by Dr. Abdullah Manaz

For a long time, Turkiye had remained silent to besiege of Peace Monitoring Points which were established within the framework of the Sochi Agreements, by Assad regime.

Encouraged by this silence, Russia and the Assad regime took action to take over Idlib in its entirety. Their primary goal was to capture the M4 and M5 motorways linking Aleppo to Latakia and Damascus. The capture of these highways by the Assad regime meant that Idlib was taken over entirely.

Turkiye was late in reacting to the blockade, and from the beginning of 2020, Syria Idlib and Aleppo highway linking Damascus were seized completely. The Assad regime received air support from Russia and soldier support from Iran and Hezbollah in these operations.

Another important point here; HTS (Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham), which is in a strong position in Idlib, did not show any serious resistance. HTS quickly withdrew its tanks and armored vehicles from the region. This situation can be given three meanings:

  1. First, the HTS is not really a strong organization as it was supposed to be, and it was withdrawn in order not to disappear completely.
  2. Second, according to many rumors, HTS is partially receiving support from the United States and has been withdrawn by the United States. The aim of the USA was to confront Turkiye and Russia.
  3. A third possibility is not too far away. Russian Intelligence Staff of Caucasian origin also has an impact on the HTS. They continue to exist to justify Russia’s intervention in the region, but they do not really fight. A very important part of Idlib and Aleppo were lost in previous years due to the withdrawal of HTS. So, in a sense, Dais Terrorist Organization transferred the fields it had to PKK Terrorist Organization with show wars. Also, HTS handed over its fields to Russia and the Assad regime over time.

In fact, there are two opposition groups in Idlib who are really struggling: the first is the Syrian National Army. The organization is supported by Turkey and It is considered as an official military wing of the Syrian opposition. Perhaps the other most influential armed group in the Idlib region is Uyghur Warriors. This group stopped all the attacks of Russia from Latakia to Turkmen Mountain. Despite the heavy air attacks, Uyghur Warriors did not put the pro-Russian groups and the most important Mechanized Union of the Syrian regime into Idlib.

Let’s talk about the main point: It seems that Turkiye will not take a back step about Idlib. In fact, in the last months, the silence of Turkiye had created a huge disappointment among the supporters of Turkey in the Arab world as well. We haven’t actually written so far, but enemies and some friends of Turkiye in the Arab World had been likened Turkiye to Armed Straw Man in  Idlib. If Turkiye does not erase that image, it will lose a great reputation in the region This situation will also affect Turkish operations of Afrin, ElBab and east of Euphrates in the future.

At this point, Turkey wants to pull the Syrian Regime to the old limits in Idlib. It has completed all his military preparations in this regard. The only problem is Russia’s Air Defense System and Powers in the region. Neither Iran nor the Assad regime can stand against Syrian Opponents without Russian support.

So it will be Turkiye needs strong air support for Its Idlib operation. If it does this itself, he is likely to give some casualties. Probably, this support seems to be available from the United States in recent talks. Although NATO countries such as France and Germany, not look at it hot the military help, Britain and the United States are seriously considering to give military support to Turkiye. Because of the Syrian Regime is weakened, both Britain and the USA will relax more in southern Syria and regain their former allies.

Despite all this, will Russia maintain its obstinate? It’s a little difficult. There is a lot to lose in the region. Things can be reversed not only in Syria, but also in the Black Sea, Eastern Europe, and Libya. Putin is not considering taking this risk, but some Israeli-backed Russian Oligarchs in the Kremlin are not considering retreating.

We will see the situation together.

However, it is certain that; If Turkey performs its Idlib operation with air support of the Coalition, Russia will lose much.


About Author:  Dr. Manaz is a Strategy Expert, Freelance Journalist and Blogger: www.manaz.net. He published 25 books about the Middle East, Terrorism and Islamic Groups.

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11 COMMENTS

  1. i think the last problems with Turkey are artificial. Erdogan was too close to Putin in order to behave now as a renegare. Maybe it is their plan? To show the problems but to solve the tasks. We have so many joint projects with Turkey. Maybe Erdogan works as a bad policeman?

  2. All our export weapons are reduced in quality. I was always so, since the USSR. Backdoors for friend or foe, the height, the range of fire. Approximately if in the Turkey S-400 shooting range is, for example 350 km, in Russia it will be 500. And the devil knows what are other capabilities. All our original weapons work 30% better in in Russia.

  3. “We will see the situation together.
    However, it is certain that; If Turkey perform its Idlib operation with an air support of Coalition, Russia will lose much.”
    In which case it is imperative that Russia immediately and urgently close the Airspace over NW Syria and along entire Turkish Border while simultaneously engaging with Syrian Arab Army (+ Air Force) Hezbollah & Iran-backed Militias in an all-out assault against all “opposition” remaining in Idlib, if necessary driving everyone back to the Turkish Border while opening humanitarian corridors so that Civilians can escape back to their homes in Idlib and beyond. That will still ensure that some 500,000 people remain pressed up against the Turkish Border but the vast majority of these will constitute those who fled Damascus-Eastern Ghouta and other Cities liberated over the course of the past 3-4 years from the slavery inherent in the subjugation by the IS/alQaeda -type Jihadi Savages remaining inside of Syrian Borders along the Idlib Axis. These people are the responsibility of Emperor Erdogan and of US UK France SaudisBarbarians Qatar and Israel. Yes. Israel. Erdogan should be forced to open Ottoman Borders to all of those 500,000 or so savages & their womenfolk & children for their fleeing from Syria. Forever.
    Long Live the Syrian Arab Republic.

    • Good Idea xRsputihish. Force all surviving terrorists back to the Turks who so love them.
      But, then the Turks will use them in another terrorist invasion of Syria for Greater Kazarstan that USA, UK , Saudis & Israelis love so much.