with flow.
      I thank you for your posting.

  10. Khali,

    History repeating itself with the rise of the warlods, and an end to fragile democrocy. This is what the people were promised would not happen again, and what let to the rise of Taliba.

    Today i was reading on the BBC an LSE report about how The ISI funding and supporting the Taliban. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/10302946.stm

    As an ordinary Afghan, it always confuses me that all these super powers and great minds are only wise in hindsight when it comes to Afghanistan.

    Afghanistan is essentially a tribal country and it is only through the tribes lasting peace would be found. Therefore, i support your views in this area.

    • Let me make a fool of myself a moment. Zaman Zaheen.

      Your statement regarding the west’s super powers brilliant minds is astoundingly true. They are not so brilliant, nor are they creative. They want to re fight the Indian wars in the US.

      I just had an insight of how the US fought the Vietnam war. They fought it like they fought the American Indians. In Vietnam this old west way to wage war failed because uncle Ho Chi Min understood what the Americans were doing.

      I know American military historians love to say the US military won all the battles in Vietnam. They did not win one battle at least from my ground view. I was up front and personal in some famous battles of that war. The Vietnamese always chose when to fight and they fought well.

      When the Taliban figure out how Americans fight and adjust it will be the end of American involvement in Afghanistan.

      In the American Indians case they did not know war as fought by the European and did not have the infrastructure to fight the so called white man. They died slowly away. Their grandchildren today suffer from this catastrophe.

      What I am saying is this, nothing is going to be won on the battlefield alone. The only good the military force is in it’s ability to back up tribal leaders, and the central government.

      All the work in Afghanistan, or should be is in working with tribal leaders. The central government should be doing what the consensus of agreements between tribal leaders. Not the other way around. To me this is democracy.

      In the end it will be the tribal leaders who say how the central government will work. Not the Americans EuroAmericans, or Pakistani’s. American or NATO forces should work for the tribal leaders. At least this should be the idealistic goal. I have a feeling Americans need to have a little humility in this regard.

      But before this is all done tribal leaders have to be brought into the 21st century.

      Now that I embarrassed myself I will shut up.

    • The ISI support of the Talibans have been known to everyones, since Benazir Bhutto was in power in Pakistan, and only The US goverment is in denial of that and they are still supporting Pakistan financially for their disruptions of Afghanistan. Pakistan have been using the US, and allies money against them by recruiting, training, and sheltering Talibans for the last 15 years.

      On another note, the time for monarchy in Afghanistan is over, and nobody will agree to another King in Afghanistan,and the unity of the tribal leaders are the most important issue in the satbility of Afghanistan, but the tribal leaders donot trusta Karzai, and his government, so, what is the solution?

    • Thank you Zaman Jan for your wonderful comment.

      At the beginning of the US operation in Afghanistan the view was the warlords will have a vital role in Afghanistan by keeping the security intact while the Americans and are on their Al Qeada hunt. This was very much the Policy Mr. Khalilzad created and Mr. Karzai … See Moreimplemented. We are seeing a “Saqaw” era of 21st century Afghanistan where no one knows how long this warlordims will last.

      The goal should be, however, that every person irrelevant to their ethnicity be held liable for their atrocities being committed against humanity specifically the Dasht-e-Lailee genocide of 2001. There should not be any resentment towards ethnicities, but individuals who perpetuated those war crimes.

  11. Khalil Nouri,

    A heriditary Pashtun monarcy will not be allowed to be set up in Afghanistan, by the people of that land – the real people – the people whom have paid the highest price to keep that land free from becoming a British/Russian/Pakistani colony.

    The only way forward is a parlimentary democracy – with an elected President of limited political powers.

    • However, there is no such word as election in Afghanistan and it will never work—waste of money and time. Above all, with what budget and GDP can Afghanistan sustain its election every 5 years? People are in need of food and shelter more than they go to the polling stations and vote for a democratically elected president who rigs the votes.

      Memories should not fade away and the recent evidence speaks for itself.

      Was prior to Russian invasion a colonial time? Everything was moving foward moderately.

      Your view maybe applied in 60 to 70 years or even longer from now, but not now when the urban people still call Mr. Karzai “KING”

      Please give me another viable option because this Jeffersonian democracy is not working.

      • Hey K — Don’t pick on my great, great, great… grandfather Thomas Jefferson, even if you are right in this case. And yes, it is a 75 year problem (three generations). But, what if we put a TV in every house and hut? It’s cheaper than war. Would MTV, PBS, Fox News (for Duffster and Leon) and daily cartoons speed up the normal human cycle of change?

        Tom in Texas

        • Tom,

          I am laughing out loud.. I wish we could have given IPODS for everyone to play games or do something good with them .. Change of culture will not be easy .. They –Fox, PBS, MTV– are tough sell ..

          Upsettingly, the culture is very much has taken a turn towards Kalashnikov and Opiate

  12. Having never been to Afghanistan, but I have been to several areas of the isolated world where a tribal leaders had little understanding of the outside world.

    What seems clear to me and I agree with you when you said these leaders need to travel to the outside world to see what they are dealing with.

    It would be good for tribal leaders even ones that do not agree with NATO troop deployments to see what Europe and America looks like. Maybe a short tour of Fort Bragg, or the European Union Headquarters. Just floating ideas.

    It would be nice to have some of these tribal leaders understood a little about what culture these USAID NGO or US Special Forces folks come from, that seem to have godly control over their country.

    Afghan leaders at eye level face to face even lower ranking tribal leaders in need meetings with these EuroAmerican folks. Now they are are at a disadvantage when negotiating. The foreigners EuroAmericans know more then the tribal leaders do about how Afghanistan fits into the global world in the 21st century.

    • Archee, You said it all my friend .. Awesome !!

    • dont look every thing from the pakistan’s eye and especially its intelligence agency ISI, they have a big hand in afghanistan politics and they are the one who created and supporting insurgency in Afghanistan, they are afraid if afghanistan become a stable country that would be the end of kashmeer war and pakistan not only lose kashmeer but NWFP and they know that supporting insurgency is in their best interest.

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