An Independent Kurdistan May Soon Arise

[Editor’s note: We have been watching events in the Kurdish region closely for some time as we have been suspecting that there will be an attempt to declare independence. The Kurdish leadership has been very concerned for years about the loss of their best young people to the diaspora – millions of Kurds live abroad and more continue to leave, which gives rise to serious concerns that Kurdish tradition and identity will be lost. Therefore the Kurds want desperately to declare their own independent state so they can begin to build a stable, peaceful and prosperous nation and persuade all those bright young Kurds who have gone overseas to return and help build the new Kurdistan.

This new Kurdish state would encompass northern Iraq and a small part of northeast Syria, there would be no attempt to claim territory from Turkey or Iran as the Kurdish leadership want peace and stability, not further conflict with their neighbours.

The US armed the Kurds recently, a clear first step on the road to statehood, as Claude Rains says in the clip from Lawrence of Arabia below, in reference to the Arabs ‘give them artillery and you give them independence’, the same very much applies today and the US have supplied the artillery.

Last week President Putin, seemed resigned to the breakup of Syria, as when asked about it, he said he could not stop it. Now we know that the Russians signed a deal with the Kurds on the 2nd June, it throws new light on Putin’s comment.

This deal with the Russians makes it clear that Russia would support an independent Kurdistan, just as the arms deal made it clear the US would; therefore we are certain the Kurds will decalre independence in the near future. Ian]

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Al-Monitor
Iraqi Kurdistan-Russia oil deal could have major implications for region

The Kurdistan Regional Government quietly signed a major deal June 2 with Russian oil giant Rosneft, allowing Russia its first entry to the Kurdish oil market, which was dominated by the United States and Turkey.

Iraq’s central government for years has opposed the sale of Iraqi oil by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq. The KRG’s biggest oil sale was with Turkey in 2014, and at one time the dispute reached a crisis level with parties accusing each other of “misreading the [Iraqi] Constitution.” However, as the oil argument was growing, the Islamic State (IS) invaded Mosul in northern Iraq. When IS began to threaten the nearby Kurdish region, oil squabbles were put on the back burner. Still, the KRG quietly continued its oil trade.

The KRG had serious problems coping simultaneously with the war with IS and its economic crisis. Now, with the IS threat diminishing, the oil trade is back on the agenda as the KRG energetically pursues more oil deals. The first major recent agreement was just made with geographically distant but politically near Russia.

The KRG’s presence at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, held June 1-3, was seen as routine. But news of an oil accord focused attention on the Kurds. KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani signed a 20-year-long oil deal with Russia’s Rosneft. According to the June 2 agreement, Russia will buy Kurdish oil and refine it in Germany. As a first step, Russia will invest $3 billion in KRG territory.

The deal continues and reinforces one signed in February on the purchase and sale of crude for 2017-19, according to Kurdish news website Rudaw. The deal gives Rosneft access to regional transport with a throughput capacity of 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), which will be expanded to as much as 1 million bpd by the end of this year, Rosneft said in a statement.

Now Russia — along with the United States and Turkey — is also a key player in the Kurdish oil market. But does this new client signify more than just money for the region?

According to Jabbar Kadir, who had served as an adviser to former KRG Prime Minister Barham Salih, the Russians see the Kurds as key players in the future of the region.

“Russia believes Iraq will be divided, if not into three states, [then] at least into three federal regions. That is why [Russia] has slowed down working with the central government. If Baghdad opposes the deal, the KRG and Russians will tell them, ‘You are making deals with Americans. They explore oil in the Kurdish region. We will do the same,’” Kadir told Al-Monitor.

“You cannot ignore the political ramifications of all this. Until now, Turkey used to manage the oil affairs of Kurdistan and impose its own conditions. It won’t be able to do this with Rosneft. That is why this is a landmark deal for the future of Kurdistan. But there has to be transparency. People should be told what the deal is, how much the Russians will earn and how much the Kurds [will get],” he added.

And how will the United States and Turkey react to their shares of the pie getting smaller? Kadir believes the United States won’t be all that happy with the deal. The Kurds must have consulted Ankara and Washington in advance so as not to upset the Americans too much, as they know the United States has strategic ties with Iraq.

Aydin Selcen, a former diplomat and Turkey’s first consul general to Erbil, thinks Rosneft’s purchase of KRG crude oil is a significant move. He told Al-Monitor that the key aspect of the deal will be Rosneft’s use of the KRG pipeline and eventually increasing its capacity. Selcan doesn’t think the deal will lead to major tensions among Ankara, Baghdad and Erbil, though some repercussions are likely.

“We don’t know if Ankara had advance notice of the deal, but given Nechirvan Barzani’s frequent visits to Turkey and his friendly relations with [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, this was likely. Now a heavy player like Rosneft is going to buy Kurdish oil and refine it in its Germany facilities. There have to be political consequences. It is likely that some in Ankara are already thinking about how it will all affect Turkey,” Selcen added.

The KRG doesn’t care who its customers are; it doesn’t want to be limited to a single buyer. The more diversified the customers, the better for the Kurdish economy. There is no doubt that the Russian oil deal strengthens the hands of the Kurdish administration. If the controversial Kurdish independence referendum scheduled for September ends with a “yes” vote, the oil deal could play a major role toward independence. The pact with Russia could actually encourage the Kurds to put aside their controversial goal of reaching the Mediterranean to market their natural resources, as the deal means their oil and natural gas will reach the sea regardless.

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8 Responses to "An Independent Kurdistan May Soon Arise"

  1. roger  June 16, 2017 at 12:32 pm

    Kurds have blood links with Jewish people as Barzani relation do with Netanyahu. Any Kurd enclave would be an Israel enclave and by consequence of close relationship with Israel Turkey may end up leaving the IDF overfly its territory to be based in Kurdistan and become dangerous close to Iran.

  2. JS  June 15, 2017 at 4:14 pm

    Iraqi Kurds have recently announced their intention to hold an independence referendum on Sept 25. There is already a wikipedia page about it.

  3. Peter Johnson  June 15, 2017 at 6:21 am

    At the end of the day, the Kurds will still be land-locked and dependent on Turkey to help them. Will they not?

  4. Cold Wind  June 15, 2017 at 3:54 am

    With all its apparent Byzantine complexity, the deal between Putin, the US and the Kurds signals the end of Syria and Iraq, Neither state, in its diminished form, will recover from this betrayal. It is interesting that there is not one mention of a possible Syrian response to the Russian betrayal. It is assumed Assad (at least) has no choice but to acquiesce. To be sure though, sovereignty and nationalism have been sacrificed on the alter of NWO expediency. In the long run, Russia itself will pay a high price for this bit of political ‘realism’ or should we say nihilism?. The immediate main beneficiary of Putin’s deal will be Israel, who will no doubt quickly ensconce itself within the new Kurdish state–ultimately controlling everything that matters. Assad, in his astonishment, must be echoing the words of Caesar: Et tu Putin?

  5. Chris Paul  June 14, 2017 at 5:13 pm

    “I’m not your friend.I’mThe President of Russia”.Kim Roosevelt proposed a scheme to divide the region into Kurdish,Shia and Sunni areas many decades ago.These lads plan way ahead.The CIA/MI6 “Cousins” system was getting fed by “Five Eyes” and leaking out the Electronic Back Door(Better than Sixth Sense,eh?) with “Five Spies”.We can all guess about “The Fifth Man”.It is obvious,apart from the fact that the name is oft mentioned in “KGB” by Andrew and Gordievsky.I would imagine that Putin would be in the know, for sure.These things are decided at Great Power Level and Vlad has made sure Russia has got its share of the carve up,”not quite in at the finish”,taken over from the Yanks,but like in Harness Racing, “One Out and One Back”, second prize so to speak.The greedy Yanks did not get it all their way.The question is whether “The Fifth Man”,or his succesor,still has control over the Russian End of The Hegelian Dialectic,which end has been massively strengthened by Israeli Technology Transfer,thank you USA Taxpayer, the sort Power Balancing Transfers that we have witnessed in Past History.It is all very logical.”There is no basis for Morality in Rational Thought “.Post ‘Enlightenment’ Thought is really just Dog Eat Dog Parasitism on Society, regurgitated Primordial Reptilian Reality.Not appropriate for an ordered new world. Tell Big Boy Netanyahu.Thatcher said there is no Society.Bush and Blair,no International Law.

  6. joetv  June 14, 2017 at 5:05 pm

    Ian take off the rose colored glasses. There is no way the US arms the Kurds aithout conditions like more THADD pointed at Russia. The PKK, YPG agree to bypass Turkey. Well maybe for now. It all stinks, I am sure Russia is aware of the danger, and is playing a short game
    The Kurds involved are bought, and paid for terrorists.

    • Eduardo  June 14, 2017 at 9:32 pm

      Exactly joetv! Any deals made with the US will bite you sooner then later – as a tribe or as a nation.
      The American arms supply to Kurdish combatants is a sling around the Kurdish neck which will tighten very quickly.

  7. davor  June 14, 2017 at 3:54 pm

    If some ethnic group collects enough money and brings it over to the Greenwich boys, they will “provide” it with statehood, meaning push their UN agenda to recognize it. The coordinates are not even important. We have three continents with circa 50 countries per continent, 1 continent with a dozen countries and 2 continents with one and few countries, it is very easy to figure it out. The continents with the smallest number of countries remain untouchable while the rest are always up for “regime changes”.

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