By Dr.Osama Ismail
In a surprise move, Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif resigned from his post, in parallel with the reception of Supreme Leader Bashar al-Assad, a spiritual meeting and IRGC officials without the knowledge of the Iranian Foreign Minister. In a short time, his resignation was rejected and returned to office. Those hours of crisis have borne signs and indicators of a larger crisis than their appearance. This can be understood in the context of some analysts pointing out that Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif submitted his resignation about two weeks ago but was not accepted by Iranian President Hassan Rhouni and Supreme Leader “Ali Khamenei”, and hence Zarif wanted to put the s Iranian authorities with a fait accompli by announcing the resignation through his account on the social networking site “instagram “.
In the same context, several factors contributed to the pressure on the Iranian Foreign Minister, but on the president himself deliberately not to participate in meetings of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Tehran, which brought together the Iranian leader “Ali Khamenei and the head of the Revolutionary Guard,” Qasim Soleimani, “disorder The relationship between conservatives and reformers, as well as the international embarrassment of the rejection by the Council of Expediency Discernment of the accession of Tehran to the agreement “VATV.” Although Zarif declined to resign, but the same event confirms the existence of a real crisis within the regime of the Islamic Republic.
A number of researchers pointed out that Jawad Zarif’s announcement of his resignation through Instagram came to embarrass Hassan Rowhani and impose a de facto policy on his government. Zarif also attached a request to resign in a meeting with Bashar al-Assad with Rouhani and Qasim Silmani in reference to the policy of deliberate marginalization before the Iranian regime.
II. The implications of the resolution
The factors that explained Zarif’s move were the deliberate marginalization of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the decline in the economic revenues of the nuclear agreement and the imposition of sanctions, the exertion of many pressures on him as a result of his role within the comprehensive joint work plan, the international embarrassment of refusing to join the Labor Convention (FATF), which can be illustrated as follows:
1. The feasibility of staying within the nuclear agreement
The US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement on May 18, 2018, was the straw that divided the camel’s back for an internal and external Rouhani government. The Iranian government relied on the economic gains of the nuclear agreement, but after the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, Iran returned to square zero, The best option is to abide by its terms, especially towards European countries and international organizations. The United States has also re-imposed economic sanctions.
As a result of the above, the Rouhani government has failed to fulfill its greatest commitment to lift economic sanctions, reopen the international community at all levels, and improve the living conditions of citizens. Position weakly externally .
2 – Differences between moderates and hardliners
The hard line within Iran is a group of institutions including the Expediency Council, the Guardian Council, many of whom are calling for a withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, and non-compliance with its terms, especially after the US withdrawal. The militants also accused Zarif of being too lenient and making big concessions to Europeans and Americans under the administration of former US President Barack Obama.
Zarif was subjected to some pressure by the deputies in the Iranian parliament. He was summoned for questioning more than once, and the same order was given to President Rohani, which led to the dismissal of some ministers within his government such as the Minister of Trade and Industry, Mohammad Shariatmadari.
3 – the embarrassment of Zarif internationally and refused to join the “Vatf
The refusal of the Expediency Council to join the FATF treaty on money laundering and the financing of terrorism has led to international embarrassment, despite the many opportunities offered by European countries to Tehran through the European financial channel launched by Europe in exchange for Iran’s accession to this agreement, which focused on bypassing US sanctions (5).
Thus, the Iranian researcher “Farahzaman Shawki” admitted that the news of Zarif’s resignation confused the Europeans a lot, and the actual resignation could have led to the possibility of ending the nuclear agreement; because he was an architect of the nuclear agreement, as well as being within the moderate camp and its openness And his studies at the universities of the United States of America, his work with the United Nations, has greatly facilitated many of the European missions with Iran.
III. The future of a “spiritual” government under internal divisions
Zarif apologized to the Iranian people during his presentation of the resignation proposal, which was undone by the promises he could not fulfill towards the Iranian people under Rohani’s government, especially after the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement. The US administration wants to reduce the Iranian regime’s claws by limiting its regional influence. Which is not consistent with the views of hardliners within the Islamic Republic, notably the Revolutionary Guards; where he described Zarif conflict between the Iranian factions with a deadly name on foreign policy.
Hence, a “spiritual” government will be negatively affected even after Zarif’s retreat from the resignation because this event would reveal the depth of the crisis facing the Islamic Republic, and the failure of the Iranian regime to contain the conflicts within the political arena.
In conclusion, the announcement of Zarif’s resignation at this critical time in the history of the Islamic Republic is expected to confront Iran under many pressures in various issues and the intensification of conflicts between the political factions, in light of the loss of mutual trust between the Europeans and the spiritual government. “In exchange for activating the financial mechanism launched by European countries to overcome US sanctions on Tehran.