Valentin Yu. Katasonov.
The Chinese way is the road to nowhere. In fact, China has been trying for several decades to sit on two chairs. This gap between ideology and economic realities, today it has reached such an extent that China is almost doomed to catastrophe.
In fact, the Communist Party, communist ideology is just a fig leaf that covers China’s development along the path of dependent capitalism. This is precisely dependent semi-colonial capitalism. And simply due to the fact that today there is a fairly high level of consumption, and most importantly, that it is growing, it creates an illusion that this is some kind of alternative to the classical capitalism that has existed in Europe for at least 200, or even 300 years.
But this illusion will soon disappear. Because China has been dragged into the world capitalist economy as, let us say so, a workshop. Well, once England was a world workshop. Today, China is such a world workshop that serves most of humanity, and especially the United States. But today globalization is ending. It is almost over. And accordingly, the development of the model that has evolved over several centuries ends, we will say so.
Namely, the capitalist model. Because the capitalist model, many spoke of this both in the 19th century and in the 20th century, it rests on the markets. That is, the problem of implementation. Lagging demand, lagging solvent demand. Actually, this disproportion between the supply of goods and services and limited solvent demand is a consequence of this usurious model.
Because in this usurious model, monetary liabilities always exceed the money supply by the amount of accrued interest. And from here, in fact, this principle of bicycle arises. That is, the economy must constantly grow. Hence, accordingly, these false ideologies. Open any textbook, so the keyword “economic growth”, you see. Usury, economic growth have not only a single etymology, but also have a single logic.
Because both there and there is a growth of cancer cells. And these cancer cells form metastases and destroy society, destroy all of humanity. I’m talking so dotted. China, too, has become exposed to these cancer cells. There it all happens very quickly. Today, China is no longer able to provide further export growth. Globalization is over.
Accordingly, China had the only alternative – to develop its domestic market. But China cannot develop the domestic market even because it requires truly colossal human efforts. Because the domestic market is the creation of an integrated single national economic complex. The only such example of creating a single national economic complex was the Soviet Union.
As a result of industrialization, as a result of the most difficult five-year plans. Today’s Chinese is no longer ready for such victims, for such a mobilization. And even here the latest events related to the fact that the yuan was in the basket of reserve currencies posed a dilemma for China. So, what next is to be done with this toy called “reserve currency yuan”. Or go along the American model, along the American path. Or go the Japanese way.
The American way – this means putting the yuan into orbit is really not a reserve, but already a world currency. The introduction of the national currency into the orbit of the world currency implies a very serious mobilization. Moreover, the mobilization is not so much even some physical or even some kind of intellectual. Assumes, we will say so, the sacrifice of certain moral principles, basic principles. That is, in the USA, we see what this means. The United States at the end of the 19th century became the first industrial power in the world. Their dollar was a provincial currency, so provincial that, in fact, no one even used it in Europe.
There were several reasons, including one of the reasons that the United States did not have its own central bank. Therefore, this dollar was issued by many American banks. Therefore, in order to bring the American dollar into world currency orbit, a central bank was required. And it was created a little more than 100 years ago, at the end of December 1913. Now, China has its own central bank, called the People’s Bank of China. But this was a necessary but not sufficient condition.
Just as soon as the central bank called the Fed was created, the First World War began. Some people think that this is accidental, or even do not pay attention to these chronological coincidences. But this is internal logic, a kind of internal backstage plan of the owners of money. The First World War, of course, raised the American dollar to a very great height. Nevertheless, even after the First World War, the American dollar failed to become the only world currency.
There was some parity between the British pound and the American dollar. And the owners of the money also needed the Second World War. And already in the 44th year at the Bretton Woods Conference, finally, this status of the American dollar as a world currency was finally legalized de jure. In fact, the Chinese should understand what they need to do in order for the yuan to become a world currency.
The second option is Japanese. I studied at a time when everyone was discussing the so-called “Japanese economic miracle.” Today we are well aware that behind this so-called economic miracle, certain geopolitical plans of the owners of money were hidden. Japan was needed as a kind of, let’s say so, counterbalance to the Soviet Union in the Far East. And some began to say: here is a real competitor to the American dollar. But it all ended up pretty banal.
Agreement “Plaza” – the 1985th year. This is a meeting of the central banks of several leading countries. And Uncle Sam demanded from Japan to increase the yen by order. After that, the “Japanese economic miracle” was finally covered with a copper basin, and the yen has already begun to lose its position. And actually, the yen remains today only formally in the basket of reserve currencies.
But the newly made reserve yuan even has more weight in this basket than the British pound and the Japanese yen. Here, in fact, the Chinese have 2 such options. There is, of course, the third option. But he is being discussed there in a very narrow circle – this is a return to, let us say so, the Soviet model. This is a model that involves a state currency monopoly. Yuan should return to the fold of the national economy. Be a national currency and not be used as money for international payments. And even more so as a world currency.
Because the use of a national currency as a world currency inevitably leads to the fact that the country that prints these national currency units must sacrifice its economy, its real economy. Because these monetary units can get into international circulation only if the balance of payments of this country is negative.
Actually, it was England in the middle of the 19th century. It was America. By the way, there was very serious opposition to the ratification of the agreements of the Bretton Woods Conference in the US Congress. Many people were well aware that this is where industrial America ends. And it really finally ended under John F. Kennedy. John F. Kennedy is the last one who tried to somehow stop the consequences of the decision of the Bretton Woods Conference.
I would like to clarify. Criticism of the Japanese version of the path for China on the example of the collapse of the “Japanese economic miracle.” Nevertheless, the result of this very period of development of Japan was the high standard of living that was achieved, and the industrialization that they conducted. Despite the fact that after this the pace of development was virtually zero, and accordingly, everything that was connected with this, the Japanese did not seem to suffer much from this socially, no.
I recall that, nevertheless, the highest goal of the economy is man. It is a person who represents the image and likeness of God. The first attribute of God is the creator. To date, the Japanese have ceased to be creators. It’s just a kind of being, well, let’s say so, a person, but with certain truncated properties, qualities, functions. And, of course, I would not want Russia to follow the Japanese path.
You will remember how Rome died. In fact, Rome was dying of satiety. The aristocracy, it was already somewhere around the age of 25-30 so fed up with all the luxuries of life that just further life became meaningless. Theodore Mommsen’s “History of Ancient Rome” describes a scene where at the age of 25 these aristocrats plunged into a bath of wine and opened their veins. That’s how they passed away.
As for the plebs, the plebs used to live by sight and bread. But since, means the extensive development of the Roman Empire ended, then after a while the means for spectacles ran out. And some more time has passed, and for bread. And they just died out, quietly died out. You see, in this sense, the Japanese remind me of these very Romans who quietly passed away. Some in the bathrooms with wine, while others are just out of hunger.