Bloomberg: Biden win emerging as push for big stock market rise, high investor confidence

Investors predict quick run to 33,000 DOW under Biden. DOW took its largest jump ever under Obama/Biden

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Bloomberg/Detroit News: With Joe Biden’s lead widening in the polls and President Donald Trump’s campaign sidelined by the virus, investment strategists now say there’s less of a chance for a contested election.

A clear-cut Democrat victory could avoid a long and messy legal battle and provide certainty to markets that have been nervous about election risks, according to strategists from Citigroup Inc. to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The S&P 500 was up about 1% as of 9:32 a.m. in New York, havens including bonds are seeing little demand and the greenback is down.

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden leaves the Queen Theater after a virtual town hall, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020, in Wilmington, Del.

“Polls are shifting from a close election and prolonged uncertainty to more a dominant Biden and clean succession,” said Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank SA. “That is reducing uncertainty and increasing risk appetite.”

Cross-asset traders are taking the newsflow in their stride, despite confusion over the president’s condition and more positive tests from Republican leaders.

A poll released Sunday – taken between Tuesday’s debate and Friday’s news of the president’s infection – found that Biden’s national lead had leaped to 14 points, from 8 before the debate. Biden also has set two records for monthly fundraising in August and September, giving him enough money to dominate Trump on the airwaves.

“Markets seem have lowered the chance of prolonged uncertainty post-November 3,” Barclays Plc strategists Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Shawn Golhar wrote in a note Sunday. “Given that Vice President Biden has been ahead in most polls, this suggests that markets are assigning a bit more probability to his win and a bit less to a close and contested outcome.”

Barclays strategists point to a currency pair like the Aussie dollar versus the yen, a proxy for risk appetite. Its one-month implied volatility dropped to the lowest in weeks after the presidential debate. It has since rebounded, but remains below its 200-day average.

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https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2020/10/05/clear-cut-biden-win-emerging-bull-case-stocks/3622088001/

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Biden was already cleared and stamped by Wall Street before jumping in feet first. It was easy to see.
    The only thing that will save Trump and Netanyahu at this point is a war with Iran. The pretext will be the end of UN arms embargo on Oct 18th and the inability of the Zionist stooges aka Trump administration to extend it.

    Pompe à eau’s piehole hasn’t been spitting anything new on Iran for a few days. Something is wrong.

  2. Still waiting for that “October surprise” that will change everything. Trump is desperate to stay in power. He will do or say anything to stay out of prison. COVID-19 was just a warmup for a much bigger event that will be the “national emergency” he needs to invoke near-dictatorial powers under the USA Patriot Act. May Heaven help us all…

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