NYT: Don’t be fooled by America’s flattening Curve

Consider Oklahoma and Texas, two states that loosened their restrictions on businesses statewide. Each state made it through an early spike and watched the number of cases fall for weeks. Hiding behind the statewide numbers was a different story. Oklahoma’s early spike was due to a surge of cases in its largest cities. Statewide numbers fell during the recovery — but this was due only to the tail-end of outbreaks around Tulsa and Oklahoma City. When those areas are excluded from the statewide figures, the number of new cases holds steady before rising once again.

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1895

Note: The real numbers come from “resolved cases”

The real death numbers are, at this point, 26 percent of all tested, an aggregate figure but the best we have.  It had been as high as 26% and is coming down slowly.

Problem is, this figure gives us around 450k dead with a low of 360k dead.  After Trump read this on VT (he is a fan), he put out his new 240k figure hoping to jump it up later when people are so grief stricken they won’t notice.

Changing this figure is key, only when it comes down to the fake expected 5% figure will be be where Fauci predicted and that’s not going to happen.

NYTimes: Here is America’s coronavirus curve: the number of newly reported cases each day. The curve has started declining moderately from the peak in early April.

But that’s not the whole story. Separate the region around New York City and the picture becomes far less rosy.

Also remove the regions around Detroit and New Orleans — other cities with large outbreaks in early April — and the national trend is clearer: After a brief plateau, cases in America continue to climb.

During the early days of the pandemic, the public’s attention was fixed on various models, each showing a steep upswing, with cases steadily increasing each day, followed by the tail-end of the curve as cases fade away.

Americans saw, with increasing dread, the predicted upswing in the national numbers. Then, over the last couple of weeks, it stopped.

And yet, forecasters are projecting even more deaths on the horizon. A leaked document obtained by The New York Times projected more than 3,000 people could die each day by the end of May. Another historically conservative model, favored by the Trump administration, just doubled its projected death toll, too.

The tail-end of the national epidemic is not materializing.

“If you just look at the total number of cases, you’re going to miss what’s underneath it,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “It’s not a leveling-off. It’s a painful handoff.”

America’s current “plateau” isn’t good news, he said. Infections from the earliest-hit metropolitan areas are now spawning outbreaks of their own across the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

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2 COMMENTS

  1. The honey bee effect, means that the spread will evolve according to shipping and travel routes. As the cities contract, rural confidence rises, and then it spreads like a pulsating wave of human emotion and reaction.
    What is happening in the US is a model for future study of lack of cohesion within a society. The casual self centered approach to “acceptable numbers” is indicative of a society that has become desensitized to the pain of others. Short sighted priorities and instant gratification are preventing long term strategies such as community gardening programs and alternative financial planning for families. When the stimulus checks arrived, Wal Mart ran out of large screen TVs. Seeds are still plentiful.

  2. “The CDC inspected USAMRIID in June, as part of standard regulations that include scheduled and unscheduled visits, according to previous News-Post reporting. The CDC sent a letter of concern on July 12, followed by a cease and desist letter July 15.”
    —————————————————————
    The outbreak at Greenspring Retirement Community in Springfield began June 30. Sick residents had symptoms such as coughs, fevers and pneumonia.

    Three people have also died, but Dr. Benjamin Schwartz of the Fairfax County Health Department said Wednesday afternoon that those who died were “older” and had complex health problems.

    The outbreak was reported in the assisted living and skilled nursing areas of the community, where about 263 people live. The outbreak has now affected 63 of those residents. At least 20 were taken to a hospital.

    Health officials said last week what was striking about the outbreak was the number of residents impacted and the time of year — summer instead of winter, when flu and respiratory illness usually spread.

    https://www.necn.com/news/national-international/health-officials-to-give-update-after-respiratory-illness-sickens-dozens-at-virginia-retirement-community/204589/

    The county (Fairfax) is home to the headquarters of intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, and National Reconnaissance Office, as well as the National Counterterrorism Center and Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

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