by Ian Greenhalgh
We now know that it was a missile fired by an Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) missile complex that brought down Ukrainian flight PS752. We also know that it was no accident, but rather, a deliberate act.
Whether the missile was fired due to the actions of a human traitor within the IRGC or due to remote hacking into the missile’s control systems is unknown; however, the outcome is the same – nearly 200 dead civilians whose deaths can be blamed on the IRGC.
U.S. Secret Program to Sabotage Iranian Missiles
“The New York Times reported that the Trump White House has accelerated a secret American program to sabotage Iran’s missiles and rockets, according to current and former administration officials.”
The idea behind the shootdown appears to be to undermine the current Iranian leadership by discrediting its main supporter – the IRGC. The current explanations offered by the IRGC for the ‘accidental’ missile launch leave much to be desired.
“Guards’ explanation comes as the world demands full account following Iran’s admission it downed the jet
The Iranian missile operator who shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet opened fire independently because of communications “jamming”, a Revolutionary Guards commander said on Saturday.
The operator had mistaken the Boeing 737 for a “cruise missile” and only had ten seconds to decide whether or not to open fire, Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh, the Guards’ aerospace commander, said in televised remarks.”
There have been some public protests against the Iranian regime recently, largely due to a populous that has suffered greatly due to the US-lead economic sanctions imposed on Iran for several years now.
However, there is a definite Western influence attempting to stir up and amplify the anti-government protests, as revealed by this FARS report on a British Ambassador caught trying to incite an anti-government protest:
“The Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned British Ambassador Robert Macaire after police identified and detained the envoy briefly as he was trying to turn a mourning vigil in front of the Amir Kabir University of Tehran into an anti-government protest.”
The failure of sanctions to achieve regime change in Iran has had a side-effect that is most unpleasant to the US – Iran has been driven into the arms of China as its a savior. Two-thirds of Iranian exports now go to China, principally oil and gas, most of the rest of Iran’s exports go to Russia.
China, as well as becoming Iran’s main trade partner, has become her protector – any move by Trump to declare war on Iran would have to take careful account of China’s reaction.
“The joint maneuvers with China and Russia can be considered as one of the greatest achievements of Iran’s defense diplomacy, sending messages to the West amid US efforts to woo countries into a maritime coalition for patrols in the Persian Gulf.”
Iran is a key partner in China’s One Belt, One Road framework as China aims to recreate the Silk Road as a trans-Asian trading network; already, China is building high-speed rail lines in Iran that will become the Western end of the rail portion of the New Silk Road.
Iran’s neighbor Iraq has also been building ever-closer ties to China, especially in trade and finance, to the extent that both Iran and Iraq are rapidly becoming Chinese client states. Iraq has started exporting 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to China as part of the 20-year oil-for-infrastructure deal.
China is to build factories in both Iran and Iraq as part of a vast program of investments by Chinese companies.
The notion of two Chinese client states dominating the Middle East must induce more than a few headaches in Washington, Tel-Aviv, and Riyadh; therefore the push for regime change in those two states is increasing and the murders of Gen. Soleimani and a planeload of civilians are both parts of that push.
China will no doubt react to this regime change agenda, how they do so remains to be seen.
“Beijing’s ties with Tehran are crucial to its energy and geopolitical strategies, and with Moscow also in the mix, a broader conflagration is a real possibility.
Currently, China’s reaction is to urge both Iran and the US to maintain calm and de-escalate tensions and closely monitor the situation. Beijing does not want war and needs Mideast stability to pursue the Belt and Road Initiative Eurasian integration plan. It has large stakes in Iran’s stability: It is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, China is Iran’s largest trading partner, and Iran is a key geographic node for the BRI.”