EU experts claim US Iran sanctions will fail, and why


[ Editor’s Note: This is the first EU experts’ weigh in on the effect of the US-Iran sanctions, the reasons why, and they make a lot of sense.

These are not “Iran lovers” that have been hunted down for hit comments, but professionals calling the situation as they see it. Iran had led with this theme, on the simple grounds that it has survived worse in the past.

But the difference now is Iran’s sustaining a defensive military build up in the face of US, Israeli and Saudi aggression. For example, it has already begun manufacturing its first fighter planes.

The big question is how far will Trump and the NeoCons push secondary sanctions on those doing business with Iran? The EU has committed to doing so, even Britain. So how much pain is Washington really willing to inflict on them, and what will be their response?

Will the US Treasury Department focus on hurting the companies, and thus create political heat on the respective governments? And if the US really “nuts out” on the EU with sanctions, will that have any effect on NATO and US basing rights?

Will others feel they can follow suit with Trump and break any agreements they want? And what happens if Europeans start demonstrating in the streets against the US, throwing eggs and tomatoes at US Embassies?

Pompeo just said Iranian leaders have to bow down if they want their people to eat – quite an admission that the sanctions are aimed at the people to stimulate regime change, a silly NeoCon dream, as it just makes Iranians hate the US more.

If EU companies are financially hurt by US-Iran sanctions, then would their respective governments start freezing US assets in compensation? How far will the game of showdown go? Right now, nobody really knows, including TrumpJim W. Dean ]

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– First published … November 09,2018

The impacts of fresh US sanctions on Iran have been cushioned by high oil prices and Washington’s international isolation, with Tehran being better placed to weather the storm, a Reuters analysis says.  

Citing officials and analysts, the news agency said while the US sanctions will probably trigger recession in Iran next year, they will not lead to an economic meltdown.

US President Donald Trump on Monday decided to trumpet sanctions on Iran not with a speech, but a Twitter meme in reference to Game of Thrones, “Sanctions are coming.”

“Iran’s situation is better than pre-2016 because of high oil prices and the fact that the US is isolated this time,” the report by Reuters quoted a European diplomat as saying.

The diplomat’s comments echo the official stance of the Iranian government, which says the recent rise in oil prices has offset the impact of US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.

“Trump thought he could shrink our country’s oil revenues by imposing sanctions on Iran’s oil and cutting its exports, but the rise in oil prices did not let that happen,” Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, the head of Iran’s Planning and Budget Organization, said last month.

The US has also granted waivers to almost all key clients of Iran’s crude oil for fear of further hikes in oil prices. The countries exempted from the US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports include China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea, which together took in over 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports last year.

However, Iran says the waivers are not enough to keep the oil price down, and oil consumers are set for “painful months” ahead because of insufficient supplies.

Read more:

Meanwhile, as the European diplomat told Reuters, the US isolation under President Donald Trump would also reduce the impact of its unilateral sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

The previous sanctions on Iran, imposed by Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama, were supported by the UN Security Council and the European Union. However, this time the US is alone, and the entire world, except for a few countries, have vowed to maintain business with Iran.

“It will be a difficult period but Iran’s economy will withstand it for various reasons,” a second diplomat told Reuters, “including (the fact of) Russia being under (US and EU) sanctions, Saudi Arabia having its own financial and political issues, and (trade war) between China and the United States.”

The report also quoted a Fitch solutions analyst as saying that the new sanctions would not lead to the collapse of the Iranian economy, as the country would be able to keep exporting a significant volume of its crude oil.

“Tehran is still likely to see a substantial share of its foreign exchange earnings maintained,” Andrine Skjelland told Reuters. “This will enable Tehran to continue subsidizing imports of selected basic goods, keeping the costs of these down and thus limiting inflation to some extent.”

The new round of US sanctions, which had been lifted under a multilateral 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, came back into force on Nov. 5, drawing criticisms from the United Nations as well as Washington’s allies in the European Union.

The bans – the second of their kind since Washington’s withdrawal from the deal in May — take aim at Iran’s banking, insurance and energy sectors, targeting more than 700 entities. The first round was reinstated in August.

The European Union, which coordinated the talks leading to the nuclear deal, is set to enact a financial mechanism to facilitate banking transactions with Iran.

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  1. The battle for control of the Eurasian Land Mass has shifted from an East/West orientation to a North South one. Independent of what one thinks about Hitler and his theories, for me as a Catholic they are abhorent, he went with the likes of the Thule Society and the Swedish Aristocracy in promoting theories about the Aryan Race. Now the Wise Guys work with what THEY term “Rational Thought”, which is involved with Post “Enlightenment” Empiricism and Positiviism. Using this outline as a basis, it is possible to explain the apparently paradoxical fact of High Level International Banker control of the very Concentration Camps that held their own people destined for Citizenship of the “State” of Israel. Having said that, I don’t believe that THEY are all Jewish and accept the President of Business International’s analysis that it is “more like a Big Bowl of Spaghetti, something that came out of the Middle East”. The common thread is that THEY adhere to an amoral code, typified and best know, but not exclusively represented, in the Babylonian Talmud. I call it the Aryan Axis and that theory involves the fact that both India and Persia are branches of the original Aryan retreat from the Steppes, with the various branches driven back to the corner of the European Penninsula, Persia and India respectively.

    • The Vikings (Tribe of Dan) spearheaded a strategy of World Wide Naval Encirclement of the Eurasian Land mass, including Naval Outpost NZ/Aotearoa at the centre of the World Ocean, with Australia guarding the Northern Approaches. I said to Captain Northwood that “Australia is a Claymore Mine”. He said: “whaaaat”? At the end of WW2, the USN wanted to sluice the surrounding hills into Poneke/Port Nicholson in a land relaimation of the Wellington Harbour, in exchange for a 99 year lease on a naval base. The attack on Guadalcanal was lauched from there in 1942. My conversations with Father Pharissey of the Saint Columban’s Mission Society, Parish Priest at Subic Bay during the Vietnam War, reassured me that the decision of my Grandfather and other Senior Public Servants to respectfully decline the above proposal was a sound one.

    • Hitler had no interest in Aryan theory or the occult, all those stories are black propaganda. Himmler did, but he was probably the only one of the senior Nazis who had any interest in the occult. Goering thought such things were lunacy, Borrmann too, Hess had some limited interest in Teutonic-Aryan pseudo history. Hitler was anti-Catholic because he wanted to break the Church’s control over the peoples of Europe, which has been by far the worst scourge to beset Europe in the last 2000 years, far, far worse than anything the Nazis ever did.

    • The Corollary of NZ/Aotearoa sitting at the Centre of The World Ocean, is that the Antipodes are diametrically opposite The Mediterranean (Middle of The Land) and The “State” Known as “Israel” sits at the epicentre of The Shamrock of the World Land mass. Three parts are; Africa, Asia and the European Peninsula/America (The Atlantic is a Ditch). In other words it is a fulcrum from which to manipulate a three sided Balance of power.

      The development of this latest scenario plays Russia/China off against UK/America and Europe is moving to control Africa and its resources, through weakening both other major block in mindless military competition. The UK, managed by Undemocratic Power, will play a Slimy Hypocritical Role in proceedings as usual, with MI6 an International Banker controlled organisation from the beginning and the HQ of the NZ SIS Bureau.

      My father, NZ Army 44888, Lt K. V. Paul was discharged from the army at 1100 hours on 11 November 1945. he lost an uncle in WW1. He set me up to live a life of Truth and Peace. I wish to teach that to my children and grandchildren.

    • David Mitchell said that the 21st Century would be the Century of Tribalism. Irrespective of who said what, people can be manipulated in the Real Political by Tribal Loyalty. I believe that this is the case today, with Identitarian Politics the latest version of Divide and Rule. The new tribes aren’t just formed along racial lines but on Manufactured Consensus of “Self” Indentified Groups. The situation on the ground is that there is a North South Axis Evolving and historically there are grounds to call it the Aryan Axis, even if that is somewhat of a misnomer today.

      As far as the Catholic Church is concerned, Lord Acton, a Catholic, had this to say (see below)when the Pope declared himself Infallible on about 1870. To my mind, the Catholic Catechism and Theology (including Orthodoxy) offers a viable Whole of Society View that has the only Institutional Power to counter the Evil that grips a World Ruled by The Prince of Lies. I support the analysis of the likes of E. Michael Jones. Perhaps you could approach this from an Allegorical point of view. The problem is outlined in the Home Spun Philosophy of Yogi Berra, the New York Yankees catcher: “in theory, theory and practice are the same, in practise they ain’t”. That is outlined in more sophisticated form by Lord Acton.

    • “You say that people in authority are not to be snubbed or sneered atfrom our pinnacle of conscious rectitude. I really don’t know whether you exempt them because of their rank, or of their success or power, or of their date…..I cannot accept your cannon that we are to judge Pope and King, unlike other men, with a favoured presumption that they did no wrong. If there is any presumption, it is the other way, against holders of power, increasing as the power increases. Historic responsibility has to make up for the want of legal responsibility. Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men, even when they exercis influence and not authority…”

      The Supreme Hierophant is a title taken in Syncretic Fashion by the Romanised Church to represent the function of Judgement. We have seen how the US Supreme Court has been captured as a modeern analogy. There have been plenty of Anti Christs who have controlled The Papacy in the past, with the Borgias as exemplars of that. The answer is not to abandon the Whole of Society view that formed the basis of the development of Europe. “Ora Et Labora”. Ian, your namesake John sets out Logos best, as a counter to the Sanhedron’s defiance of Natural Law. Read and inwardly digest.

    • No, I already have and it’s a load of nonsense, read some of David Irving’s books on the top Nazis, he fully exposes that old propaganda lie about Nazi occultism and esoteric wierdness.

    • I just love Ian Greenhalgh, so principled and combative. All the Good Poms (Prisoners Of Mother England) come from the North. Ian refuses to accept the lot of the True Brits with True Grit and fights the good fight to contest the dominance of the various waves of Over Lords that have taken over the British Isles to control back into Europe. I have learned so much in rethinking my ideas and beliefs from First Principle, as a result of Ian’s No Nonsense, Common Sense and Pithy Observations. We are all moving to the Truth from the various spokes of a wheel, leading towards The Hub.

    • I have taken in a lot of Irving’s work and will get down to that detail. Don’t let the sweeping branding of the basic scenario as detracting from the analysis. The Aryan thing is an historic detail and many have believed that stuff, including a Latvian member of the Second NZ Pacific Lodge, our leading Political and Theoretical Lodge in this country. Study Quator Coranati (Four Crowns), historically the leading UK theoretical masonic think tank.

  2. The USA under Trump is acting like a LUNATIC …… Trump thinks ALL other Nations are Subordinates of USA and IF USA Orders Everyone to Boycott IRAN then Everybody will Dump their National Interests and be a good little Slave to the USA ……………. Trump and Those in Power in the USA are Hardheaded Fools Who have Calculated Everything WRONG and Other Nations , Even USA ” Allies ” , will Follow their National Interests ……….. Oil Everybody Needs So to Expect ALL to Boycott IRAN is a Folly and Soon it will be Evident that EVERYBODY will Ignore Trump’s Stupid Orders and Expectations …….. These AntiIRAN Sanctions will Lead Everyone to Defy the USA and soon Everybody will Start Following Their Own National Interests and then some will Even ” Moon ” the USA as USA under The Stupidest called Trump is Proving itself a FOOL …… IRAN will One Again Prevail …….. USA Breaking Treaties is leading Everyone to Defy USA openly ……

  3. I have been following this and Trump getting out of treaties and agreements is definitely isolating us and I see it as deliberate.

  4. This administration is out of control. Those who continue to support tRump and his disastrous policies are not thinking things through at the cost of what’s left of America’s credibility or the blow back from the EU.
    Do they really care? Apparently not. They are flirting with disaster.
    The entire The entire White House is one giant lunatic asylum.
    If there were anyone in the military, particularly in command, with the integrity, sense of patriotic duty and moral responsibility, they would take down this bunch. Arrest the lot of them and as suggested set up a provisional government until a purge of the rest of Washington.
    I’m not holding my breath. I have no confidence, trust or faith in Washington.
    Only fear, distrust, suspicion and loathing.

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