Finally some good news on the Iran Deal?

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Trita Parsi

US-Iran meeting in Vienna signals new hope for JCPOA

Given the deadlock and the disappointing pace of movement in the first weeks of Biden’s term, today’s news that the United States will be participating in next week’s meeting in Vienna between Iran and global partners towards reviving the JCPOA is more than welcome.

Here is why: Privately, White House officials admit that they fumbled the Iran file early on (my words, not theirs). But the message we’re hearing now is that things have changed, and Washington is now moving full speed toward a JCPOA return. We are now seeing the first signs vindicating this narrative.

Over the past weeks, however, mistrust between the two sides has grown. The Iranians have watched in dismay how Biden has messaged that the JCPOA is not a priority, and how coordination with Israel and assuaging hawks in Congress was seemingly tantamount to getting talks started.

This left Tehran with the impression that either Biden wanted to use Trump’s maximum pressure sanctions as a bargaining chip, or that he simply didn’t have the will to pay the price of taking on the opponents of the JCPOA in the United States and the region.

At the same time, the U.S. side saw a continuation of attacks in Iraq, a hardening of Iran’s public position and escalatory nuclear moves, and speculated that perhaps the window had already closed, and that Tehran doesn’t want a return until after its Presidential elections.

For the last few weeks, the two sides have indirectly exchanged proposals on how to break the deadlock. The U.S. proposals that have been mentioned in the media have all been lowballing the Iranians, which appears to have made matters worse. Driving a hard bargain under these circumstances only further depletes trust and is counterproductive to the intermediate objective — starting direct talks. Indeed, from the outset, it was a mistake to turn what should have been a coordination into a negotiation.

So why the breakthrough now? I suspect Washington has wisely, behind the scenes, put forward a more robust proposal. No more lowballs. I doubt that when Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov spoke of “positive movements” on the U.S. side, he was referring to the lowball proposals.

Nor would Iran — given its political circumstances — likely agree to this meeting next week unless something more robust was on the table. Moreover, U.S. officials have told the New York Times that they will “not seek to retain some sanctions for leverage” a la Trump.

This would jive with the most important breakthrough in the history of the JCPOA — the one secured in Oman in March 2013. I detail this here in “Losing an Enemy.” This was where the real JCPOA talks began, and it was secured by the United States putting acceptance of enrichment in Iran on the table.

But the US managed to keep that secret for years. In fact, most journalists covering the issue have yet to fully acknowledge this, and have instead explained the breakthrough as a result of the sanctions squeeze on Iran.  It was a clever move by Washington to get real talks started, but also to avoid the backlash in D.C. over the fact that a major concession had been given to Iran. I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar happened here, but obviously on a much smaller scale.

But this is just the beginning of the process. As the Russian ambassador in Vienna said, “The impression is that we are on the right track but the way ahead will not be easy and will require intensive efforts.”

The question is what the choreography will look like now. The U.S. side prefers several coordinated steps that build to the final goal of full compliance-for-compliance. The Iranians prefer a quick, one-step process that immediately cuts to the chase. There are arguments for both approaches. But Tehran is in a bit more of a time crunch because of its elections. A dragged out process— just see how long it has taken to just get this meeting! —  will make it highly vulnerable to attacks by JCPOA opponents.

This is true on both sides, but mindful of the Iranian elections, it is particularly vulnerable to politicization in Iran. It is frankly better for the United States, in my humble opinion, that the process is quick, as the Iranian elections may cause a lot of unhelpful political posturing by Tehran.

The best thing is to get a quick choreography that binds both sides to full compliance, even though the steps may simply be binding decisions to do things within the next few weeks. The actual steps may be taken later, but the binding decision to take them will be made now.

That way, the JCPOA will be resurrected and protected before the Iranian elections — and not subject to the outcome of the elections. This clearly lies in the national interest of the United States —  as JoeBiden himself has made clear numerous times.

Trita Parsi is the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute and author of Losing an Enemy – Obama, Iran, and the Triumph of Diplomacy.

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8 COMMENTS

  1. I don’t expect guns and bullets guys to diversify, but after 40 years in DoD procurement I am never surprised who pops up with a new service division. This plum will be hard to resist and Congress will control everything which means the guys in their districts will be in front. It will be Bechtel or KBR or Parsons probably as prime or maybe a consortium with some IT giants. In any case, the top primes will get a percentage of everything and that will be billions. Chaney was a major force in assuring that all services will be contracted out which was not the case with FDR and Eisenhower projects. The procurement regs that are written in Congress will be amended for this special effort so that audit insight will be minimized. Sanders can stand on his head, and the CBO is a joke. The irony of all this is that Biden is starting a program that will enrich large companies on the GOP side. Many small companies will do the grunt work as subs and create jobs. But billions will be paid for useless management. The GOP pols are pretending to oppose this for their voters but they know a bonanza when they see it. Stay tuned.

  2. Its very hard not to trust the opinion of the VT editors. 9 out of 10 times, they are right. So I accept this as a good Easter news. Happy Easter to all US Veterans, especially Jim, Gordon and Jonas.

  3. Netanyahu will have to make a few calls. 9/11 redo, coming right up, folks, this time blamed on Iran. That’s how we’re driven into wars we have no business being in, at least in the 21st Century.

    • Bingo. Lose-lose scenario for the US right now. If we completely walked away from the Middle East, what would happen? Besides the MICC imploding.

    • MIC’s excursions in the Levant and other places which have no real accountability will be underfunded for once but the Biden’s domestic infrastructure bill will be using many military contracting companies only with much better oversight.
      This administration is giving everyone real hope. All they have to do is to chop off a few dinosaur charlatans aka republicans to get things done in less than four years.

    • Yup. I can see Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics building roads and bridges. Those turds have been living on cost reimbursement contracts forever. More oversight means they work harder to find ways.to overrun. Should all be small business set-asides. And no newly formed disadvantaged ones either. The US treasury is a cash cow for these guys.

    • Lol ! If you only knew which companies built Dubai after the crash of 2009, after the Iraq war funding, and made the size of that Disney Land hundred fold, you wouldn’t be saying this.
      True that cost overrun will be everywhere on the projects but “By then” the no bid contracts replacing the huge war budget that Cheney et al were concocting and never ended will have domestic oversight under an administration which has Sanders watching over the Congressional Budget Office.