So What Was the Actual Tally of New York City COVID-19 Cases?

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3D print of a spike protein of SARS-CoV-2—also known as 2019-nCoV, the virus that causes COVID-19—in front of a 3D print of a SARS-CoV-2 virus particle. The spike protein (foreground) enables the virus to enter and infect human cells. On the virus model, the virus surface (blue) is covered with spike proteins (red) that enable the virus to enter and infect human cells. For more information, visit NIH

Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020

CDC Early Release

New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) COVID-19 Response Team (View author affiliations)

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since spread worldwide. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic (1). That same day, the first confirmed COVID-19–associated fatality occurred in New York City (NYC). To identify confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths, defined as those occurring in persons with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, on March 13, 2020, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) initiated a daily match between all deaths reported to the DOHMH electronic vital registry system (eVital) (2) and laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19.



Deaths for which COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, or an equivalent term is listed on the death certificate as an immediate, underlying, or contributing cause of death, but that do not have laboratory-confirmation of COVID-19 are classified as probable COVID-19–associated deaths. As of May 2, a total of 13,831 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths, and 5,048 probable COVID-19–associated deaths were recorded in NYC (3). Counting only confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths, however, likely underestimates the number of deaths attributable to the pandemic. The counting of confirmed and probable COVID-19–associated deaths might not include deaths among persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection who did not access diagnostic testing, tested falsely negative, or became infected after testing negative, …read more:

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