Israel: Why Russia may not respond to the alleged Israeli airstrike in Syria

20
20
Satellite image of a CERS facility near Masyaf reportedly hit by an Israeli airstrike overnight Wednesday, September 7, 2017 (screen capture: Google Earth)

[Editor’s note:  This is Israel’s rationale for their recent bombing attack on Syria.  We just print the news, we don’t fabricate it. G]

How will Moscow respond to the alleged Israeli attack Thursday on a facility in northwestern Syria where the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad is said to have stockpiled chemical weapons and missiles?

Analysts have contemplated various possible Russian responses to the attack on the Masyaf base, near Hama, which took place early Thursday morning. Many have suggested that Russia cannot ignore the attack, which occurred some 70 kilometers (40 miles) from its Khmeimim Air Force Base in Syria.

Nonetheless, Russia appears to have good reason to turn a blind eye to this attack, as it has done in the past.

The Russians are certainly interested in retaining their control over Assad and ensuring his victory over the opposition forces, both religious and secular. For this reason, the Russians have even overlooked his chemical attacks on civilians.

An unconscious Syrian child is carried at a hospital in Khan Sheikhoun, a rebel-held town in the northwestern Syrian Idlib province, following a suspected toxic gas attack on April 4, 2017. (AFP PHOTO / Omar haj kadour)

It is also important for Russia to demonstrate its superiority in the region. The attacks attributed to Israel so near their own position pose a definite challenge to their control.

However, the Russians also understand that bringing non-conventional weapons to the region, or any weapons which Israel considers to be a game-changer, could have the opposite result than that which they seek in Syria.

Instead of stability, they could see an escalation, with Israel confronting the Syrians and Iranians, and further destabilizing elements entering the region.

Another possible explanation for why Russia would possibly prefer to ignore Israeli attacks was Wednesday’s United Nations report.

UN war crimes investigators said they had evidence that Assad’s government forces were behind a chemical attack that killed dozens of people in Khan Sheikhoun in April and had perpetrated seven such attacks between last March and the end of July.

These attacks occurred despite the regime’s September 2013 commitment to Moscow to destroy all stockpiles of chemical weapons, as part of a wider agreement with the US and the international community.

It is possible that the Syrians, by using chemical weapons, tricked not only the rest of the world but also the Russians.

Though Israel has not confirmed its role in Thursday’s attack, the strike has nevertheless been widely attributed to the Jewish state, with the understanding among analysts that the Syrian weapons facility was being used to violate the red lines Israel has set.

Different than previous attacks

Israel has attacked dozens of targets across Syria in previous years. In August, a former commander of Israel’s air force said that it had carried out dozens of airstrikes on weapons convoys destined for Hezbollah over the past five years. The remarks by Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel revealed for the first time the scale of the strikes, which are usually neither confirmed nor denied by the IAF.

However, Thursday’s attack was different.

This time, the target was considered more valuable and the operation was more dangerous.

First, the location: Hama, north of Damascus, is deep inside Syria, and not far from Russian military positions.

Second, the timing: As the Syrian civil war winds down, it becomes impossible for Israel to try to lay blame for such attacks on opposition groups. Additionally the attack came a day after the tenth anniversary of the (apparent) Israeli attack which destroyed Syria’s Korean-built Dir a-Zur nuclear reactor.

Before and after satellite images of the Syrian nuclear reactor at al-Kibar, which was reportedly struck by Israel in 2007 (AP/DigitalGlobe)

Before and after satellite images of the Syrian nuclear reactor at al-Kibar, which was reportedly struck by Israel in 2007 (AP/DigitalGlobe)

Third, the target: This was a facility of Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Center (CERS), which is a cover for the manufacture of secret weapons, both chemical and non-chemical, as well as rockets and missiles.

An attack on this type of facility, at this time and place, if committed by Israel, sends a clear message to Iran and of course to the Syrian regime: When Israel’s red lines — such as the building of precision rockets, or Iranian facilities like an air base or port — are crossed, it will take action.

This attack may not cause the Russians to rush to end Iranian efforts at expansion in Syria. However, it might just cause Tehran to reconsider its ambitious plans.

If not, this could all end in bloody confrontation between Israel, Syria and Assad’s ally Iran.

Comments Closed

20 COMMENTS

  1. “How will Moscow respond to the alleged Israeli attack Thursday on a facility in northwestern Syria where the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad is said to have stockpiled chemical weapons and missiles?”

    It would be nice if Moscow forced Israel to turn over its own chemical weapons, while pointing out all the documented cases of Israeli Air Force using their chemicals on innocent civilians. It would be nice if Moscow raised concerns about Israel’s hundreds of illegal nuclear weapons. It would be nice if Moscow would shoot down any Israeli jet that invades Syrian airspace to drop bombs on the Syrian government, in defense of their proxy terrorist armies in Syria. It would be nice if Moscow demanded to see hard evidence that proves beyond reasonable doubt that Assad ever used chemical weapons, because as of now, they’re using unsubstantiated and weak allegations as false justification for committing illegal air strikes on Syrian government territory and forces.

    • If none of that worked, it would be nice if Moscow would send in a hit squad to terminate Bibi. It would be nice if Syria would bomb the illegal Israeli “settlements” in the Golan heights, in retaliation for the 100+ illegal air strikes committed by Israel on Syrian territory, while defending their scumbag terrorist buddies from the effective and righteous Syrian army. Why would a president with an 88.7% approval rating bomb his own people with chemical weapons? The only logical answer to that question is, he wouldn’t. Plain and simple.

  2. Important story for us to see (from Times of Israel). We don’t ordinarily or often see this propaganda. What’s important to show is what many/most Israelis & Americans believe. Regardless, some of it is true, and some of it is false. You/We need to learn the difference — if we do not already know.

    With Khibiny-type defensive EMG A2/AD EW, Russia can probably ‘neutralize’ the Israeli jets — just as Russia did with all but 23 Tomahawk missiles that Trump & Co. fired at a Syrian air base. Just as Russia did with the USS ‘Donald Duck’ in the Black Sea. And just as China may have done with the Fitz & McCain near Japan & China, respectively.

    If or Since so, then Russia holds the ‘trump card’ in Syria & Mideast; and China holds the ‘trump card’ if Trump & Co. do stupid stuff against Kim & DPRK.

    If or Since true, then the Balance of Power is now multi-polar; and Trump is fast squandering any chance for the U.S. to be one of the ‘poles’… Sad. 😉

  3. Whatever the rationalizations for the attacks provided for in this article. Russia has just given Israel carte blanche to repeat and escalate the attacks of Thursday.I think we can expect more such attacks in the days ahead.Putin has proven he will not risk war with Israel over Syria.

    • CW: Regardless of what U.S., Israel & others do, Syria, Russia, Hezbollah, Iraq & Iran are on the verge of winning the war in Syria.

      NO need for Russia to ramp up the conflict into a ‘big war’ — which is precisely what Rotten-Child, Bibi & Co. want.

    • I don’t believe this is a carte blanche to Israel. I think it is Israeli desperation because the integrated air-defence system is coming online in Syria. When it’s operational it will be very difficult for Israel to keep taking these potshots. It’s more like they thought: Let’s take a shot while we still can!

  4. How to explain that people were helping victims after alledged chemical attacks without any protection. I believe that with Sarin that’s not possible.

  5. fake news.. ha. notice, VT commented above the story that they “just print” the stories and don’t fabricate anything. Seeings as how VT has done lengthy stories about the false flag chemical weapons attacks in Syria, I’m fairly certain they don’t believe this garbage coming from Israel either.

  6. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has chemical weapons? Now? Israel has a moral compass? Now? Photo of the injured child is necessary, and represents a fair view of Syria, and Russia? Now?Above article is meant to promote this view? There are many ways to report news? UN reports are factual, fair, and uncensored? Now? There is more than 1 logical reason for Russia to not intervene? Suddenly?

    • The MIT professor – IIRC his name was Postol – wrote a report already in April that clearly showed the s.c. chemical attack was an event that differed significantly from the story the news agencies launched. Prof. Postol’s report was also published in full here on VT. Did the recent UN report refer to the professor’s work? These are the kinds of questions that must be asked.
      http://news.onthe.fyi/news/white-house-claims-on-syria-chemical-attack-obviously-false-prof-theodor-postol-of-mit?uid=34093
      Well, I must say it more strongly than RT did, that in my opinion it is an understatement

      « Assessment of White House Intelligence Report of April 11, 2017
      April 17, 2017 Page 1 of 14 Pages
      A Quick Turnaround Assessment of the White House Intelligence Report Issued on April 11 , 20!7
      Theodore A. Postol, Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology, and National Security Policy,
      Massachusetts Institute of Technology
      Dear Larry, I am responding to your distribution of what I understand is a White House statement claiming intelligence about the nerve agent attack in Khan Shaykhun, Syria. . . . »

  7. As a reader of the comments here, just what precisely did the editors expect from allowing this story. It seems most VT readers are years beyond this type of propaganda drivel.

  8. Bibi picked the wrong allies, now the little Khasar is really going for broke. This is when the manure gets broadcast.

  9. Nothing in this propaganda article which was also basically in the NY post today
    http://nypost.com/2017/09/07/israel-just-showed-what-a-red-line-is-really-supposed-to-mean/gives the rogue outlaw nations Israel and its backer the U.S. authority to illegally continue to attack Syria. Russia should give Israel 24 hours notice for all civilians to vacate Tel Aviv and the Nuclear Facility and then level both of them. The longer you tolerate a bully the worse it gets. They should also level the underground bunkers reportedly being built by the U.S. for Israel. Israel and the U.S. desperately need to be taught a lesson. Perhaps Putin should also order evacuation of the White House and level it too.

    • All citizens of the U.S. must demand an immediate halt of all support and aid to the outlaw criminal rogue nation of Israel by the U.S. Government lest WWIII result very soon.

Comments are closed.