…from Vladimir Platov, …for New Eastern Outlook, Moscow, …and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, a research institution for the study of the countries and cultures of Asia and North Africa.

[ Editor’s Note: The poker game between the US, Israel and Iran continues with Israel leading the way, as it has been launching attacks not only on Iranian anti-terrorism forces in Syria, but also inside Iran.

This is not only a dangerous game among the three because of starting a shooting war in the Persian Gulf, but it would have negative consequences around the world, as most countries are busy dealing with the pandemic.

The US usual ‘deterrent’ tactic has been to flood more forces into the Gulf area. These actions double as training operations, using funds budgeted for this. For Iran’s part, it keeps reminding the US that the Soleimani assassination will be responded to, which it has the legal right to execute under the UN charter…responding to a pre-emptive strike.

Many agree that Soleimani was the most effective counterterrorism commander in the Middle Eastern theater, but he was also a diplomat on a confirmed diplomatic mission to Baghdad when Trump pulled the trigger to kill his entire team at the Baghdad airport.

The Iranian ballistic missile counter strike on the big US base in Iraq was the immediate retaliation, where VT sources claimed there were a significant number of KIAs that were blacked out of the media. The key piece of evidence was a transport plane with refrigeration capacity was flown into the region to transport bodies back to the main US base in Germany.

Israel’s attacks on the Iranian nuclear facilities, despite the IAEA certifying Iran’s JCPOA compliance, continues to keep the region on the edge of war, one where there would be no winners.

Iran likes to claim it can ‘end’ Israel, for example with the claim to be able to strike its Dimona nuclear facility. But such claims are only true in that Dimona is in range of an Iranian ballistic missile, as Iran never explains how an easy to shoot down ballistic missile would get through US and Israeli air defenses.

Trump’s current craziness has triggered reports in the US media that the US military command has had to take precautions to his initiating major military operations as a threat to all as part of his psychological operation to retain his presidency. US media has already published the details of how he would be removed if he attempted such.

So while many of us had thought that November would be the watershed moment for ending the Trump presidency, it will now be January. We will all be on edge until US media is showing live video of the Trump caravan leaving the White House and Biden moving in… Jim W. Dean ]

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Blind man’s Bluff game continues in the Persian Gulf

First published … December 27, 2020 

During the run-up to the anniversary of the insidious assassination of Iranian – and after one month had passed since the equally controversial massacre of leading nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh – Israel and the United States, which are ones responsible for this atrocity, are demonstratively increasing their military presence in the Middle East, and doing so in demagogic fashion under the guise of fearing “retaliation from Iran”.

The United States, located both at a considerable distance from Iran and outside the range of its missiles, having provoked this crisis clearly fears only a missile attack on its diplomatic mission in Iraq, as well as other American facilities in the region.

Washington is trying to validate these fears with reports from American intelligence services, according to which pro-Iranian armed formations that can deliver a “retaliatory strike” have allegedly stepped up their activity in Iraq.

However, on December 21 Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh denied these suspicions, which especially resounded in recent statements made by US Secretary of State M. Pompeo about the alleged complicity of pro-Iranian militia in the latest rocket strikes executed on Baghdad’s “Green Zone”. Along with that, Khatibzadeh wrote on Twitter that for Tehran “attacks on diplomatic facilities are unacceptable”.

Washington still dispatched additional warships and a squadron of fighters to the Middle East, and demonstratively conducted a nonstop flight of a B-52 strategic bomber that has the ability to carry nuclear weapons, by doing so intending to “intimidate Tehran”.

In addition, on December 21 a US naval unit entered the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz that included a USS Georgia (SSGN 729) Ohio-class submarine, which carries up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles and is capable of taking on board up to 66 special operations service personnel, as well as two Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers: a USS Port Royal (CG 73) and a USS Philippine Sea (CG 58).

Previously, at the end of November, a USS Nimitz (CVN-68) aircraft carrier was sent off to the Persian Gulf “to help contain the enemy”; this was rationalized by the need “to have additional defensive capabilities in the region in case of any unforeseen circumstances”.

As far as Israel goes, it clearly fears a “retaliation strike” from Iran since, given the Jewish state’s modest size, a successful attack on it could actually terminate its existence.

This is especially true if the strike were to hit the Dimona Nuclear Research Center, which is considered to be the site where Israeli nuclear weapons originated; Tel Aviv neither confirms nor denies that the center exists. Incidentally, Ayatollah Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani already delivered a warning to Israel that “if Iran decides to put up resistance, then one missile strike on the Dimona reactor would be enough”.

It is clear that Iranian missiles will not really be launched at Dimona, since this is fraught with consequences that entail nuclear contamination and destruction not only for Israel, but for Iran and quite a few neighboring countries across the region. And that is why the Iranian media occasionally names another target: the Israeli city of Haifa.

Israel, fearing the hysteria itself that potential military action could unleash, in a speech made by IDF Chief of General Staff Aviv Kochavi on December 21 cautioned Iran not to attack Israel, stating that “the Jewish state will retaliate against any aggression”.

Along with that, A. Kohavi evidently pointedly forgot to mention that it is not Iran, but Israel itself, that has already demonstrated its aggressive stance toward the Islamic Republic to the whole world by organizing and initiating acts of terrorism and assassinations – and not only against nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. After all, this is far from the first time that Iranian scientists and leading representatives from Iranian society have been killed by an Israeli act of terrorism.

For example, in Tehran, five nuclear physicists have been assassinated recently – and this specifically includes Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, the architect of Iran’s ballistic missile program. All this points to the systematic destruction of the best Iranian scientists employed in the defense industry, which is being accomplished by the international community with impunity.

This series of assassinations of prominent Iranian scientists, politicians, and military personnel – who ended up being unacceptable for the United States and Israel – substantiates the suspicions first voiced long ago that Western intelligence services and Israel have adopted the terrorist practice of eliminating key personnel and various prominent figures in those countries with which they are at war; this is done to weaken their defense systems and technological potential.

In addition to the words it speaks to help deter Tehran, Tel Aviv has taken a series of measures to test the combat readiness of its army against any potential foreign attacks, and is active about consulting with Washington – especially with representatives from the Pentagon – about how to work out joint coordination for the two countries to take military action against Iran.

In particular, large-scale, unprecedented exercises came to an end in December, during which the capabilities of the three levels of Israel’s anti-missile defense (ABM) systems to neutralize various air threats were put to the test.

Senior Israel Defense Forces officers, according to the Internet publication Breaking Defense, held “negotiations on coordination work” with their counterparts in the US Central Command (CENTCOM, which includes the Middle East) to bolster cooperation between the armed forces in the two countries “against Iran possibly taking revenge in the region”.

According to this publication, the IDF has reached its highest degree of readiness, in particular with regard to repelling “some of the 140,000 missiles that Iran-backed Hezbollah has in Lebanon, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen”. At the same time, it has been reported that although the Israeli command does not disclose the details about how it prepares for war, its tactical and operational anti-missile defense systems, and long-range missile systems, are still on high alert.

In addition, as reported by The Times of Israel, on December 17, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley arrived in Israel as part of his Middle East tour to discuss the threat that Iran poses to Washington’s allies, including the Jewish state.

As part of preventive measures taken against the armed situation in the region potentially escalating, Israel began to actively spread out its naval fleet around Iran.

An Israeli Navy Dolphin-class (Type 800) submarine carrying cruise missiles on board passed through the Suez Canal, and on December 21 demonstratively surfaced in the Persian Gulf, in the waters that stretch between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Dolphin is a series of German modified diesel-electric submarines that are specially designed for Israel, and which have from 6-10 torpedo tubes.

Besides torpedoes, they are armed with mines and Popeye Turbo SLCM cruise missiles that have a range of up to 1,500 km, and are capable of carrying nuclear charges with a capacity of up to 200 kilotons launched from torpedo tubes. The Israelis regularly keep at least two of their submarines.in the Indian Ocean, in the immediate vicinity of the Persian Gulf.

Today, in the assessments made by numerous experts, there is reason to presume that in January 2021, before Donald Trump leaves the White House, a joint American-Israeli missile strike could be launched against Iran, primarily to neutralize Iran’s air defense systems, as well as its nuclear industry facilities.

However, while ramping up the degree of military tension in the region Tel Aviv and Washington cannot help but clearly see that Iran does not intend to attack either the United States or Israel.

Iran is not in an ideal condition to wage war now, since its economy is seriously undermined by the restrictive measures imposed on its oil sales abroad, as well as by the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, the deficit inflicting its national budget, and the weakening of its national currency.

Yes, military operations “against American and Israeli aggressors” can raise patriotic sentiments in the Islamic Republic for a certain period, but they would quickly drain the Iranian economy and militaristic zeal.

In addition, hoping for a change in the attitude taken toward it after the White House administration changes, for political and economic reasons it would now be clearly disadvantageous for Tehran to carry out any large-scale “retaliatory strike”.

Therefore, the maximum that Tehran is capable of doing today, without causing itself significant damage, is to carry out a special operation against the Israelis involved in the murder of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh – or to inflict a targeted strike on American facilities in the region through its “proxies”.

As for the United States, Israel, and their allies taking military action against Iran right now, it should be kept in mind that the Islamic Republic, despite all its existing economic problems, is a pretty tough nut to crack in terms of its military, and aggression against it would have serious costs. And this cost is obviously unacceptable for either Trump or Netanyahu, who intend to keep pursuing their political careers.

Vladimir Platov, an expert on the Middle East, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

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8 COMMENTS

  1. “as Iran never explains how an easy to shoot down ballistic missile would get through US and Israeli air defenses.” If it is all that easy to shoot down ballistic missiles, why did the US (who were warned that something was coming) not shoot down even one of the missiles that were aimed at Ain Al-Assad Airbase? In any case it seems that Iran has enough cheap missiles to exhaust the Patriot batteries or whatever each target might have. If their missiles were aimed at defence systems with the sort of accuracy shown at Ain Al-Assad, the defenders would only have to fail to intercept one Iranian missile to get a “headache” that might be difficult to recover from.

  2. That has no longer any sens asking WHY ISRAEL IS ONCE MORE PROMOTING NEW WARS , as usual payed by other peoples ?
    Israel is the military extension of the Rothschild’s war-Bank Holding international lobby.. Wars in the 19th century ( US secession War ) , WWI , then WWII were the product of their own great entrprises . In 1849: Gutle Schnaper, 1st Rothschild’s wife dies. Before ,she would nonchalantly state :
    “If my sons did not want wars, there would be none.”… But : the Rotschild breed never stop promoting wars because they always make so huge profits on each one . The General Smedley BUTLER amazed by the killing of so many young Americans for no profit at all , in the secession war , discovered that the only profit of this american/ american holocaust was the Bankers’one !
    The present time is much more dangerous . We see this Rotschild mafia controling almost all of te USARMY , ad the nuke force as well !, We can see them choosing and preparing each war for the US ARMY , paid by te US Citizen and as usual only useful for the Rotschilds (Israel).
    Smart analysis of terrain and political conflicts are now only smoke walls to masq the horrible truth of these Rothschilds industrial slaughters !
    We have to wake up an,d learn again how to read !
    All the tiny causes discussed by the ” specialists “of today’s conflicts are only ridiculous fake pretexts !

  3. Big question to not ever be answered is:
    Did the US and Israel attack Iran government officials and underground nuclear base in city of Qom with biological weapons during height of covid 19 epidemic and panic in Wuhan?
    The previous biological weapon attack in Wuhan was then used as diversion and excuse to cover up the biological weapon attack in Iran.
    The Iranian attack justified in minds of US military and political leaders as retaliation for the two Iranian ballistic middle attacks on the two US airbases in Iraq.
    Second question to never be answered is the blowback and spread of the particularily deadly covid 19 strain used against Iran what is it that caused the particularily deadly pandemic in Europe and the USA?
    Looking at facts, dates and coincidences, plus US and Israel military policy to cover up and never admit to collateral damage of innocents in any conventional or biological war, I would guess this scenario true.

  4. Iran can make life as much hell for US and particularly Israel as they have done to Iran. Even if they may not have Nukes, but they can send these “dirty missiles” for Israel to do target practice over Israel. This of course should only be done if US or Israel go nuclear on Iran. That way, Israel will be showered with depleted Uranium. And, no I don’t feel sorry for these devil worshipers that only want to make Israel the masters and the rest of the world slaves according to their Talmudic laws.

  5. Money is the physical force that sets the whole world in motion. 
    Now Capital Over Accumulation has occured.
    There is more capital than places to invest in with positive return for The Super Rich who have bought up virtually everything. There is stagnation of investment returns and the whole global financial system is on the verge of collapse.
    They need new investment opportunities that yield adequate returns on capital (be it war or vaccines) to clear the blockage and restore the flow.
    Or a Reset.

Comments are closed.