Nagorno-Karabakh War is over. What now?

Azerbaijani and Armenian forces halt their operations and keep the positions that they currently control. The sides also agreed on exchange of prisoners of war.

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…from SouthFront.org

Russian peacekeepers are deploying to Nagorno-Karabakh after a permanent ceasefire was established in the region at 00:00 local time on November 10. 1,970 troops, 90 armored personnel carriers and 380 units of other equipment are set to be deployed in the region. The core of the peacekeeping contingent will be units of the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.

According to the statement signed by President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani and Armenian forces halt their operations and keep the positions that they currently control. The sides also agreed on exchange of prisoners of war.

Additionally, Baku and Yerevan agreed on the following steps:

– Armenia should return control of the Kalbajar district to Azerbaijan by November 15, and the Lachin district by December 1, 2020. The 5km-wide Lachin corridor will be kept to ensure the connection of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.  The town of Shusha remains in the hands of Azerbaijan. In addition, by November 20, Armenia should return control of the Agdam district and a part of the Gazakh district to Azerbaijan.

– Russian peacekeepers are deployed for the period of five years with an automatic renewal for an additional five-year period, if none of the parties to the agreement decides to withdraw from it.

– A peacekeeping center will be created to monitor the ceasefire and the implementation of the agreements.

– In the next three years, the sides will agree on a plan for the construction of a new traffic route between Stepanakert and Armenia along the Lachin corridor. When the route is created, the Russian peacekeeping contingent will be re-deployed to protect it.

– Internally displaced persons and refugees will return to Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding areas under the supervision of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

– All economic and transport links in the region will be unblocked. Armenia will take steps to provide transport links between the Azerbaijani mainland and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. This will be overseen and secured by Russian border guards. It is planned to ensure the construction of new transport communications for this purpose.

Azerbaijani President Aliyev also stated that the Turkish side would participate in the peacekeeping mission. Likely, the Turks will be involved in the peacekeeping center.

It should be noted that the ceasefire deal was officially announced late on November 9, just a few hours after Azerbaijan shot down a Russian Mi-24 helicopter, which was escorting a convoy of forces of the 102nd Russian military base near the village of Eraskh inside Armenia.

The foreign ministry as well as the top military and political leadership of Azerbaijan, including the president and defense minister, immediately admitted the incident offering their apologies and proposing compensation to the Russian side.  According to Baku, the helicopter was shot down by mistake in a time of tension and Armenian provocations.

Open military conflicts always set conditions for various incidents involving forces deployed even in a relatively close proximity to the combat zone. The unprecedentedly rapid and straight reaction of Azerbaijan demonstrates that Baku was not interested in an escalation with Russia.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan saw Armenia as a direct participant of the Nagorno-Karabakh war despite attempts of the Armenian leadership to pretend that Azerbaijan was in a war with forces of the self-proclaimed Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Republic only.

On the other hand, the location of the village of Eraskh is far from the actual combat zone. Therefore, there is a small possibility that this was a Turkish-instigated provocation/demonstration of force that should somehow warn and deter Russia from intervening into the Karabakh war on the side of Armenia.

This may be compared with the Turkish posture in Syria, when its warplane shot down a Russian Su-24 warplane in the first months of the Russian military operation there in 2015. Nonetheless, it should be noted that this Turkish demonstration led to little results and the Russian operation there turned the tide of the war to the favor of the allied government of Bashar al-Assad.

Expectedly, the November 10 peace led to a deep political crisis in Armenia, with chaos in the parliament and the strengthening of calls to dismiss Pashinyan from his post. In its own turn, the Pashinyan group fiercely resists this scenario pretending that it was not responsible for the loss in the war.

In fact, the outcome of the current Nagorno-Karabakh war was inevitable taking into account the foreign and internal policy posture of Soros-linked Prime Minister Pashinyan and his inner circle that seized power as a result of the coup in 2018. SouthFront in detail forecasted the war in Nagorno-Karabakh and its outcome in its analysis “Crisis in Armenia and Balance of Power in South Caucasus” released in June 2018.

Currently, the pro-Western Armenian elites will try to keep their power justifying the Karabakh defeat by some “insurmountable obstacles” and the lack of support from Russia. Pro-Western Armenian media has already started blaming Russia for the alleged betrayal.

If the Pashinyan clique somehow remains in power and succeeds in promoting its agenda, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the conflict zone and the full loss of Karabkah for the Armenians will become inevitable within the next 5 years.

About Southfront
South Front: Analysis & Intelligence (SF) is a public analytical project maintained by an independent team of experts from four corners of the earth. SF focuses on international relations and crises working through a number of media platforms. They provide military operations analysis and other important data where crisis points affect tensions between countries and nations. They dig out truth barely covered by states concerned and their mainstream media. SF does not receive any funding from corporations or governments. They are supported by reader donations. *All posts on behalf of South Front are made by Gordon Duff
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2 COMMENTS

  1. The turkish behavior in this case obtained with power of force what them projected to do.
    This is a very dangerous precedent, which can push everyone, everywhere to try to take whatever they wanted to take……
    Everywhere, whoever nation or group of power can think to have a part of land only by force, what we learned in last decade is… what we seen in other times.
    History do not give us something to try to not doing errors of the past, SPECIALLY BECAUSE OFFICIAL HISTORY give us NOTHING RELATED TO THE TRUTH!!!
    We now must know of the worse wars of the past born from american or jewish FALSE FLAGS.
    DEPARTING FROM SANCTIONS GIVEN TO JAPANESE FROM AMERICAN SOLD GOVERNMENTS to centers of power. THE SAME OF WHAT HAPPENS ALSO TODAY!!
    we are assisting to NOBEL PRICE GIVEN TO OBAMA WHICH STARTED TO KILL PEOPLE IN WEDDING PARTIES WITH DRONES!!!!

  2. Pashinyan simply had no choice but to capitulate. Every day, Azerbaijani troops destroyed a large number of soldiers and equipment, occupied villages. The defeat of Karabakh was a matter of time. Yes, Armenia in recent years has ceased to be a friend of Russia and has tried to turn to the West. For their arrogant and hostile behavior, the Russians ceased to sympathize with and help them. And even I, personally, think that Armenia should have been punished. But this is all politics and lyrics. Most importantly, people on both sides will stop dying. I have friends among Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Nice people. Now let the Armenians themselves tear their Pashinyan to pieces for his cunning-ass policy, and draw conclusions. Putin saved them from defeat and shame. Not a single Western country came to help Armenia. And they did it right. The Armenians themselves cowardly fled and hid in Russia. They are cheap restaurant warriors who can only wag their tongues. The Armenian diaspora abroad did not help. Nobody cares about Karabakh. And this carnage had to be stopped. We forced them to peace. Let them think about their bad behavior. And those Armenians who shout that Russia has betrayed them – get out of my country or never come here! Ungrateful fools! You are the authors of your shame. Armenia owes its very existence to the Russians. And I will always put my country’s interests above everything else.

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