[Editor’s note: It is a rule of thumb in politics that when the polls don’t agree it means that the outcome is likely to be pretty close; add to that the fact that some of the polls are showing a very small and decreasing gap then I think it is a fairly safe assumption that this election is likely to be a pretty close one and it is unlikely we will see a Conservative majority.
This means a hung parliament where no-one has a majority which brings up the possibility of a coalition government being formed. The two groups that are likely to possess a significant but small number of seats are the Ulster Unionists and the Scottish National Party, two groups that are bitterly opposed to Brexit and no fans of Theresa May or her Conservative party.
Should this situation arise, it would seem far more likely that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party would be the ones able to form a coalition; Corbyn, himself opposed to Brexit, would simply have to offer to hold a second Brexit referendum and the SNP and perhaps the Ulster Unionists too, would likely take that deal and enter into a Corbyn-lead coalition. It may take the offer of a second referendum on Scottish independence to persuade the SNP, another intriguing factor in this most unusual and unpredictable of election campaigns.
Then things would get really interesting as Corbyn is very much the worst nightmare for the British Establishment and would be the first true socialist leader we have had in a very long time, almost 40 years in fact. Ian]
UK June 8 election opinion polls marred in controversy
Prime Minister Theresa May could lose control of parliament in Britain’s June 8 election, according to a projection by polling company YouGov, raising the prospect of political turmoil just as formal Brexit talks begin.
The YouGov model suggested May would lose 20 seats and her 17-seat working majority in the 650-seat British parliament, though other models show May winning a big majority of as much as 142 seats and a Kantar poll showed her lead widening.
If the YouGov model turns out to be accurate, May would be well short of the 326 seats needed to form a government tasked with the complicated talks, due to start shortly after the election, on Britain’s divorce from the European Union.
A later poll, a separate regular survey carried out by YouGov for Thursday’s Times newspaper, showed May’s Conservative Party just three percentage points ahead of the Labour opposition, which has been eating into her lead since the start of the campaign.
The Conservatives were on 42%, down a point from last week, with Labour up three points, the YouGov survey said.
A total of eight polls carried out since the May 22 Manchester suicide attack have shown May’s lead over the Labour Party narrowing, with some suggesting she might not win the landslide predicted just a month ago.
When asked by a reporter if she would resign if she lost seats, May dodged the question on Wednesday, saying that the only poll that mattered was the election on June 8. Recent opinion polls have shown May’s lead has contracted to a range of 5 to 14 percentage points. YouGov’s election model was based on voting intention figures which gave May a lead of just 3 percentage points, YouGov said.
YouGov, using a technique called “Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification”, uses a range of factors including demographics, past elections and voter profiles to build a model which can come up with an estimate of how the vote will be split in individual constituencies.
Michael Ashcroft, a former Conservative Party donor who funds polling, uses the same types of modeling as YouGov but came up with a very different estimate of the election: May winning 396 seats and Corbyn winning 180 seats.
Other projections suggested May would win soundly. The Electoral Calculus website, which predicts the results based on polls and electoral geography, said May would win 371 seats and Labour 205 seats. Betting markets give a more than 80% probability of May winning an overall majority, though they were wrong ahead of the unexpected Brexit result in the June 23 referendum last year.
YouGov acknowledged that its predictions were controversial and allowed for a wide margin of error, adding that the samples in each constituency were small.
Jim Messina, a polling and data adviser for the Conservative Party who worked on Barack Obama’s campaign, said the YouGov numbers were stupid and that he had spent the day laughing at them. YouGov allowed for big variations in the outcome of the election, ranging from as high as 345 seats for the Conservatives, 15 more than their current number, to as low as 274, the pollster’s chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare, said.
Sterling drops on fears Tories could fail to win an outright majority
The value of the pound dropped after a projection suggested the Conservatives could fail to win an outright majority in the election on 8 June. Previous opinion polls suggested Prime Minister Theresa May’s party would increase its majority, which is currently 17 seats.
But the projection, published in The Times and based on YouGov research, suggests a possible hung parliament.
Sterling fell by more than half of one per cent, but recovered some losses. By early Wednesday morning, it was trading 0.44% lower against the dollar at $1.28020 and 0.29% lower against the euro at 1.14600 Euros.
The Times said the YouGov data suggested that the Tories could lose up to 20 of the 330 seats they held in the last parliament, with Labour gaining nearly 30 seats he Conservatives would still be the biggest party, but would not have an overall majority.
The model is based on 50,000 interviews over a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov. It uses a new “constituency-by-constituency” model for polling, which the paper says allows for big variations.
According to The Times, “the estimates were met with skepticism by Tory and Labour figures.”
YouGov’s chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare said the model had been tested during the EU referendum campaign, when it consistently put the winning Leave side ahead. But he added: “It would take only a slight fall in Labor’s share and a slight increase in the Conservatives’ to result in Mrs. May returning to No 10 with a healthy majority.”
Posted by Ian Greenhalgh on June 1, 2017, With 1255 Reads Filed under Government & Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.