They say that the pen is mightier than the sword, but sadly it rather looks as though Marine Le Pen will be put to the sword when France votes in the second round of the presidential election on May 7th. A French presidential election is not at all like an American one. The losing candidate doesn’t start to throw champagne bottles at TV sets within a few hours of the polls closing. The process takes a few weeks.
Of course Marine Le Pen is a rather classier lady than Hillary Clinton, no offense intended. It’s unlikely, if she loses, that she will be throwing anything at a TV set, let alone champagne. They don’t throw champagne away in France, well not good champagne anyway.
The odds are stacked against Marine. Her support base is fairly narrow and the entire French media and pro-EU political establishment is arrayed against her. Socialist, communist and soft right votes will tend to go to the EU-loving centrist candidate, Macron. If you’ve never heard of him, don’t worry. There’s no reason why you should have. He’s a colorless nonentity, no offense intended, chosen precisely because nobody knew he was and he hadn’t managed to offend anybody in his brief and undistinguished political career.
I know he was French finance minister, but how many people could name the current French finance minister? I’d have to Google it. France is in the euro, so all key economic decisions are taken in Frankfurt anyway.
The Fifth Republic
The key to understanding the Fifth Republic is that it is essentially a Vichyist construct. Please don’t remind me that De Gaulle was Free French. He was, but he was also blackmailed by the Abwehr and in turn the DVD over his sexuality (he was gay). After the Allies liberated Paris in 1944, only the German military withdrew. The Abwehr stayed behind.
Our community partner Jerry was keen to regain control of Paris. Since the German army had been comprehensively beaten, the only way to do that was by bribery, blackmail, terrorism and assassination, i.e. the usual Hun methods. Jerry sponsored a violent campaign of terrorism in Algeria and cut a deal with De Gaulle. In return for being installed in power he would support French membership of the EEC and govern France, in effect as a German puppet.
Unfortunately for Jerry we found out about De Gaulle’s homosexuality and dealings with the Abwehr – we had never entirely entrusted ‘mon general’. We were able to leverage this intelligence into two very handy vetoes of the applications to join the EEC made by two German assets, Harold Macmillan and Harold Wilson, in each case supported by the Cabinet Office, then under firm German control.
Once De Gaulle was no longer of any use to the Jerries they dumped him, in 1968, organising a few riots in Paris. Jerry knows how to organise a riot. De Gaulle’s successor, Pompidou, was a former Vichyist and a German asset, who of course tried to pretend that he had been Free French during the war.
The electoral system of the Fifth Republic is designed to favour centrists. The Jerries love centrists – they tend to be unprincipled, they’re cheap and they can pull in votes from the soft right and the soft left. Remember it was the Zentrum (Center Party) which delivered key votes in the Reichstag for our community partners the Nazis.
The DVD has a black operation in Paris, just at it has in London. The Jerries never voluntarily shut down their intelligence network in any country they occupy. This black agency co-ordinates terror attacks and assassination attempts on patriotic French politicians.
The Jerries are afraid of Marine Le Pen and have good reason to be. The sad reality is that the Hun knocked the stuffing out of the French at Verdun, ably assisted by their man General Pétain, who agreed to sacrifice French troops by the hundreds of thousands. The seeds of the French collapse in 1940 were sown 23 years before. Unlike the French political and bureaucratic establishment, however, Marine Le Pen has spirit.
Sadly, despite the discreet support of President Trump, my prediction is that Macron will win. He simply has too much support. The polls are saying that it’s a done deal, 60:40. It may be a bit tighter than that – no polling organisation in the Western world is capable of objectively assessing support for conservative causes or candidates, but the errors are usually of the order of 4-5%.
I can see at least half of Fillon’s voters backing Marine. Conventional wisdom says only a third, but that may ignore the effect of the recent wave of German-backed Islamist terrorist attacks in France. Marine might get 45%.
I do however predict her winning in 2022, always assuming that the Jerries don’t stage a re-run of November 1963 and assassinate her first. She will need careful guarding between now and then.
Macron will govern France in the German, not the French, interest. He won’t even try to solve France’s problems, let alone actually solve them. In five years’ time Macron will no longer be a fresh face, just another failed, establishment politician. Thankfully his somewhat artificial party is unlikely to win a majority in the National Assembly next Sunday.
The EU Summit
As I predicted, the Brexit negotiations have turned into a farce. They’re over before they’ve even begun. The EU27 have rubber-stamped Donald Tusk’s recommendations, which were doubtless dictated to him by Angela Merkel. The EU will demand an exit fee before discussing tariff-free access to the so-called single market, which we don’t want anyway, given our massive trade deficit with the EU27.
The media are talking nonsense, if that’s not a tautology, about the amounts Britain ‘owes’ the EU. We owe the EU nothing, apart from our contribution to the EU budget between now and March 2019 when we finally leave.
There is no provision for exit fees in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. This can probably be put down to German arrogance. They were so sure of their control over EU member states, they never really thought that Article 50 would ever be used. Right up to the count they thought that they had successfully murdered their way to victory in last year’s referendum by assassinating Jo Cox. Victory was a sweet moment over opponents willing to drench themselves in the blood of a harmless, innocent Labour MP.
Article 50 is sloppily drafted, like much of EU law, but there is no doubt that a departing member state does not owe a penny to those that remain. EU pensions are an EU responsibility, e.g. The EU27 accept this, which is why they’re demanding an exorbitant sum as the price of tariff-free access to the single market, which they’re probably not willing to offer anyway without uncontrolled labor dumping on the UK. They want us to stump up the cash first, against a non-binding commitment to agree tariff-free access, which will be worth about as much as our community partner Adolf Hitler’s promise not to invade Poland.
This is all good news. The very last thing the UK wants or needs is a deal with the EU. They wouldn’t agree to any deal which was fair to Britain. The important thing is that we’ve served the Article 50 notice. We don’t need the agreement of the EU27 to leave – we’re off. These negotiations are about a possible post-departure deal.
German assets in Washington are doing their best to block the Anglo-American free trade deal. I still think it will happen, but it will take some time, given Germany’s evident influence over the Trump Administration’s foreign policy.
Sergeant Alexander Blackman RM
I refrained from commenting further on Sgt Blackman’s case lest I prejudice his appeal. I am delighted that he has now been released from prison, but I am not buying the substituted manslaughter verdict. Apart from anything else, the manslaughter conviction means that he won’t be able to own a firearm for at least five years, which is ridiculous.
Police protection in this country is largely a joke, as Theresa May saw when the Metropolitan Police let a terrorist into the Palace of Westminster in the hope that he would assassinate her. Most police forces are controlled by the Cabinet Office and would be unwilling or unable to offer any meaningful protection to Sgt Blackman. No Second Amendment rights here, let alone an NRA!
I should recap, for those unfamiliar with the case. Sgt Blackman, outrageously, was prosecuted by the Cabinet-Office controlled Service Prosecuting Authority, a pointless quango forced on us by the anti-British European Court of Human Rights, for the non-offense of slotting a badly wounded Taliban terrorist in Afghanistan.
The terrorist in question was part of a cell which had very properly been strafed by an Apache helicopter gunship. At no stage was an autopsy ever performed on this muppet. There are two major legal problems with causation for culpable homicide:
(1) There was no medical evidence tending to establish that the said terrorist was still clinging on to life when Sgt Blackman shot him. He might have been, but the prosecution had to prove that the round that Sgt Blackman fired accelerated his death, and
(2) Even if he was still alive the unlawful enemy combatant had been hit with cannon fire. Putting the matter at its lowest, he had been fatally wounded. Humanely dispatching mortally wounded enemy combatants, whether lawful or unlawful, is both morally and legally justified and in accordance with the honorable traditions of men at arms. Whatever may be said at the time, it is an act of mercy. Those arguing otherwise are welcome to try dying in agony and see how they feel about a quick bullet instead.
The Laws of War do not oblige you to be nice to the enemy you are dispatching, not least if he or she is an unlawful combatant who has been waging war outside the Laws. This particular terrorist seems to have been a murderous piece of filth, no offense intended, who richly deserved to die. Doubtless he had raped and murdered in the brutal cause to which he had dedicated himself. He was a Taliban terrorist after all, not a doctor with MSF.
The British legal system has failed Sgt Blackman, the Royal Marines and Western Civilization. Sgt Blackman put his life on the line to free Afghanistan from tyranny and barbarism. The least we owe him is to clear his name. He should be granted a Royal Pardon, restored to the ranks and promoted. I’m not saying that he should have been given a medal for slotting this particular terrorist in these particular circumstances, if he did in fact slot him, but he should not have been condemned, let alone prosecuted.
The Service Prosecuting Authority should be abolished and the old system restored. The learned trial judge, with great respect, should be shuffled off to a quiet county court somewhere, preferably in the North, or sent out to
New South Wales.
So who froze the rabbit?
The fate of Simon the big bunny has made headlines across the English-speaking world. The Chinese aren’t concerned of course, since he wasn’t a panda.
Not content with dragging elderly doctors off their aircraft in order to make them miss their appointments, United Airlines has now taken to killing fluffy bunnies. What on earth are they on?
If they were going to freeze a bunny to death, couldn’t they have chosen a skinny one? Instead they had to choose the fluffiest, cutest bunny they could find, and a British one at that. No offense, but they might have been better off freezing poor old Dr Dao to death and dragging Simon off the plane unconscious.
I’m glad my frequent flyer miles with United have expired! Next internal flight I take in the States will be on American. There is no sign, yet, that the DVD were involved, although knocking off fluffy bunnies would be just their style.
Michael Shrimpton was a barrister from his call to the Bar in London in 1983 until being disbarred in 2019 over a fraudulently obtained conviction. He is a specialist in National Security and Constitutional Law, Strategic Intelligence and Counter-terrorism. He is a former Adjunct Professor of Intelligence Studies at the American Military University.