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When in doubt, give a Middle East speech

So let the speeches begin. Who knows? Maybe in some turn of phrase or dangling participle lurks the key to Middle East peace. Certainly, talking is a lot better than shooting.

Aaron David Miller / FP

The problem with all these initiatives is that none have a strategy to move from words to deeds. The Palestinians actually come closest with their U.N. initiative, but this is, under the best of circumstances, a dangerous leap in the dark unlikely to produce real statehood — and more likely to generate trouble. All these budding initiatives have the feel of a game of “gotcha” or musical chairs designed to deflect or pre-empt pressure and put it on someone else — to see, in effect, who’s the odd man out when the music stops.

Negotiations remain the only realistic path forward, but the gaps on the core issues are too large to bridge at present. Or to put it more explicitly, Israeli and Palestinian leaders are too constrained to bridge them; the Arab world is too distracted to bring much focus to the problem; and the United States is too unsure about how or what to do about any of the above. As Shultz noted, it’s the perfect time to give a speech.

That the Obama administration is thinking about laying out its own views on borders, Jerusalem, security, and refugees when there’s no chance of actual negotiations tells you how virtual the peace process has become. The sad reality is that right now the default position is the declaratory one. Unless Netanyahu comes up with something really credible on borders upon which Obama can build, like a chain of falling dominoes we will be drawn inexorably toward more (and unhelpful) Palestinian declarations in New York, and likely more unilateralism and violence.

The only conceivable logic in the president laying out detailed positions on borders, Jerusalem, security, and refugees would be to first improve American credibility in the Middle East, though how a speech that Israelis and Palestinians reject or accept with reservations helps the United States isn’t altogether clear. In fact, it could undermine America’s influence, becoming the foreign-policy equivalent of BP’s Deepwater Horizon disaster: day 80 and nobody’s plugged the leak or accepted the Obama plan. The only other possible utility of such a speech would be to attempt to pre-wire it so that the Palestinians accept the parameters for negotiations and are willing to come back to the table on that basis.

Netanyahu would then be forced to choose, or face the consequences in Israeli domestic politics (should ties with the United States fray) and internationally. Washington has never played this hand particularly well, and if the perception is that Obama is trying to set the Israelis up, it certainly won’t help the president as he heads into a reelection campaign. But this gambit isn’t about getting the two sides to the table soon; it’s about regime change in Israel — never declared of course, but like U.S. Libya policy, an unstated goal.

This unhappy state of affairs is a result of what happens when you face a truly tough problem that nobody has the will or determination to take on. And when unilateral solutions (Gaza disengagement) and bilateral ones (a decade of negotiations on permanent status) backfire; when interim solutions (along the lines of the Oslo Accords) no longer pass muster; and when violence (the 2006 Israel-Hamas war) can’t seem to change the calculations of the parties, you arrive at a nasty impasse.

The short answer to whether the Israelis and Palestinians are ready for a conflict-ending agreement is no. And can Washington do anything about it? Not much. Obama could travel to Israel and Palestine to lay out his ideas, appearing with Arab leaders (if there are any left) in both the Knesset and the Palestinian Legislative Council; he could commit millions of international dollars in the service of Palestinian statehood. But the chances that he would actually risk this, or that such a gambit could work under the current circumstances, are slim to none.

Or in the less-than-bold category, Obama could simply give his speech laying out the core positions on the key issues with no real expectation that talks would begin, try to work with Israelis and Palestinians on economic and security matters, and wait for reelection to try something more dramatic. But the simple fact is that Washington needs the locals to buy into something for there to be a real breakthrough; and that’s unlikely to happen.

So let the speeches begin. Who knows? Maybe in some turn of phrase or dangling participle lurks the key to Middle East peace. Certainly, talking is a lot better than shooting.

But tragically, history has shown that when the speeches are over, there will be plenty of time for that.

Aaron David Miller is a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. His book, Can America Have Another Great President?, will be published later this year.

Short URL: http://www.veteranstoday.com/?p=98606

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Posted by on Apr 26 2011, With 0 Reads, Filed under Israel, Middle East, Palestine, World. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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14 Comments for “When in doubt, give a Middle East speech”

  1. Cloak And Dagger

    “Unless Netanyahu comes up with something really credible on borders upon which Obama can build, like a chain of falling dominoes we will be drawn inexorably toward more (and unhelpful) Palestinian declarations in New York, and likely more unilateralism and violence.”

    I disagree completely.

    Having the Palestinians declare their pre-1967 state and have the UN accept it would be the most helpful thing possible at the moment.The US is completely incapable of being a fair arbitrator and the concerted force of all the nations of the planet joining in BDS of Israel is the only way forward now.

    Having the Palestinians declare their state will open the floodgates of boycotts and sanctions on Israel and force them to abandon their nazi ways in the face of the wrath of humanity.

      • REMEMBER..J.F.K...FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!

        http://whtt.org/newwhtt/main.php?nid=3740&ncateid=1
        Jesus and Judgment Day, A message to Christ followers and peacemakers of all religions
        Charles E. Carlson Dec 24, 2010

        We should ignore the un-Christlike example of most religious celebrities and political leaders and instead follow the example of George Frederic Handel, who wrote “The Messiah,” the most sung and listened to Christmas work ever. Most Celebrity leaders would claim they love Handel’s Messiah. But they fear to live the words, for the overwhelming theme in the almost 300 pages of music and lyrics is love and peace.
        Handel wrote the Messiah in 1741, a time of ongoing turmoil and wars in Europe and coming conflict in our new world; Warmakers were busy at work in every court in Europe. In its challenging arias and choruses, taken from Old and New Testament scriptures, Jesus is revealed as the peacemaker, the humble and meek, the teacher, the victim of violence, The mighty spiritual king, and finally the hope of mankind.

      • REMEMBER..J.F.K...FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!

        http://www.rense.com/general41/aagi.htm
        Against Israel Against God -
        Christian Zionists
        By Khalid Amayreh
        AlJazeera.net
        9-2-3

      • REMEMBER..J.F.K...FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!

        The Zionist-Created
        Scofield ‘Bible’
        The Source Of The Problem In The Mideast – Part 2
        Why Judeo-Christians Support War
        By C. E. Carlson
        12-11-4

        The French author, Alexis de Tocqueville, wrote Democracy in America when he traveled here in the first third of the 19th Century. In ringing tones he sang the praises of America’s invulnerable strength and spirit. He attributed its greatness to its citizens’ sense of morality… even with the abundant church attendances he observed in America. De Tocqueville wrote in French and is credited with this familiar quote: AMERICA IS GREAT BECAUSE SHE IS GOOD, AND IF AMERICA EVER CEASES TO BE GOOD, SHE WILL CEASE TO BE GREAT.

        De Tocqueville could see the power of America, but he could not have known in 1830 that she was soon to be under an attack aimed at its churches and the very sense of morality that he extolled.

        First, there was a War Between the States, which scarred the powerful young nation in its strapping youth. A worse attack on America was to commence near the turn of the 20th century. This was the onset of an attack on American Christianity that continues unabated against the traditional, Christ-following church. This attack, which author Gordon Ginn calls “The final Apostasy,” began with a small very wealthy and determined European political movement. It had a dream, and the American churches stood in its way.

        • REMEMBER..J.F.K...FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!

          The scheme was to alter the Christian view of Zionism by creating and promoting a pro-Zionist subculture within Christianity. Scofield’s role was to re-write the King James Version of the Bible by inserting Zionist-friendly notes in the margins, between verses and chapters, and on the bottoms of the pages. The Oxford University Press used Scofield, a pastor by then, as the Editor, probably because it needed such as man for a front. The revised bible was called the Scofield Reference Bible, and with limitless advertising and promotion, it became a best-selling “bible” in America and has remained so for 90 years.

          • REMEMBER..J.F.K...FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!

            National Prayer Network

            http://www.truthtellers.org/alerts/christianzionismwillkillpopulistrevolt.htm
            CHRISTIAN ZIONISM WILL KILL POPULIST REVOLT
            By Rev. Ted Pike
            12 Apr 10

            A fanatic is “possessed by an excessive and irrational zeal for a religious or political cause” (American Heritage Dictionary). Today, two types of fanaticism threaten the safety of our republic and the future of our populist revolt. The first is Christian Zionism. The second is right-wing calls for violence.

            Contradicting the Bible, Christian Zionism says Jews and Israel are favored above all other races and nations, no matter what they do. Most Christian Zionists believe God will curse anyone who criticizes Israel. Jewish supremacists—whose ancestors founded communism and its offspring, liberalism—today corrupt the Gentile world through their predominant influence in international banking, Congress, and big media. (See, Jewish Activists Created Communism and Jews Confirm Big Media Is Jewish) This weakening of Gentile power is encouraged by Jewish Talmudic/Kabbalistic scripture so that the Jewish messiah can someday rule the nations.

            Nevertheless, most Christian evangelicals ignorantly preach and practice ironclad non-criticism of everything Jewish. This formula is taken so far that no major Christian, conservative leadership group will criticize the Jewish Anti-Defamation League, despite its anti-Christian, pro-homosexual agenda and creation of Christian-persecuting hate crime laws worldwide.

            The second fanaticism that threatens freedom is revealed in those who call for imminent violence to overthrow our government. An example may be the nine Hutaree militia members who allegedly planned to jumpstart revolution by killing a policeman, then bombing police at his funeral. If guilty as charged, the Hutaree held both forms of fanaticism. Their website displays “Seven Reasons Why Christians Should Support Israel.” Contrary to media spin, they were not anti-Semitic. Their stated intent of supporting Israel unconditionally is the same position held by Pastor John Hagee, Dr. Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson. A militia leader told me that in 2007 he visited the now arrested leader of the Hutarees, David Brian Stone; he said Stone’s headquarters were decorated with flags of Israel and the leader angrily denounced any critique of Israel as “anti-Semitic.”

            Renewal Will Be Undermined

            This underscores an ominous reality. Pro-Israel fanaticism, with its welcoming invitation to supremacist Jews, runs so deep everywhere in the Christian right that it would continue, even if a government overthrow did take place. The pattern of supremacist Jews hijacking a conservative “revolution” already occurred in recent history. In 1980, Ronald Reagan accomplished his own coup against liberalism. The “Reagan Revolution” brought new respect for conservatism in America. Immediately, Jews flooded the movement, creating the Jewish “neoconservative” faction of the Republican Party. This Jewish lobby’s insistence on special favors to Israel helped pressure Pres. George W. Bush to invade Iraq, protecting Israel from Saddam’s “weapons of mass destruction” – which were never found. The same Jewish neo-cons goaded Bush to invade Afghanistan after 9/11, again to secure the safety of Israel. These two wars, promoted by Israeli dual-loyalists high in Republican circles, gave the Democrats the anti-war issue they needed to end Republican credibility and elect Obama. Now, the same pressure is witheringly applied on the Obama administration to take military action against Iran, again to insure the safety of a greater Israel.

            What does America really need?

            Through education and return to sound, Biblical interpretation, we need to overthrow the power of Jewish supremacism. It will do little good to topple the present government if this is not confronted. With incredible speed, supremacist Jews will only resurface like toxic mushrooms after a thundershower. Incredibly, triumphant evangelicals like Sarah Palin would be the first to invite such Jews to participate. A violent revolution would only substitute one Jewish-controlled government for another.

            Instead, there must be a complete willingness to examine Jewish power and motives, and how they brought us to the straits we are in. Up to this point, Christian, conservative leaders have refused such inquiry. What America needs now is not radical revolution—but radical reevaluation of how supremacist Jews have ruined, and will continue to ruin, our hopes.
            Rev. Ted Pike is director of the National Prayer Network, a Christian/conservative watchdog organization.

            TALK SHOW HOSTS: Interview Rev. Ted Pike on this subject. Call (503) 631-3808.

            The freedom-saving outreach of Rev. Ted Pike and the National Prayer Network is solely supported by sale of books, videos and your financial support. All gifts are tax-deductible.

  2. REMEMBER..J.F.K...FOREVER!!!!!!!!!!

    A Warning To The Muslim World By David Duke –
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWL3Gt_0qYM

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