Analysis: Erdogan’s Threat to Kick US Off Vital Turkish Airbase

As well as clashing with Erdogan over Russian missiles and far-flung airbases, Washington is at odds with itself over how to handle the wily Turkish leader.

Apart from considering sanctions targeting Ankara’s purchase of S-400 systems, the US Senate passed a resolution on Thursday recognizing the Armenian Genocide, ethnic cleansing purportedly carried out in the early 20th century by Ottoman Turkey which killed roughly 1.5 million people. Ankara’s official position is that the genocide never took place, and any deaths took place as part of the first world war. The move has further enraged Erdogan, who has hinted at a resolution of his own – which would recognize the genocide of indigenous people in the United States.

ALSO ON RT.COMTrump says Turkey very good member of NATO… or will be, while Erdogan challenges alliance to keep up with the timesThese measures were passed without the input of President Trump, who has adopted a more convivial attitude toward Ankara. “I like Turkey,” he said at a NATO summit earlier this month. “And I get along very well with the president. He is a very good member of NATO, or will be.”

Hüseyin Bağci, Professor and Chair of the International Relations department at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, noted that Turkey has received mixed signals from Washington, exacerbating already-strained bilateral relations.

We have to differentiate between American institutions and the American president. [Trump] is very close to [Erdogan]. But the American institutions follow different policies – Congress, as well as the Pentagon and the State Department.

While the tone coming from Washington could be described as mixed, all parties involved clearly understand that “losing” Turkey would not be in America’s best interests, Bağci said. Yet even Trump’s allies in the Republican party signed on to both the genocide resolution and the sanctions bill. Unless Washington can get its story straight, and Congress take a new line, losing Turkey may become a reality.

Ankara’s delicate balancing act

The game of chicken between Washington and Ankara highlights the wildly fluctuating relationship between the two countries, according to Valeria Giannotta, an Italian academic at the University of Turkish Aeronautical Association in Ankara.

“The arm wrestling with Washington is not something new, we have been witnessing this up and down in the bilateral relations for quite a long time,” Giannotta told RT, citing US support for the Syrian Kurds, as well as the Obama administration’s refusal to hand over Erdogan’s arch-enemy, Fetullah Gülen.

ALSO ON RT.COMNATO left Turkey ‘alone in fight against terror’ – defense ministerEven if US troops remain in Incirlik, the two countries seem to be drifting apart on key foreign policy issues. Ankara shares a special relationship with Iran, for example, and views the Islamic Republic as an economic partner – a position which flies in the face of Washington’s unilateral sanctions and calls for regime change.

After inking the S-400 deal with Moscow, Turkey now sees that pursuing its own interests – while trying to appease Washington – may no longer be possible. If the United States isn’t careful, its showdown with Erdogan could end up fracturing a decades-old alliance.