On the topic of what is happening with Kazakhstan. Currently, Kazakhstan is a fairly typical for the Middle East and Central Asia vysokopersonifitsirovannuyu autocracy with peripheral capitalism version. Wind “Arab Spring” and a series of color revolutions of the first wave, which quite a few state Porush creating in their place a bloody chaos, the whole bypassed by his side.
Without much effort, you can see how do the authorities of Kazakhstan and Russia are interested in maintaining the status quo, stretching it until departure or death Nazarbayev, for which we have looked at the gaping void. These attempts to postpone the decision for later accumulated problems in recent years have increasingly hampered by various negative processes as the internal genesis, and inspired from outside.
1. Islamism . Like all the republics of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is influenced by radical Islam, which has recently been stronger than all tied to the subject of the Caliphate. Hundreds of citizens went to fight in Syria and Iraq in the ranks of the Caliphate, some have already returned or will return to have in place work within the stage of pre-territorial control – to conduct agitation and propaganda, to create cells and to look for ways to withdraw from the under-management of the attacked country of the its territory, to create his Wilayat.
It is worth recalling that the Caliphate in its propaganda claims as the Russian Caucasus, and on a large part of Central Asia, including Kazakhstan. Of course, at this stage it is more a problem for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but a feature of the Caliphate of the strategy is that sometimes there is a direct border between Vilayat “black” and the attacked state is not required, since much of this infrastructure is created at the expense of local resources.
to this is added the activities of groups and individuals associated with the structures of “Al-Qaeda”, the various Islamist groups with a national or ethnic bias, as well as the legal of the pan, a small layer of which was formed in Kazakhstan with possible assistance of Turkey, which is still in doerdogansky period tried to promote the concept of pan-Turkic world.
For non-uniform in the ethnic and religious diversity of the country, a conglomerate of moderate and radical Islamists is answered by a serious threat, especially in the case of increase chaos in Kazakhstan, since the negative scenarios related to the dismantling of the Nazarbayev regime, Islamists may try to repeat what they have already turned in Libya , Egypt, Afghanistan – that is, to create its own quasi-state structure or lead to banal civil war, as it did for example in Tajikistan in the early 90s. It is a distant threat, but its risk is far from zero, since for this threat are people with experience, who were doing similar in different countries. The army and police there can not be a panacea – just look at what is happening in Sinai.
2. The struggle for “democracy.” The responsibility for the attack on Aktobe has assumed a certain “Liberation Army of Kazakhstan”, which is fighting “for democracy against Nazarbayev clique” and fighting in Aktobe were “the first battles for democracy”, that is a bit like the first clashes in Benghazi and Homs, which led to the well-known results in Libya and Syria.
Since the legal and complete the political opposition in Kazakhstan is almost absent, if you want to shake the country from the outside, especially new techniques to come up with is not necessary – if there is a problem of a shake and see what comes of it, the technologies of color revolutions a second wave of fit, especially since the shedding of blood there is not a boundary scenario, in contrast to the color revolutions of version 1.0, which proponents have tried to make it bloodless.
Now to such trifles no longer exchanged. The question here is whether the external support of such activities within the country – without serious media and diplomatic support, and without the possibility of throwing weapons into the country at the beginning of the clashes, the like of significant prospects in the fight against the suppression of a well-functioning machine does not have. If the external action can paralyze the power of the machine, and oppose the regime with arms receiving weapons from outside, then a transition to the scenarios involving either a complete seizure of power, or civil war.
In the context of coming conflict between the US and Russia, the United States is unlikely to resist the desire to at least test the Kazakhstan, to evaluate in practice the level of Russian influence in the country and try to create for Russia an additional problem that can logically complement the US activity in the buildup of the situation in the Urals. The US has already probed Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh problem, pumped Belarusian issue, so that Kazakhstan there was never an exception. Experience with countries the United States is – is enough to recall the color revolution in Kyrgyzstan, where President Askar Akayev was overthrown and the country there was an American base.
In the context of the struggle against Russia, this scenario would obviously be interesting for the United States and Kazakhstan, and presumably, some movements in this direction, we will see even more success in this matter can finally bury Russia’s integration projects in the former Soviet Union.
3 . Russian problem. “ It is also worth noting the issue related to the Russian minority in Kazakhstan. Despite the fact that national policies in Kazakhstan soft enough, from the state implemented serious enough Russian migration in Russia http://camonitor.kz/13287-pochemu-russki e-uezzhayut-iz-kazahstana.html both objective and subjective reasons. in spite of some attempts to ignite the system Russophobia in Kazakhstan at the moment it did not come, and a threat to the Russian-speaking population in Kazakhstan is more long-term nature, which by the way is realized as one of the reasons for departure to Russia is often associated with possible complications in this matter after leaving Nazarbayev.
Taking into account the heterogeneity of Kazakhstan, the current authorities realize that the attempt to force to build a nation-state or make it ethnically more homogeneous lead to what has already happened Ukraine, therefore the conditional “kazahstanizatsiya” is quite sluggish, as the authorities are now primarily interested in maintaining the status quo, rather than sharp changes. But in the hypothetical changers Nazarbayev on this score may be different opinions. It postponed the problem, since the script “to blame Nazarbayev and Russian”, not incredible, because in Ukraine, we are well observed, both under the guise of “fighting the regime of Yanukovych” was unfolding system Russophobic campaign.
4. Economy. All the above problems are potentially dangerous, but not critical if the economy on its feet, and with that in recent times there are problems. A significant part of the economy of the country belongs to the Chinese and Russian capital (which is why both Russia and China are interested in the fact that in Kazakhstan remain as they are), and the economic system itself is heavily dependent on energy exports and other resources.
The collapse in oil and metals prices hit quite painful for the economy of Kazakhstan http://ru.reuters.com/article/businessNe ws / idRUKCN0YF1W4 and new conditions to pay for the maintenance of the status quo in the economy has become much more difficult as the thing that unites Kazakhstan and Venezuela, although problems Nazarbayev is not so pronounced as in Maduro, and his political situation is more stable than that of Chavistas.
Here lies the main threat and, as the growth of poverty, increasing capitalist exploitation, the erosion of the middle class, etc. It leads to the appearance of active protest groups, some of which will find a way out of radical Islam (some with a focus on the Caliphate), the other in the struggle for workers’ rights and against local and foreign mining companies ruthlessly exploiting the local cheap labor and natural resources of the country, and others in “struggle for democracy” with a focus on foreign countries.
So we see in Kazakhstan and protests by workers, and increasing the factor of radical Islam, and the emergence of the “Liberation Army of Kazakhstan for all the good against the bad things.” In this case, due to lack of complete opposition protests will slip stage of political bargaining and quickly radicalized, so to the casual observer it looks strange when formally calm and stable country there are events like the shooting in Zhanaozen and the current attack on Aktobe.
It’s more of the symptoms that are generated are not very rosy economic situation. That is, there is an accumulation of various negative factors, each of which is unlikely in itself is capable of shaking the Nazarbayev regime, but together they can create an explosive mixture, which is a jerk herself or her carefully set fire to the outside. The second is currently more likely than the first. Russia as usual in its policy in the CIS countries has been trying to keep things as they are. Somewhere it turns out – in Transnistria, Belarus, or in case of a conflict of Armenia and Azerbaijan, somewhere, in the case of Ukraine, not at all. In the context of reaching the Cold War with the United States and the changing world order in our eyes, to maintain the status quo is becoming increasingly difficult.
The world is changing – with it changes both Russia and its environment. where until recently seen stability, now you can see the boiling cauldrons of civil wars or potential threats to future problems hardball. Weak work for the future leads to the fact that the rate only on the current elite is not giving the results that are expected in the long term – in the event of unforeseen changes, these elites to Russia a void. Ukraine is clearly shown. Similar threats exist in Belarus, and Kazakhstan, where it is unclear what will happen to those countries, when Lukashenka and Nazarbayev will depart from affairs.
And it’s not only that these states under the influence of the internal contradictions of change for Russia in the wrong direction, there are also external factors that these changes be referred to the not desired us away, and the local elite, which as usual emphasis is, can be either paralyzed or partially perebegut under foreign protection. The ground for such changes gradually preparing, often by the same authorities of the former Soviet republics that do not solve some of the problems, trying to sit on the lid tightly closed pans THE HEATING.
When the pressure in a pan begins to rise, we are beginning to see signs of increasing boiling point, especially if someone wants to dramatically increase the temperature showering pan gas burner from the outside.As a result, Kazakhstan is in the medium term, facing serious challenges that threaten including its existence in current borders. In addition to accumulating internal contradictions, there are external threats associated with trying to turn it into a food base for the next Wilayat or in another front the US and the Russian war, which aims to reproduce Russophobia, migrants, crime, drug trafficking, and pour it all in Russia, expanding “cordon sanitaire” around Russia. In these circumstances, to maintain “stability” will become increasingly difficult, and we are in the short and medium term will see a new performances and new attacks. In the case of an early departure or banal Nazarbayev’s death, this is only exacerbated.
What are the outputs of Kazakhstan? What will all this pressure it by force, it is clear. But it is a struggle with the symptoms without addressing the causes of economic growth and various protest extremism, it is hardly possible to talk about solving the problems in the long run.
Here the question is more complex than simply disperse disgruntled clubs – is needed to fight poverty and unemployment, rising living standards, better pay and working conditions, the development of social infrastructure, cleaning practically does not work “social mobility”, the tightening of the fight against corruption and systemic crime spliced with power.
Success in these areas could seriously reduce the nutrient base for various grievances. Ignoring these problems will eventually lead to a social explosion that is likely to be used is not in the interests of the population of Kazakhstan and the benefit here is not fighting for their rights workers, not union leaders, and Russian living in Kazakhstan, but rather any clones of those who came to power in Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and Ukraine, if not gloomy bearded with the Koran and the Kalashnikov in an embrace.