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The Shootdown of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370

912

 by Michael Shrimpton

 

At 0130 hours local time last Saturday, March 8th (this is being written on the 15th) a Chinese SSK, believed to be a 636 Kilo class, shot down a Malaysian airliner, Boeing 777-2H6ER, 9M-MRO, Captain Zaharie Shah in command, off the coast of South Vietnam.  The Chinese murdered a total of 239 people, all the souls on board.

The Kilo surfaced but stayed hull-down, i.e. presented a low radar signature.  She fired a Chinese-made copy of the excellent Hughes Aircraft AIM-54A Phoenix missile, supplied to Iran in the 1970s.  The Chinese version appears to be multi-mode, with infra-red, terminal radar and semi-active homing guidance.  It appears as though semi-active mode was selected.  The Kilo was to the starboard of the 777’s track, possibly having sortied from the Hainan Submarine Base.  Interception range appears to have been fairly short, perhaps 25 miles, well within the capabilities of the Phoenix, which famously could engage targets over 100 nautical miles from their F-14 mother-ships.

Captain Shah appears to have seen the incoming.  Its exhaust trail would have been clearly visible at night.  If the missile was in semi-active homing mode and he did not deactivate his radar then it would have locked on, following him as he turned back toward the Malaysian coast.   The Chinese sub jammed his HF and VHF frequencies, as did the Iranian Kilo in the Air France AF447 shootdown in 2009, preventing a Mayday call.

As the unlawful seizure of my book and working papers in 2012 pushed back publication of Spyhunter by at least nine months airline pilots are unaware of my recommendation, following Air France, that the primary mode of communicating a Mayday message in the event of missile attack should be ACARS, or Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System.  Being satellite-based and digital it is much more difficult to jam.  The Bad Guys of course are aware of Spyhunter, which was after all seized and thoroughly analyzed, reportedly sending Dachau and Peking into shock, given its high level of accuracy and the devastating revelations it contains (if all y’all will excuse the ad the publishers, June Press, in Totnes, Devonshire, are now accepting advance orders – publication is scheduled for next month, price £25, ISBN 978-0-9927501-0-7).

The latest reporting, that the airplane’s ACARS was disabled shortly after MH370 crossed the Malaysian coast, has the ring of truth about it.  ACARS can be disabled, although it is not as easy as jamming radios.  Good pilots – and Captain Shah was a good pilot – follow their training in emergencies.  That training, sadly, is inadequate to deal with missile attack.

All airline pilots on transoceanic crossings should be trained to treat ACARS disablement as an immediate, life-threatening emergency.  In my as ever humble opinion (and all y’all know how humble I am!) they should:

(1)   Secure the cabin for radical evasive maneuvers.

(2)   If they are within 30 minutes of land, turn immediately towards it, going to TOGA power as they do so.  If not, power should be reduced immediately to flight idle and an emergency descent initiated to no higher than FL100, with immediate cabin depressurization, squawking 7700. 

(3)   The APU, if online, should be shut down immediately (that was probably how KAL007 was acquired).

(4)   The pilot not in command should immediately deactivate all onboard radar systems, including the radar altimeters, declare an emergency online, if they still have connectivity, and by radio, if they still have a carrier wave.  If the radios are jammed the pilots should assume that their aircraft has been acquired by hostile fire control radar and is about to come under medium range surface to air missile attack. Passengers should be advised to brace for high-speed missile impact and don, but not inflate, their life jackets.  Under NO CIRCUMSTANCES should the pilot in command attempt to outclimb or outrun the missile.  He or she should assume a missile speed of Mach 3.5 plus in an ascending attack and up to Mach 5 for a long-range descending attack on semi-ballistic trajectory.

(5)  All crew including cabin crew should be alerted to watch for incoming. 

(6)  The pilot in command should assume terminal radar guidance and delay evasive maneuvers for as long as possible, and not before visual confirmation of the incoming.  Evasive maneuvers should be radical and the airplane should be taken to her airframe g-limits.  The trick to evading a guided missile in an unarmed aircraft not equipped with countermeasures is to leave your maneuver until the last possible moment and make it as radical as you safely can, in order to break the missile’s lock on you, and

(7)  If successful the pilot in command should assume a reload capability within 15 minutes, go to TOGA power and escape the target area at the fastest possible speed, disregarding all airframe speed limits and the 250 knot limit below FL100.  He or she should assume that the airframe may have been overstressed, maintain 7700 emergency squawk and order the pilot not in command to broadcast a Mayday message via any viable communication system.  As the airplane heads away from Dodge radio jamming should cease.        

THE US NAVY HITS BACK

Happily the US Navy, a.k.a. the Good Guys, fought back.  It looks like the USS Pinckney (DDG-91), God Bless her, whacked the Chinese Kilo, hence the diesel slick on the surface of the ocean, in an area where no surface vessel was reported.  Aviation fuel is light and disperses.   Diesel fuel in an area of suspected hostile SSK activity + no diesel-powered surface vessel in the area + powerful surface combatant with stand-off anti-submarine capability within range usually = subsmash.

Way to go the Pinckney!  So far as I know (Gordon?) she could be the first US Navy surface vessel ever to have engaged the PLA Navy in combat.  My respectful congratulations to Commander Frank Okata and her crew, especially the dedicated team in the Combat Information Center.  Her job done, on behalf of humanity and Western Civilization, she has now docked at Changi.  I am not hearing that there were cheering crowds, or even a brass band to play Anchors Aweigh, which is disgraceful.  If you live in her home port, which I think is still San Diego, please make sure that you give her a big welcome when she gets home.  She deserves a battle star.  Someone should paint the silhouette of a Chinese submarine in an appropriate place.  It could always be covered up for visiting weanies from Washington.

I gather there were some frantic messages from Peking after the realization hit home that there had been a subsmash in the South China Sea.  I also gather that the White House were pretty frantic too, indeed there was probably an outbreak of mini-hysteria, although I didn’t ring the Situation Room to enquire (yes I have that number, but it’s only for emergencies, not for collecting scuttlebutt for this week’s column!!).    They are now sending US warships on wild goose chases in the Indian Ocean.  It’ll be the Great Southern Ocean next, indeed we are now hearing that the search has been extended to Kazakhstan.  Any moment now I am expecting Thames Valley Police to join the search, making house to house enquiries in Berkshire to see if anybody has seen a lost Malaysian Boeing 777, possibly on Slough High Street.  The search will be conducted anywhere but where the plane was shot down and the Kilo followed her to the bottom.

Pinckney should get a Presidential Unit Citation.  If she were a Royal Navy vessel there would be an extra rum ration, or at least there would be if Royal Navy men-of-war still carried rum!  Sadly we wimped out on the rum ration some years ago – something about the First Sea Lord not wanting sailors tanked up on rum running loose around guided weapons systems.  Idiot!

At this time a former Secretary of the Navy of my acquaintance is not denying a word of this.  I hope that airmen and women everywhere will spare a thought and a prayer for poor Captain Shah and his dedicated crew.

MOTIVE

It seems there was someone of interest on the plane.  There is a bitter internal power struggle going on in China right now.  It seems like a powerful faction, backed by the DVD, was behind the attack.  The other faction are Chinese nationalists, rather than ideological communists, closer to those nice people the Kuomintang than any communist party member has a right to be.  It’s interesting that most of the outrage seems to be coming from nationalist outlets in China.

THE AIRLINE

Malaysian Airlines grew out of Malaysia-Singapore Airlines, which in turn grew out of the original Malaya Airways, which started out in 1946 with a single Airspeed Consul.  The Consul was very much a mini-airliner!  Older readers, especially those who served in South East Asia, may well recall the MSA Boeing 707s, with their attractive yellow livery.

They are a good airline.  I’ve only flown with them twice, each time in first class, from Melbourne to KL and KL to London.  Service was excellent, and there were showers in the first class lounge at KL.  Their aircraft are well-maintained and their crews well-trained.  I see no conceivable basis for criticising Captain Shah, a dedicated and vastly experienced airman, his crew, nor the airline.

THE PLANE

The Boeing 777 has an excellent safety record.  There have only been two 777 crashes of any note, and one of those (BA Flight 38 at Heathrow) was down to Chicom/DVD sabotage of the FADEC software controlling the engines.  The engines – Rolls-Royce Trents – have an equally good record.  There is no reason at all to suspect a catastrophic failure of the airframe, or engine failure.  The aircraft could have maintained her altitude of FL350 (35,000 ft) on one engine only.

WEATHER

Flying conditions that night were good.  You can forget weather.

IED

You can also forget terrorism.  Had the airplane been destroyed in mid-air we would be seeing a wide distribution of wreckage.  Hijacking is also out, not least as the hijack squawk code was not activated.

COUNTERMEASURES

All countries should now follow the sensible Israeli example and fit countermeasures to civilian airliners carrying out ocean crossings.  They need ECM as well as flares, to defeat terminal radar guidance and fire control radar.  They also need missile lock-on warning systems.  Special arrangements should be made as regards hull and passenger insurance.  Sensibly this could be picked up by the state of registry, with recovery in due course from the attacking state, either by seizure of assets, or reparations after military defeat.

NSA and ONI were on the ball, so it looks like naval retaliation is well in hand.  Losing their Kilo will make the Chicoms think twice.  I suspect the NSA got some nice overheads – missile exhaust at night is very visible, and the Phoenix is a Big Mama of an air-to-air missile.  ONI didn’t need much persuading of my analysis after AF447 that the Phoenix could be modified for Surface to Air launch, as the US Navy sensibly considered a 12-cell Phoenix as a successor to Sea Sparrow.  The boys at Hughes put together a serious proposal on that one.

Well done the NSA!  Another big intelligence success.  (As Gordon knows my policy is one of ‘all the way with the NSA’!).  If Obama whinges – and we know what a whinger he is – the boys at Meade could always drop a copy of that DNA report around to Congress, acting on an FOI Act request.  That would mean Joe Biden as President.  If Joe’s boys want a briefing they know where to reach me.

THE UKRAINE (NO MOVIE THIS WEEK)

This is coming along nicely.  Bad Guys are getting c….p on big time.  The Good Guys should win the vote in Crimea tomorrow (Sunday).  The Russians and Byelorussians are reported to be moving motorized rifle and armored divisions up to the Ukrainian frontier and the Russian Air Force is bringing its master target plot for the Ukraine up to date.  If the balloon goes up the Ukrainians will be rolled over big time.

TONY BENN

I have already expressed my condolences to the Labour Party and I extend them to Tony’s family.  We hardly agreed about anything after the 1980s but we always got on well, I liked and respected him and I was very sorry indeed to learn of his passing yesterday.  He was a true patriot.  A love of our country and our people informed his entire political career.  No one could say that he was not a conviction politician and I admired him for that.  We were hardly close, but we never had a cross word.

710 KNUS

Apologies to listeners in the Denver area to 710 KNUS.  I was due to be interviewed at 0700 Mountain Time yesterday, on the Peter Boyles Show.  I do occasionally make the odd cock-up (this is my natural humility showing through again!) and of course I forgot that your clocks went forward last Sunday!  Aaarrghh!  I am so accustomed to Mountain Time being 7 hours behind that I just diaried it for 1400 Zulu without thinking.  The boys at KNUS have been kind enough to say they will reschedule.

March 15th 2014

 

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36 Comments for “The Shootdown of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370”

  1. You stated clearly enough that an Iranian Submarine shot down an Air France Jet. Right?? I do not know if their is a polite way is to tell you what to do to yourself.

  2. Thank you, radiation and directed energy expert Leuren Moret, MA, PhD ABT for the only believable explanation at EcologyNews.com interview where she is allowed to tell all she knows without interruption. Moret cites chapter and verse of what she is speaking and we understand why the Navy won’t be announcing success. I love a scientifically plausible espionage/sabotage account that is better than the muddy water fairy tales we are being fed by Barbie and Ken. Sad that it seems a bit harder for women scientists to get the floor.

  3. A little levity this morning I think that the moral of the story of Spyhunter will be, “Those who get too big for their pants will be exposed in the end”.

  4. “All countries should now follow the sensible Israeli example and fit countermeasures to civilian airliners carrying out ocean crossings.”

    Nothing Israel does is “sensible.”

    Yes, Massoud Shakeri. It’s not just you. Many wonder if Shrimpton’s columns are a joke.

  5. Is it Michael Shrimpton or Schillton? Plane wasn’t destroyed by Chinese. Subpoena the U.S. Patent Office!

  6. While the article was an ‘interesting’ read, I wonder if Mr Shrimpton even ‘proof read’ his own article b/c he competely contradicts himself. Nice catch “paul cooke”.
    There is a very old saying in the military… “your pissing on my leg, and telling me its raining”. Well it SEEMED to me that after a few sentences, I had the feeling Mr Shrimpton was pissing all over the place.
    One of my favorite quotes go something like this “Nothing IS and IT seems”, and when dealing w/ the world of Intel (mindf#ck) ‘nothing is as stated’. Some interesting patterns of note. Immediately there was a divergnence of MSM and Net News. The lamestreet MSM blathered on about missing plane, while the net was already talking about the ‘planes transponders’, cell phones (company and personal) “ringing through” and several other unusal events. After the first 48 hrs the LameStreet Media was losing control of the ‘story’ and had to adjust in order to regain control (too late). So they started ‘reporting’ what the Net had been reporting 48 prior, but then introduced their own “conspiracy thoeries’. Blaming the pilots and air crew was particularly galling and idiotic. When the chowderheads at Canuckistan’s propanganda wing CBC started pointing to the PIC, I KNEW the crew had nothing to do with this.

  7. That damn bin Laden.

  8. Mr. Massoud Shakeri asks if DVD is a joke. No, it’s not a joke; I wish it were. It’s an acronym for the secret German intel agency, set up during WW2, that took over from the Abwehr. They faked Admiral Canaris’ execution. Previous articles of Mr. Shrimpton’s here at VT, as well as videos of his on the internet, will explain some of what happened after that.

  9. shredsandpatches

    The author’s tongue-in-cheek, self-deprecatory, chuckle-provoking writing is something I look forward to.

    In this case, though, the fate of those on the plane is sobering to ponder, and one must say a prayer for them.

    Check out jimstonefreelance dotcom for another take on this.

    • I checked Jim Stone’s site. Interesting item March 21, rumor about the plane being taken to the Maldives. For what it’s worth, here is wiki page about the international airport there.
      ***http //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mal%C3%A9_International_Airport***

    • Actually, there are 2 international airports in the Maldives. Wiki info “Ibrahim Nasir International Airport (IATA MLE, ICAO VRMM), more commonly known as Malé International Airport, previously known as Hulhulé Airport, is the main international airport in the Maldives. It is located on Hulhulé Island in the North Malé Atoll, nearby the capital island Malé.
      Today, Ibrahim Nasir International is well connected with major airports around the world, mostly serving as the main gateway into the Maldives for tourists. Moreover, despite the upgrading of Gan Airport to international standard, Ibrahim Nasir International is currently the only internationally active airport in the country.”
      The second airport is Gan Int’l. “Gan International Airport (IATA GAN, ICAO VRMG) is located on the island of Gan in Addu Atoll (previously known as Seenu Atoll) in the Maldives.[1]“

  10. Something about how the plane keep flying, kept sending sigs to satts, doesn’t mesh. Me think’s it’s disinfo because there are far too many people claiming knowledge who most always end up being wrong. Something also tells me that these are under the employ of intel agencies.

    Not being able to discern a location is BS. So I do agree with one writer, it’s been made to be a ghost on purpose because of some event…..now if it was indeed shot down, at night, under clear skies…..why didn’t anyone see it?

    Raptor

  11. Latest update from Susan Duclos @ https //www.youtube.com/watch?v=doaXsfSnDkM

  12. Michael,

    not them DVD’s again. If a communist wanted an international Private Company to be nationalized, don’t You think both communists and nationalists are the same thing. Or both of so called them thought that nation should be privatized to some international bank which makes them both bolsheviks.

  13. The Raw Prawn can’t even write fiction effectively … possibly why his self-promoted “Spy Hunter” will never be published.

    It is beyond me why VT publishes this kind of garbage, unless disrepute is desired.

    • Can’t you read? It is already being published. From article above, “June Press, in Totnes, Devonshire, are now accepting advance orders – publication is scheduled for next month, price £25, ISBN 978-0-9927501-0-7″. Here’s the website ***http //www.junepress.com/***

  14. Howard T.Lewis III

    Shrimp’s on the barbie!

  15. Go, finish Skyhunter (the book the world will never see).

    • Thanks, Stephan, for the advertisement. That is Spyhunter, not Skyhunter, available now through June Press at junepress.com. From article above, “June Press, in Totnes, Devonshire, are now accepting advance orders – publication is scheduled for next month, price £25, ISBN 978-0-9927501-0-7″. I’m ordering mine today, how about you?

  16. No German (DVD) involvement this time……how strange.

    • “It seems like a powerful faction, backed by the DVD, was behind the attack”

      Nah he couldn’t help himself once again. Had the Pinckney loosed an ASROC on the Sub who of in all likelihood would have been aware of the destroyer’s position it would have launched it’s Klub-N Anti-ship missiles (designed specifically to defeat Aegis systems) immediately in response.

      I want some of whatever you’re smoking Michael.

  17. I really feel sorry for you… Is that the price you pay?

  18. The aircraft has landed safely at the US base on Diego Garcia and is hidden in a B52 hanger! it was commandeered by people who knew the 777-200ER systems well enough to make it almost disappear but not quite.. Probably CIA black ops! Either there was a high value item or person on Board of great benefit to the USA or this aircraft will simply be painted in some other airlines colors filled with explosives and flown by the global hawk system into some other high value target.
    March 14 2014 Breaking News 20 employees on Flight MH370 RF Power Solutions for Aerospace and Defense Electronic warfare http //www.freescale.com/webap……
    Now we know why this plane was abducted High Value passengers on board. Preventing US techies taking their knowledge to China!
    As usual Mr Shrimpton your article is complete hog wash!

    • Yes, some say that with 4 of them declared dead the Rothschilds, owners of FS, can take over their most recent patent revolutionizing the whole semiconductor industry..
      Supposedly the plane also carried cargo from the MAERSK Alabama on which two very healthy Navy Seals died suddenly…

    • Your theory seems plausible, whereas the Raw Prawn swims around in a sea of fantasy.

  19. Mydog, go to the New Books section at Junepress. Spyhunter is the 12th book on the list. You can order it through Paypal or other means. Piece of cake.

    The book has an interesting cover, looks like the London Underground, so it must be a reference to the 7/7 bombing. Book blurb also mentions secret history of espionage since the 1100s, so maybe we’ll get some stuff about the Vikings and Chinese of the day.

  20. Correction, 11th century, so it’s the 1000s. And let’s not forget the Vatican, too.

  21. Mydog, an idea, if you are afraid of giving out all your details… Call your local bookstore chain, and ask them to order one for you. I can’t do that here in the US, not for a UK-published book. When the book arrives at the store, pay cash.

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