Retracted: Confidential document on Ukraine by Rand Corporation leaked

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Map showing overall situation and location of Yasynuvata

Well, I have to hold my hands up and admit I made a boo-boo here. By not doing proper journalistic due diligence and checking the authenticity of this document, I screwed up. Thanks to the keen eye of VT reader Paul Giacomantonio we have been able to correct this oversight. Paul did what I should have done and contacted the folks at Rand to ask if they had actually produced this document. Jeffrey Hiday from Rand contacted me and pointed out that the authenticity of this document had been debunked two years ago when it first surfaced:

Dear Ian,

Your article references a clearly fake study. We have produced no such report. This first came up two years ago (see below). I might have explained the fakery to you as well — if you’d asked.

Jeffrey Hiday
Director, Office of Media Relations
RAND Corporation

Jeffrey provided the following references from TASS:

 July 5, 2014

http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1299753  

(Rough translation)

In the United States said they were not prepared Kiev action scenario in case of failure of the peace plan International panorama

Earlier, media reported that the US-based RAND was a plan providing for “the rapid suppression of” militias

LOS ANGELES, July 5. / Corr. ITAR-TASS Alexander Urusov /. Based in Santa Monica (California) research organization RAND (an abbreviation of Research and Development) has denied any involvement in the spread of a number of Western media scenario in Kiev action in the event of the failure of the peace plan prepared by the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko.

“The RAND does not prepare this document,” – he said on Friday, responding to a written request corr. ITAR-TASS, the head of the press-service organization Geoffrey Haydey.

Last Friday, the nonprofit Center for Globalization Studies (The Centre for Research on Globalization – CRG), edition Before It’s News, and other media have attributed the authorship RAND “Memorandum on the recommended course of action in case of failure of the peace plan” Poroshenko. According to the CRG, the scenario involves three stages – in effect “a rapid suppression of” militias “in spite of public opinion, and costs.”

RAND Center was founded in 1948 in Santa Monica (California). In 1950 the corporation started to work with the orders of US government agencies to study the national security issues. The objectives of the organization identified as the promotion and encouragement of scientific, educational and charitable activities in the interests of public welfare and the United States national security.
Plan b”

“We are considering various scenarios: a peaceful scenario or plan” A “, but for those who are looking to use the ceasefire to buy time and regroup, and they should know, we have a plan” B “. I will not be go into the details of the plan, because I believe that our peace plan will work “, – said the president, without specifying details.

As reported July 1 journalists MP, representative of the president of Ukraine to resolve the situation in the eastern regions of the country, Irina Gerashchenko, Poroshenko went to the so-called plan “B” in the east. “Peace plan, which relied President of Ukraine and that Ukraine adhered to at all times, we have seen shameful attitude on the part of separatists. Now the president moved on to plan” B “, which is supported by both military and civilian populations. The main task, which is now as president, it is that our military will be bet on the neutralization of terrorists, separatists and militants military operations will be carried out so as to preserve the lives of civilians, “-. said Gerashchenko.

Other details of the plan “B” is not given.
“No unilateral ceasefire”

Poroshenko on Friday ruled out the possibility of ending the military operation in Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

“No unilateral ceasefire will no longer be”, – said the President during his meeting with the leaders of the factions of the Verkhovna Rada.

At the same time, in the Security Council of Ukraine did not rule out that in the east of the country may impose martial law. The corresponding document has already been prepared, according to the National Security and Defense Council Secretary Andriy Paruby.

Let me thank Paul for his diligence in spotting my error and Jeffrey for kindly answering the question I should have asked. I wish to sincerely apologise for my oversight in this instance.

Once he’d finished waterboarding me severely for my error, Gordon reminded me that VT doesn’t include Rand alongside the likes of the American Enterprise Institute or the Jamestown or Heritage Foundations; those are the bad guys, the ‘enemy’ in the war on truth.

So, one overriding question remains in this issue – who faked this ‘Rand’ document and why did they do so?

Map showing overall situation and location of Yasynuvata

The Rand Corporation are well known as one of the most nefarious of think tanks. They have a long track record of half-truths and outright fabrications; however, as always with such material, it is blended with solid truths in order to pass the palette of the less discerning or less well informed consumer. This document, produced by Rand, on the face of it, is something of ‘smoking gun’ that exposes the Western pre-planning of the Donbass debacle. The document makes chilling reading for the ruthlessness and inhumanity of it’s proposals; words like genocide and ethnic cleanisng are thrown around too frequently in the modern world but in this case, would be appropriate.

__________
Ukraine Human Rights Committee
Confidential document on Ukraine by Rand Corporation leaked

A strategic document by the US military think tank RAND Corporation on the plan in eastern Ukraine was leaked. The Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko follows the action plan proposed by RAND analysts. The document provides three stages of a military operation in eastern Ukraine.

During the first stage of the military operation in Ukraine martial law should be introduced, considering that all local citizens are terrorists or sympathizers. Regions supporting militias must be completely isolated. All types of communications should be blocked, curfews should be established.

The second stage of the plan involves the seizure of territories. The cities should be entered with armed vehicles, which open fire on all armed people. All the men sent to filtration camps. People featuring traces of combat engagement shall be tried in court for terrorism.

The third phase of the plan involves the restoration of the regions. The borders shall be strengthened to avoid possible provocations. All the refugees should be checked for possible support for separatists in internment camps.

The document stresses that the area of operation should not be representatives of the foreign media. Should also be carried out mass propaganda campaign.


Full text of the document:

Confidential document prepared by the RAND corporation:

MEMORANDUM
On the advisable course of action in case the peace plan fails

In case further negotiation with southeast Ukrainian Insurgents should prove futile, the only practicable solution should be a swift crackdown on the separatists and terrorists, to be undertaken irrespective of public opinion or operation costs. Procrastination would dramatically reduce the operation’s chances of success.

Possible political and material downsides of an operation should be greatly outweighed by the following probable gains:

  • Activists of a pro-Russian political movement get decimated, pro-Russian voters get disorganized.
  • A significant share of the region’s coal industries get destroyed in the fighting, or are otherwise designated for a quick shutdown, thus relieving Ukraine’s budget of the burdensome subsidy costs.
  • Shutting down Donbas Industries will mean a stark reduction in gas consumption, and therefore a lesser dependency on Russian energy imports.
  • Rinat Akhmetov and his clan’s political and economic clout is considerably weakened.
  • Ukraine’s current economic and social difficulties can be explained to the public as the unwanted yet unavoidable consequences of the military operation, which the Ukrainian government has been keen yet unable to avoid due to the terrorists’ Intransigence.

The Presumable Stages of a Military Operation

Stage One: Total isolation of the rebel region

Considering that any resident of the Donetsk Region and the Lugansk Region has had enough time and opportunities to leave the area of hostilities provided that they wanted to do so, anyone who has stayed behind should be regarded as complicit in the unrest, or supportive of it.

Martial law shall be introduced in the defiant regions. All local authorities shall have their competencies terminated, the Constitution shall be suspended. Direct presidential rule shall be imposed.

The region shall be encircled with troops and sealed off entirely from any flow of goods and persons, both incoming and outgoing. Special attention shall be given to areas that border on Russia. Broadcasting services, Internet connection, telephone and mobile communications in the region shall be shut down. A curfew shall be imposed between 20:00 and 06:00. International media staff working in the region shall be subject to a special procedure.

Stage two: Mop-up

The circle of troops around the rebel region shall be tightened gradually. Ground assaults shall be preceded by air strikes against the enemy’s strategic facilities, artillery and mortar teams, and bunched-up troops. The use of non-conventional arms shall not be ruled out in certain cases in order to ensure smaller casualties among our own personnel.

Settlements shall be liberated one by one, with armor going in first and wiping out the remaining pockets of resistance, shooting to kill anyone who bears arms. Infantry shall move in next to relocate male adults into internment camps. Anyone who attempts to resist shall be executed on the spot. Children aged under 13 and people older than 60 shall be moved to specially equipped facilities in areas that are further away from the zone of the anti-terrorist operation.

Internment camps shall set up outside the settlements that have been cleared, and guarded by units who are considered to be ideologically safe. People featuring traces of combat engagement, like bruises, scuff marks, gunshot and fragment wounds, traces of gunpowder and gun oil on the skin and clothes, shall be tried in court for separatism and terrorism. After a two-month period of internment, the remaining individuals shall be allowed to return to places of their residence and be placed under surveillance by security services.

Stage 3: Back to Normal

Military specialists shall be employed to restore water, heat, power supplies and communications.

The borders shall be strengthened, with checkpoints set up to avoid possible provocations by Russia and to prepare for a massive return of refugees. Those who fled the war zone shall be allowed to return to their place of residence. However, men aged 18-60 shall be checked for possible support for separatists in internment camps. The property of convicted and displaced residents of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions shall be nationalized by the state and later awarded to the servicemen who would be distinguished for valor during the anti-terrorist campaign.

Special focus shall be made on information security, which means that the area of the anti-terrorist campaign shall be made off limits to foreign media. Stories of heroism and courage of Ukraine’s armed forces, the National Guard and other armed units in saving civilians in the east of Ukraine from terrorists and armed gangs shall be spread as broadly as possible.

Note: If the active stage of the anti-terrorist operation ends no later than September 1, 2014, martial law shall be lifted no earlier than January 1, 2015.

Author Details
Ian Greenhalgh is a photographer and historian with a particular interest in military history and the real causes of conflicts.

His studies in history and background in the media industry have given him a keen insight into the use of mass media as a creator of conflict in the modern world.

His favored areas of study include state-sponsored terrorism, media manufactured reality and the role of intelligence services in manipulation of populations and the perception of events.
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