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Breaking: Turkey Beaten Before It Begins, Russia Outlines the Upcoming War (updated)


…from SouthFront

Introduction by  Gordon Duff and Jim Hanke, Editor’s Veterans Today

We want to thank South Front for this amazing video, perfectly timed.  The Syrian government has notified us that they believe that Turkey intends to send an armored force into Syria on Monday.  The US, Britain and France, have refused to stand behind any negotiations and have buckled under Erdogan’s pressure by opposing Russian moves at the UN.

They failed to understand the wider threat, that Turkey is not just moving on Russia but extending its influence into Europe, rebuilding the Ottoman empire where real gains can be made, into the Caucasus, the Caspian region and the Balkans.

Thus, the refugee crisis staged entirely by Turkey is taking down the EU, peeling Greece away, collapsing it economically and politically while Turkey begins its incursions across the Aegean by air to begin, more to come.

As the situation in Ukraine increasingly destabilizes, Turkey is sending in ISIS fighters, military advisors, weapons and working closely with Kiev on the manufacture and development of biological and chemical weapons to use against not just Russia, as has been reported in New Eastern Outlook’s series, now carried by the Guardian as well, on the Lugar Lab in Tbilisi, center for Turkish bio-warfare development.

Despite NATO’s moves in the Baltic, a handful of weapons to threaten Russia, this is little more than a hollow attempt to bolster what remains of European unity in the face of political moves to the extremist right, laying the ground for not just Brexit but the “Balkanization” of more than just the Balkans.

____________

Additional commentary from VT Military Editor, Colonel Jim Hanke, US Army Special Forces (ret)

You may have this a little wrong-  the Turks have enough combat power to go thru Syria to the Jordan/Saudi in about two weeks, even with the Russian presence in Syria.  without going into why, the thing that is stopping them from doing so is the 190K person exercise in the south of Russia that started a couple weeks ago.

Turkey would not last a month with that force invading from the North. The Turks know that, and all other strategists do, too. Ask the Russians, they will confirm that.

Nukes complicate the issue, but both sides can exist on the nuke battlefield.  It’s the rest of the country that may not.  The use of small tactical nuclear weapons is possible as they were used in the past. What you put out is good propaganda and will effect the politics near range. JH.

____________

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There are two major unknown questions concerning the breakdown in relations between Turkey and Russia following the ambush of a Russian Su-24 bomber in the skies above Syria. The first is what turn of events prompted Turkey’s leadership to adopt a course of confrontation against Russia. The second is why this escalation did not come months sooner, when Hmeimim was far more vulnerable to Turkish attack or blockade.

When Russian aircraft first arrived at Hmeimim, the war was going badly for the Syrian government. The terrorists were able to make major advances during the prior months, and were close to threatening Damascus itself. Syrian forces were demoralized by their setbacks and suffering from shortages of equipment and ammunition.

The Russian air group at that point numbered slightly more than 30 aircraft, the base had no long-range air defenses, and only a small ground contingent to protect it on the ground. The bulk of the materiel for the base and for the rearmament of the Syrian army was only beginning to arrive by Syria Express ships which were busy traversing the Bosphorus in both directions.

The Russian military has not yet demonstrated its combat effectiveness or its long reach – it would do only after the air campaign reached its full tempo and began to be accompanied by cruise missile strikes and heavy bomber sorties. If Erdogan decided to launch a ground operation in Syria in September or October of 2015, when the situation presented far more tempting opportunities, Turkish forces stood a far better chance of influencing the outcome of the war in Syria than they do right now.

Several months later, the situation has changed to such an extent that Turkish intervention has almost no chance of scoring a military success.  Hmeimim now hosts over 50 aircraft, including Su-27SM, Su-30SM, and Su-35S fighters which can provide effective fighter defense against Turkish incursions.

It is also protected by a multi-layered air defense system which includes the S-400 high altitude, long-range missile system, Buk-M2 medium range weapons, and Pantsir-S short-range gun/missile vehicles which are capable of shooting down not only aircraft but also cruise missiles and guided bombs.

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Hostile aircraft would also face a barrage of electronic countermeasures that would significantly degrade their ability to target Hmeimim.  The cruise missile launches by Russian naval ships and heavy bombers have demonstrated the ability to target Turkish air bases and destroy Turkish aircraft on the ground, in the event of escalation of the fighting.

Russian bases in Syria also enjoy the protection from a constant presence of a naval task force, which includes a missile cruiser armed with long-range anti-ship and anti-aircraft weapons, several anti-submarine ships, and at least one missile corvette.

On the ground, the battalion force of Russian troops is hardly the only ground protection of the Hmeimim base.  Russian military assistance, including provision of heavy equipment, munitions, and military planners and advisers, has returned the Syrian Arab Army to an effective fighting condition. In addition, the Syrian army is no longer the only military force defending Syria.

Thanks to Russian diplomatic efforts, several Syrian opposition groups have joined the government forces in their struggle against the extremists. Likewise the Kurdish units which in the past waged their own uncoordinated struggle against ISIS have now been fully incorporated into the Russian-led coalition in return for Syrian government’s political concessions.

A good defense requires not only layering but lots of flexibility

A good defense requires not only layering but lots of flexibility

There is also a sizable Hezbollah and Iranian presence in Syria. Considering that none of these forces are likely to defect to Turkey in the event of Turkish invasion, and that in some cases they view Turkey as their mortal enemy, the Turkish military would likely not advance very far before suffering heavy losses at the hands of Syria’s defenders.

Russian and Syrian long-range weapons now include heavy multiple rocket launchers and Tochka short-range ballistic missiles that would be deadly to Turkish armored columns advancing through narrow mountain paths under the watchful eyes of Russian drones and long-range surveillance aircraft like the Tu-214 and the Il-20.

Even the prospect of the Bosphorus blockade is not as threatening as it once seemed.  Syria Express is now mainly concerned with providing consumables like munitions and spare parts to the forces fighting in Syria. In the event Bosphorus were to be blocked, these supplies could be shipped from the Baltic Sea and, in really urgent cases, by air using the traditional Caspian-Iran-Iraq-Syria air route.

In the longer term, it is essential that Russian and Syrian forces punch a corridor through ISIS territory and link up with Iraqi forces, and there are indications that once extremists around Aleppo are neutralized, the next major offensive will be launched in the direction of Raqqa. Doing so would not only break the back of ISIS, but also enable the opening of another overland supply route through the Caspian Sea and Iran.

The strength of the Russia-led coalition which seems to have taken all outside observers by surprise is such that it is probably sufficient to deter Turkish military air or ground assault against Syria.

While we do not yet know how this happened, it would appear that Moscow was able to outmaneuver Ankara by placing a highly effective military force right under its nose in Syria and reverse the course of the war before Ankara was able to react.

____________

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Posted by on February 20, 2016, With 25421 Reads Filed under WarZone. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

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22 Responses to "Breaking: Turkey Beaten Before It Begins, Russia Outlines the Upcoming War (updated)"

  1. Nine  February 21, 2016 at 10:52 pm

    Hey VT.

    Not that I am in any way qualified to comment upon this article I would simply like to thank you for the direction of this publication.

    South front is awesome journalism. As is most any thing from Duff.

    I would love to hear more from Col Hanke from someone who actually was in the middle east theater in the US Military.

    “What you put out is good propaganda and will effect the politics near range.”

    JH.

    That was one of the most telling comments of truth I have read in the alternative media for a long long time.

    Did not the great William say that all life is but a stage?

    Its theater and who will take the day for the great bow?

    trouble is if you mess up now for many it will be their end and maybe us to…

    What would a guy like sanders do with a mess like this?

    Nine

  2. Charlotte NC Bill  February 21, 2016 at 5:57 pm

    Very interesting. There isn’t much good news out there but this qualifies. Thank God but I wish Russia had stepped-in a couple yrs. sooner. And I wish Ghadafy had given them a naval/air base-they probably would have saved Libya too.

  3. rockwool  February 21, 2016 at 9:05 am

    Where SouthFront comes short is that they don’t have an equivalent to VTs Preston James who includes the Spiritual Dimension into the usual material/ontological and interest/ideological based geopolitical analysis.

    Doing this the two questions of SouthFront are easy:

    2) Erdogan and his click of Kabbalists are well aware of the Cosmic Law that does not allow them to do anything without concent. Therefore the Satanic Alliance must provoke Russia (or any adversary) into starting a conflict.

    1) Erdogan is escalating provocations according to above explanation.

    • Jim W. Dean, Managing Editor  February 21, 2016 at 4:37 pm

      It is not SouthFront’s task to be Preston James, nor Preston James to be Southfront, or anyone else. They are contributors who we have selected because we felt they were making a unique contribution. They are not in competition with each other and we give out no prizes. VT is not a Dancing with the Stars program. The purpose of a good network is to have a lot of specialized people so we call on Col. Hanke for some input like we did here, and Jeff Smith for the piece that he did. Preston has his area, Jonas with his research skills can wander around as he is young and developing. Who knows where he will be five years from now. Come to think of it, neither do we. But then we have the idiots out in Oregon who think they are going to bring the government to its knees with Constitutional challenges that have lost over and over…a form of legal hari kari they are practicing, and of course they are not interesting in hearing that.

  4. NotAVeteran2  February 21, 2016 at 6:09 am

    A rather common thing to say here is (translated badly on purpose):

    If it can’t go the way it should go, then it should go the way that it can.
    And if it goes, then that is the way that must always have been.

    (Als het niet gaat zoals het moet, dan moet het zoals het gaat.
    En als het dan gaat, dan had het zo gemoeten.)

    Which, I guess can be summed up in in four words:
    Just get me results.

  5. ayelyahbenjamin  February 20, 2016 at 8:33 pm

    ..so here we are …. “on the nuke battlefield” one side aggressors, destroyers, thieves mass murderers, plunderers driven by money, power, greed and desperation with thinly covered media Lies that morph with a hidden entity moving under, in, around and through its hosts in representation of it …. the other side defenders protectors of the land and its lifeblood, the people with the forces of Truth moving in, under, around and through all who stand in representation of it, rising and breaking through all barriers …. positioning

  6. roger  February 20, 2016 at 8:31 pm

    Erdogan is receiving orders directly from his military chiefs, and they are receiving orders from NATO. To attack Russia in the Syrian front has been planned as means to reinforce the Syrian expedition and simultaneously weaken the European Russian forces. Its amazing how short sighted are NATO generals thinking that starting a conflict with Russia would only be fought with conventional weapons. Turkish Air Force controls Syrian airspace with AWACS flying over Turkish territory and taking it down would be an excuse needs NATO coming in Turkish help.
    Let´s hope Poland does not makes the same 1939 mistake and serves an excuse to mobilize NATO against the East and thereon, Ukraine is made a NATO member to shorten the distance to Moscow.
    Israel would certainly be the a priority target of Russian nuclear warheads in the very probable war escalation so, its uncomprehensive why, considering Israel commanding or behind NATO decisions, that they do not stop the very probable fact of becoming nuclear ashes ( as well as Turkey) by getting to the verge of a generalized War and the Earth left as a moon landscape.
    No matter Turkish forces size and initial advances on Syria on the end, an irrational decision would have a dearest price.

  7. dirtus napus  February 20, 2016 at 5:05 pm

    At this point Russia’s smaller contingent is almost their ace in the hole. Knowing they couldn’t possibly repel a mass concentration they most surely will have to oblige themselves of a blanket of mini nukes so devastating any NATO general will stand in awe of it’s effectiveness and size. Once these soon to be chicken bones are inside syria between 1 km to 20km. A coordinated strike will destroy everything in that pocket. It will be 3/4’s of a kilometer between each explosion, and dense from North to South. They have no choice, they’ll make it something every person on this planet will never forget, ever. Bear awake…

    But, this is all theatre, so get some sleep people……

  8. Jim W. Dean, Managing Editor  February 20, 2016 at 4:48 pm

    Dear folks, ThisSouthfront and VT piece is about to break 10,000 reads. Why do you think that is when the topic is one we have been dealing with for a good while now? We are always curious when we see a big spike like this, especially when there aren’t several thousand FB likes.

  9. NotAVeteran2  February 20, 2016 at 11:05 am

    Here in the Netherlands there are two kind of people.
    Awake and the Indoctrinated.

    My father is part of the Indoctrinated, I can not get him to see that Government is Evil, Voting does not work, School will kill the soul of your child. The Indoctrinated still eat everything up as it is presented by the media.

    Then we have awake, who know all the above things.
    I have carefully exposed my co-workers with this knowledge.. and they are slowly seeing it my way. At the last False Flag some came to me and asked: “I was really wondering what you were thinking about this.”. Which to me indicates they felt that something stinked, and wanted conformation.
    It also means that “we” (the awake) as a group are growing.

    • Dan Sheppard  February 21, 2016 at 12:29 pm

      Good work! Liberating human beings is a duty

  10. William Bourne  February 20, 2016 at 11:00 am

    I do not fully understand the Kurdish role(s) in Syria and Iraq. They were discovered to be a full participant in oil smuggling with other Zionist nations last month. Kurds are also known to have Jewish roots which usually means a strong bond to other Jews and to Zionist causes.

    Now the Kurds are under siege inside Turkey, and are said to also be enemies of the Saudi coalition fighting Assad. They are reportedly aligned with Syria against ISIS in some reports. So what then are the loyalties of Kurdish people, or do they just play to the highest bidder?

    • NotAVeteran2  February 20, 2016 at 11:18 am

      I guess it’s a matter of Shifting Priorities or Changed Facts o/t Ground.

      As I know it, and I know very little, mind you, you have more than one Kurdish groups.
      You have Turkish Kurds and Syrian Kurds.

      Erdogan hates them both and wants to kill them (doing actively in Turkey, preparing in Syria) but he loves money more, so he’ll use them. The Kurds hate him, but they like being alive better, so you have a choice to be either bombed by O. or you live driving around his oil.

      If you are a small oppressed group, your best survival mechanism is siding with the strongest party on the ground. That seems to be the ‘Changed Fact’. Syria gladly accepts these new recruits, because since Erdogan has killed so many of their kin, they are not very likely to defect at first notice (only when really threatened). And for Syria it’s the choice of losing a bit of land (To give to the Kurds afterwards) or losing it all.

      Hope this helps and that I am not totally wrong.
      Key ingredients: Survival, Bloodline, Independence, No Regime Change.

  11. Amelius  February 20, 2016 at 10:58 am

    I do not believe that the US, Britain and France, failed to understand the wider threat. I believe they are actively trying to drag the planet into WW3. The foreign policy of all these nations is dictated by Turkish mongoloids who call themselves Jews, through their purchased influence (ownership) of government officials by way of lofty campaign contributions.

  12. NotAVeteran2  February 20, 2016 at 10:52 am

    “The Russian airforce in Syria is not very big, they count less than the number of jet fighters on one big US aircraft carrier (around 80 aircrafts i think”

    Which seems to assume that the Russian campaign can still be scaled up immensely.
    Still, I would prefer that Erdogan get a little A.n.d. (Assisted natural death)

  13. davor  February 20, 2016 at 8:13 am

    Britain and Turkey are Scylla and Charybdis of European demographics.

  14. Ramirez  February 20, 2016 at 7:38 am

    His treatment of the Kurds shows he is totally out of control, so it is serious, he is acting like a genocidal maniac.

    You can not support that ! His Generals must surely be desperate to avoid conflict.

  15. Ramirez  February 20, 2016 at 7:35 am

    There is zero support for the rabid Erdogan, he makes John boy McCain look a tactical genius.

  16. Peter Johnson  February 20, 2016 at 5:16 am

    Yes.

    Turkey and Saudi Arabia get to be next.

  17. Peter Johnson  February 20, 2016 at 5:14 am

    “Opening a front somewhere in Turkey” doesn’t have to look like Rommel at El Alemein.

    The end of Turkey has already started — once the big car bombs start going off it’s at most five years before it all turns to shit.

    Turkey has cultivated hatred among the Kurds for centuries by murdering them in large numbers. So the Kurds will be the first group to plant car bombs in the cities. Russia can arm them and deny involvement as it did in Ukraine, or openly support them as a legitimate separatist group the way the US does everywhere.

    But the Kurd will by no means be the only group. There is money to be made from Chaos and once the ball starts rolling it is impossible to stop. There are now thousands upon thousands upon tens of thousands of Takfiri terrorists/mercenaries/freelance security consultants who have spent their formative years picking up a trade that will be much in demand if another large West Asian country starts destroying itself.

  18. volker-dee  February 20, 2016 at 2:19 am

    But to answer the questions directly – in my view it shows that there are different gangs on the western side fighting each other behind the courtains. We dont see any consistent strategy of the western allies. Neither the US nor NATO made steps that could lead to a developement in favour of the western objectives.ISIS/DAESH is on the run in Syria, the oil smuggling and support of DAESH is out in the open, Russias mini military power in Syria today is stronger than the alliance of gulf war 2 of papa Bush (mesured in the number of sorties compared to the availlable equipment) and seems to do exactly whats necessary and most effective..
    Russia and Syria are dictating the development – and they do an excellent job!
    Turkey on the ground with troops in Syria would be desparation. As we see in the excellent article, they dont stand a chance. The only positive outcome could be a media offensive like bashing of the Russian/Syrian forces in killing the poor unarmed humanitarian operation people that tried to help the poor Syrians…

  19. volker-dee  February 20, 2016 at 2:01 am

    Right on spot – they all believed in their own propaganda. All believed that not much had been changed since Jelzin. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Just think who is providing the most reliable hardware for the support of the ISS in orbit or who had the first satellite in space, who had the first man in space (officially), who had the first endurance record for the longest stay in space, who had the first operating space station etc. etc.
    The Russians are crafty folks.
    And despite the western aggressive behaviour, they still are offering their hand. Just compare how Russia is behaving and how the west handles things.
    The Russians even managed to create kind of a cooperation of several rebel groups and the Syrian gouvernment forces. This creates first bits of trust. That is the first step for a positive political process in Syrias post war civil reorganization. They somehow have to rebuild Syria again – and I bet that Russia and the silk road initiative will have a good part in helping Syria and her people.

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