SouthFront: Turkish Operation Coordinated with US and Russia?

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Since October 9, the Turkish Armed Forces and Turkish-backed militants have been developing a ground phase of their operation against Kurdish armed groups in northeastern Syria.

The main Turkish efforts were focused on the towns of Ras al-Ayn and Tell Abyad. Turkey-led forces captured several villages surrounding the towns and event entered Tell Abyad. Nonetheless, the situation in the area remains unstable. It is expected that the Syrian Democratic Forces, a brand used by mainstream media to describe the YPG and the YPJ, will be able to defend fortified urban areas until they are not encircled.

According to pro-Turkish sources, over 100 YPG/YPJ members were neutralized since the start of the operation. This number remains unconfirmed. Pro-Kurdish sources claim that the YPG was able to eliminate several pieces of Turkish military equipment and kill two dozens of Turkish proxies. These claims were also barely confirmed by any evidence. However, at least 17 civilians were injured in a mortar shelling that targeted the Turkish town of Ceylanpınar.

Syria’s state-run news agency SANA reported on October 10 that about 100 US troops had left northeastern Syria through the Semalka border crossing with Iraq. Taking into account that US President Donald Trump called Turkey’s operation a “bad idea”, but distanced himself from Kurdish forces because they did not help the US in World War II, it becomes more and more clear that the Turkish military action in the region is in fact coordinated with the US.

By this move, the Trump administration makes an important step to return confidence of its key ally in the eastern Mediterranean and, at the same time, delivers a blow to efforts of the Obama administration and the CIA that had contributed notable efforts in supporting the Kurdish project in northern Syria.

The possible rapprochement of the US and Turkey over the conflict in Syria will allow Washington to strengthen its campaign to limit influence of Iran and the Assad government in the war-torn country, as well as open additional opportunities for a revanche of the US military industrial complex on the Turkish market. This is a logical step in the framework of the national-oriented policy provided by the Trump administration.

The key question is how deep into Syria the Turkish military is planning to expand its Operation Peace Spring. Currently, pro-Turkish sources speculate about the possible creation of a 30km-deep corridor. If the US allows Turkey and Turkey appears to be capable of reaching this goal, Anakra will boost its role in the conflict even further and gain a wide range of options to influence its possible settlement. In this event, the Assad government will lost all the remaining chances to restore the territorial integrity and the Trump

On October 10, the U.N. Security Council did not agree on a statement condemning Turkey’s military operation in Syria. Following an emergency, closed-door session of the Security Council, ambassadors issued somber assessments of the situation. Five European ambassadors demanded that Turkey cease its military operation against Kurdish armed groups in northeastern Syria.

U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft said Washington does not endorse Turkey’s actions, but did not contribute a lot of efforts to condemnt it.

“Failure to play by the rules, to protect vulnerable populations, failure to guarantee that ISIS cannot exploit these actions to reconstitute, will have consequences,” Craft said.

Russia’s U.N. ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said that the United States and its coalition are conducting “demographic engineering” that led to the conflict. He called for a solution that would “take into account other aspects of the Syrian crisis, not just the Turkish operation.”

“It should speak about the illegal military presence in that country,” Nebenzia said in an apparent reference to the U.S. military presence in Syria.

Reactions of Russia and the United States to Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring demonsrate that Ankara may have in fact pre-agreed it actions with Moscow and Washington.

The Turkish Armed Forces and Turkish-backed militants have been developing a ground phase of the operation against Kurdish armed groups in northeastern Syria since October 9. So far, they have achieved limited results only. Nonetheless, it’s expected that if Turkey continues its operation, it will be able to make some notable gains in the region.

The key question is how deep into Syria the Turkish military is planning to expand its Operation Peace Spring. Currently, pro-Turkish sources speculate about the possible creation of a 30km-deep corridor. In this event, Anakra will boost its role in the conflict even further and gain a wide range of options to influence its possible settlement. More limited gains, for example a 15km-deep corridor will have no such effect to the sitaution in Syria in general and will mostly impact the chances of the Kurdish political leadership to turn their plans to create a semi-independent state within Syria.

From the side of the Trump administration, the current situation is a step to return confidence of its key ally in the eastern Mediterranean and, at the same time and deliver a blow to efforts of the Obama administration and the CIA that had contributed notable efforts in supporting the Kurdish project in northern Syria.

The possible rapprochement of the US and Turkey over the conflict in Syria would theoretically allow Washington to strengthen its campaign to limit influence of Iran and the Assad government in the war-torn country, as well as open additional opportunities for a revanche of the US military industrial complex on the Turkish market. This is a logical step in the framework of the national-oriented policy provided by the Trump administration.

At the same time, some experts say that the Turkish operation in northeastern Syria may be a part of the Turkish-Russian deal over the situation in Greater Idlib, where the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance has recently made notable gains in the area of Khan Shaykhun.


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