
Trita Parsi
Trita Parsi is the author of “Losing an Enemy — Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy” and the President of the National Iranian American Council. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion articles on CNN.
Trita Parsi is a regular contributor to VT.
CNNThe world has become so numb to the words of the President of the United States that it even dismisses threats of war as either a political distraction or a Trumpian negotiation tactic.
Indeed, Donald Trump’s threat to inflict on Iran “CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE” may very well have been an effort to divert attention from the Russia investigation. Others have dismissed the danger of the tweet since Trump did an about-face on North Korea, going from calling the North Korean dictator “rocket man” to a “very honorable” man. And, on Tuesday, Trump stated once again that he’s “ready to make a deal” with Iran.
But there are five reasons why a pivot from threats to diplomacy with Iran will be much harder — and why Trump’s reckless threats may trap the United States in yet another war.
1. Saudi Arabia and Israel oppose diplomacy. Japan and South Korea advocated it.
The geopolitical circumstances around North Korea differ vastly from that of the Middle East. In the North Korean case, America’s allies — and even its Chinese competitor — strongly opposed any military confrontation with Pyongyang and pushed for diplomacy. In fact, the pivot to diplomacy with North Korea had far more to do with the South Korean President’s maneuvering in the background than Kim Jong Un fearing Trump’s “fire and fury” or his sanctions.
In the Middle East, the situation is the opposite: American allies, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have long opposed US-Iran diplomacy (with an impressive track record of sabotaging attempts at US-Iran dialogue). Mindful of their influence in Washington and the Trump administration’s deference to them, any attempt by Trump to pivot to diplomacy with Iran will likely face a formidable challenge by these Middle Eastern powers.
Moreover, there is no obvious “South Korea” in the Middle East today that can quietly do behind-the-scenes shuttle diplomacy to bring the United States and Iran together — at least not one Trump would engage.
Former President Barack Obama needed a go-between to make diplomacy with Iran bear fruit. In that case, it was the country of Oman, which helped establish a secret diplomatic channel with Iran, paving the way for the historic nuclear deal of 2015. But Trump is unlikely to turn to Oman precisely because Obama did so.
2. Trump thinks pressure will force Iran to negotiate. He’s wrong.
3. North Korea has a one-man dictator. Iran has politics.
4. Don’t forget: Trump hates Obama.
5. Trump advisers don’t want a deal; they want regime collapse.
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Gordon Duff is a Marine combat veteran of the Vietnam War. He is a disabled veteran and has worked on veterans and POW issues for decades. Gordon is an accredited diplomat and is generally accepted as one of the top global intelligence specialists. He manages the world’s largest private intelligence organization and regularly consults with governments challenged by security issues.
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And a war is urgently needed to distract from homegrown shit in both countries and thos behind the curtain
LS…
Trump, Iran, China, Korea, Europe, NATO ! All the Fuzz & Tweets could be all smoke screens and the real thing may happen behind closed doors !
The Hebrews-Jews have taken the, ‘Chosen People’ story from the Babylonians, while in their captivity! The Babylonians adopted it from the, “Sumerian Epic of GILGAMESH”, one of their kings, Gilgamesh, who with his family and friends, were saved, CHOSEN, by one God, ‘EA’, who gave warning to Gilgamesh, to build a boat, (The Great Flood), since all the other Gods were unhappy about what the population was doing in the city of, SHURRUPAK, on the bank of the EUPHRATES, and are planning to unleash a great flood on them. Now this epic dates back to 3 thousand B.C., while the Hebrews were captives around 1500 B.C. The “Hebrews”, ‘that name originates from Old Egyptian, HEBREW..with a meaning of, ‘trespasser’, someone who is not liked, wanted in the neighborhood! Interesting!
“God/Creator gave us Reason not Religion.” Wrote our Thomas Paine some 240 years ago. All the religions are came about because of our ancestors, primitive, superstitious ignorance about the world around them. Control Freak Charlatans, like, Moses, Mohamed more recently one Joseph Smith and many others, to this day, have brainwashed, convinced the trusting clueless, searching for answers masses of humanity. The ‘offspring’ of religion is Ideology! From Marxist Bolshevik Communism, Fascism to Zionism, these movements, Religion and Ideology served the Control Freaks amongst us, ‘to divide and conquer’ their fellow Men. Religion and Ideology are the, “Curses of Mankind!”
LS…
I do not have the ultimate knowledge of all of this information but there must be a lot of truth in it. Most religions if not all are fraud and fabrications of mafia like charlatans who will suppress mankind with their perversion and diabolical rules. Wes Penre was the first who comes very close to the real story in my perception
There is a saying in Persian (my interpretation probably does not do it justice – I’ll try anyway), “Don’t fear one who threatens you with a loud voice and lots of tough words trying to attract everyone’s attention, but fear him who speaks softly and has a humble attitude but no fear in his heart”. They knew psychology of war well before Europe and America were formed, that’s why for the past 200 years they’ve never attacked another country, but when and if attacked they respond with everything they have. Besides, the justice is on their side as they have the moral right to defend their land when attacked – that they will do like fire ants and defeat is not an option.
The saying fits well.
We can see from the example, of the 12 billion he just grabbed to offset his damage to his own base of farmers, that he will force others to pay for his own mistakes. This means if he hits a roadblock in NK, then Jung Un sits in the driver seat and can extort at will. The more successful he is in NK, the less he will care about the ramifications of dropping the Iran deal. Either way, the big difference is, North Koreans are prone to converting to Evangelical Christianity, and Iranians are not. The transition from the moderates to the hawks, is due to their willingness to do whatever he wants just so they can have their religious beliefs imposed upon the world. There’s no polite way to say it. They convert their crimes into, “Gods interestingly mysterious ways and means plan”. The old, “the devil made me do it” , newly converted to “We can’t question Gods interesting and mysterious plan”. They are building straw houses in the wind on the premise of blind faith.
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