Professional opinion on the special operation in Ukraine

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by Alexander Dubrovsky – Russia

As promised, I am not making anything more up about the special operation in Ukraine myself, leaving the word to the professionals.

The source is unknown to me, it came via Watsapu. It is published without cuts and without editing, only some places highlighted by me.

“The 12th day of the war…

It’s hard for everyone. Our guys are dying. Citizens of Ukraine are dying. But it is most difficult for the military, both in the reserves and in Russia and Ukraine, who have been through “hot” conflicts. I grit my teeth with helplessness, I am personally not sure if I would have been able to fulfill the Commander-in-Chief’s order if I had been in the ranks today. To keep civilian casualties to a minimum is understandable, we are one people. But how to try not to cause critical damage to the AFU – I have little idea within the tactics of my own unit.

I categorically object to making public the number of combat casualties before the operation has entered its final phase. This is a gift for someone else’s information war, a trump card in the hands of the enemy, dispelling false information among outspoken alarmists inside the country: “they lie, hide everything, underestimate”, “no war”, “mothers, do not let your sons go”, “how I want peace”, “how much blood can be shed”…

You can and you should. Soldiers die, heroes. Soldiers, heroes, who came to the army not to polish paving stones with their soles. But to defend their homeland. Even at the cost of their own lives. It was a mistake of the General Staff. People should clearly understand the aims of the operation, its necessity, inevitability of casualties. And not the current price.
A subjective opinion.
Let’s try to make sense of the situation without hysterics and insults.
It sounds cruel, but this is the harsh reality of war. Let us wipe away our own and women’s tears after the Victory, let us worship each widow, mother, bride, and sister for the feat of their men.
The first phase of the operation…
We underestimated the enemy in the strength of information, ideological and psychological repulse, they were waiting for us. Literally in the first day with one click of American bloody fingers – we deprived the support of civilians and the AFU units that were ready to become neutral. Millions of dollars, thousands of i-teachers, global media corporations cut off Ukraine from any objective information, stinking up our country.

And our main losses were in the first three days. Now they will be rapidly reduced, the Russian army is no longer conducting a peacekeeping and humanitarian operation similar to the Crimean operation. The fighters have received other orders, they are drawn in, angry, collected, and their hopes for active support of civilians and the thinking of the AFU units are dashed.

There are few flowers and caravans, people are crushed by propaganda and lies, intimidated into insanity by the Nazis. They missed another important point in the calculations – almost 600,000 Ukrainians have passed through the ATO zone in Donbass since 2014, and today they have joined the territorial defenses everywhere, and many people have something to fear. Especially on the wave of fakes about shootings without trial of Atoshchiki.

Can you imagine what the Nazis put into their heads during their year of service there, gave them the opportunity to shoot at populated areas with impunity, to mock the civilians there. So, the calculation on the help of the locals and the AFU did not work, the cancer in Ukrainian society is simply monstrous. But… We’ll cure it.

If you explain our tactical techniques of the first twenty-four hours… it is a creatively reworked “reconnaissance battle” of the Great Patriotic War. Only with deep and swift penetration into Nazi-occupied territory. We provoked enemy activity by tactical groups, deliberately pulling AFU units and the National Guard from their locations. Withstanding in small numbers terrible counterattacks by tanks and armored vehicles, outnumbering motorized infantry.

Sometimes it was impossible to suppress Grad missiles, artillery and mortars hidden in residential areas. It was impossible to clear urban areas methodically in combat formation, calling in supporting fire, attack helicopters, sappers, and flamethrowers, or using tanks to destroy machine gun emplacements in houses and social infrastructure facilities.

This is a war unfamiliar to us veterans. Especially when the sky is under full control, airfields are full of attack planes and bombers, operational-tactical missile systems are in service, there is a lot of heavy artillery. It is now clear even to civilians: the correct name for what is happening is really a “special military operation on denazification. And the demilitarization of Nezalezhnaya was completed at the end of the third day.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine, as a unified, manageable, and effective structure, had ceased to exist. Today there are dozens of groups of varying numbers isolated from one another, hiding in towns and villages. There is no centralized supply, no air support, no reinforcements. They are unable to act within the framework of any plans of the Ukrainian General Staff. Just crowds of armed men with orders to stand to the death.

The main “North” and “East” groups, the 22 brigades that had been given the honorable duty of drowning Donbass in blood in early March, were decapitated and deprived of command. We beat them to it by a week or two by starting our own special operation. Now 150,000 people (along with the National Security Forces) are marinating in “cauldrons,” cut off from each other. For a second – this was done by smaller Russian forces… and in five days.

There is no organized resistance in other operational directions. Separate units of the AFU, National Security Forces, and sabotage groups. Each operates at its own discretion, with varying degrees of activity. There is no possibility to move in columns, regroup, replenish ammunition, fuel and lubricants and equipment even in local depots, everything is systematically destroyed by high-precision weapons and aviation.

In a week or two, 80% of the AFU will be completely deprived of ammunition, fuel, medicines and food. Mentally and physically exhausted, without a unified command, goals and objectives. This is a terrible thing for an army, dejection and decay. Especially for the Ukrainian army, which is sustained by fear, propped up by the Bandera barrier troops. Soldiers fear for the fate of their families on the home front.

The second phase of the operation…

Recognizable, the Syrian scenario. Neutral or terrorist-fearing population, among which it is almost impossible to identify fighters. The Russian Army does not take such settlements, but encircles towns with Bandera National Forces. Soon we will see buses and “take-out tours” in the direction of Zapadenshchina. How they get baked without any support and help from outside.

Elsewhere in the city, they take a semi-enclave, thereby inviting defenders to leave the territory on their own. No organized military columns, heavy equipment, this stuff is destroyed. By private order, dear ones. Yes, the danger of a large number of sabotage groups is created, but strategically the three main tasks of the special operation are solved: minimizing casualties among civilians and infrastructure, our units and the Ukrainian army.

It is too luxurious a gift for Washington and the EuroReich to slaughter the Russian and Ukrainian militaries against each other with relish. The Bandera “partisan units” will get on their nerves, but the command’s idea is not bad. They will become legal prey for the counter-terrorist units, the military police and Ramzan Kadyrov’s men from the National Guard. They don’t take terrorists prisoner, they take them out… where they’re caught. Denazification in the truest sense of the word.

An even sadder fate awaits the numerous EuroReich mercenaries, from which not military units (once) but sabotage and tactical groups are formed. Our General Staff has already stated that it does not consider them combatants with all the ensuing consequences, no conventions on prisoners of war do not work here. I am sure these “soldiers of fortune” will be hunted in a special, brutal and targeted way. Poor bastards…

The third stage of the operation.

I will not tell you in detail how and where the combat operations are unfolding, there is enough information in the public domain from professional experts. But everything is happening strictly according to the plans, we have not even begun to transfer reserves, and they are still standing in columns in the border areas. Losses are not just tolerable (from a military statistical point of view) – insignificant. Not a single unit is withdrawn for re-forming or rest, so it means it is fully combat-ready.

Look at the map, calculate the distances, the marches, the constant fighting, regrouping, maneuvering over dozens of kilometers, and remember – our guys are up against the third largest army in Europe and the prohibitively motivated Nazi formations. We need to bring up the rear, to take elementary rest, to service the equipment, to perform a bunch of previously unintended actions.

There is no need to chase anyone away, to demand more decisive actions, Victory Flags over Mariupol, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and even less so – useless Kiev with three million panic-stricken, propaganda-pumped citizens. The objectives of the operation, strategy and tactics are a whole new page in the art of war; the rush is unacceptable.
A classmate of mine at the academy yesterday asked in “private”:

1. Why isn’t the military aid to Ukraine being destroyed right at the airport of arrival?
2. Why is it even possible for NATO transports to visit Ukrainian airspace?
3. Do you have a feeling that our diplomats are beginning to drain the army’s efforts…? All sorts of bad thoughts wander in my head.

Regarding point number three. There will be no leakage, all the goals of the special operation will be fulfilled. This is being categorically repeated every day by Lavrov, who has grown old, and yesterday it was voiced by VVP. French “peacekeeper” Macron with his mediation washed his face. And Medinsky in Belovezhskaya Pushcha is elaborately mocking the metrosexuals from the Ukrainian delegation. There is no one to talk to there.

Look at the brave Commander-in-Chief Ze, how he looks. A complete breakdown of personality on drugs. The Americans and their own Nazis won’t let him negotiate, they will kill him. The task is different – to completely ruin the country, to drown it in chaos, so no one gets you.

The special operation does not stop, there will be no more delays. Every day of delay categorically harms us, unplanned diplomatic, political, economic and military problems arise. Only swiftness and onslaught, before the situation in the West begins to be assessed with a cold head.
As for flying transports with NATO insignia to deliver weapons. This is impossible, the skies over Nezalezhnaya and southern Russia are closed to flights. They will be airlifted from Poland. And we will not destroy such “humanitarian aid” convoys. Why, you may ask? Better ask another question – who exactly is in power in Ukraine?

The outright Nazis. Who have taken millions of civilians hostage in cities without humanitarian corridors, who have driven frightened people into basements and subway stations. By poisoning them with lies about “Russian atrocities”, mass shootings, executions, violence, carpet bombings. Placing civilians with machine guns near strategic control and command facilities. Like in Kiev outside the SSU building adjacent to Sofia Kyivska.

Zelensky’s handlers and the Bandera battalions are creating a humanitarian disaster, leaving towns and villages in Donbas to blow up everything: bridges, substations, pumping stations. Remember the liberation of Ukraine and 1945, the agony of the Third Reich. A quote from a demoniac, framed in orders to destroy the entire infrastructure of Germany: “if the war is lost, it makes absolutely no difference that the people will die.

It is useful to know history in order to predict Nazi behavior. It is such an ideology, social norms of life, worldview.

So, military columns will not be destroyed for three reasons. First, they are trophies.
Second, weapons will not reach the combat-ready units of the AFU and the National Guard of the southeast – the addressees are in the “kettles. Third, everything will be transported by regular civilian trucks, the rear transport of AFU units is with their units, or destroyed in vehicle fleets.

Track down and hit container trucks? Yes, we can. Just keep in mind – all roads to border checkpoints with “kind-hearted Europe” are jammed with convoys of vehicles of fleeing Ukrainians for a good hundred kilometers, the traffic there is terrible. There are women and children in the cars. And Poland and Hungary have not moved the checkpoints deep into their territories, have not increased the capacity of the checkpoints with additional personnel.

In other words, Ukrainian border guards and their “colleagues” keep people waiting to cross the border for 24 hours a day. Shall I go on describing the scenario that Kiev and Washington are counting on? Or can you think for yourself what kind of television picture the entire “civilized world” is expecting? They dream that the bloodthirsty Russians will start bombing civilian cars… Or the railroad.

But I have little faith in such scenarios, it is clear to everyone – Ukraine is completely lost, any amount of weapons will not help it anymore. But some part is sure to be delivered to Lviv, to get the mercenaries with the ideological Banderaites. And then, in groups, they will go to commit acts of sabotage, to intimidate local administrations throughout the country, to try to disrupt our communications and supply lines.

But this is another special operation, a police operation. Which the Ukrainians themselves can carry out with a minimum of Russian help, once they get over the shock. This is their land, they have to live here. If you proclaim a reward of five thousand dollars for an anonymous denunciation – one day later all the saboteurs and partisans will be gone. It’s a country like that.

But we’ll make it sooner…

I want to reassure you, it’s the twelfth day our guys are operating in a different operational and tactical reality, casualties will be rapidly decreasing. If before there was a strict order not to cause even hypothetical harm to civilians and civilian objects… today it has been changed. With one phrase: “not to the detriment of the personnel of the units. As a military man I am completely satisfied: now the humanitarian jokes are over, the real work will begin.

If you fire at a column, you get a response on the whole military-technical menu. Orders like this only work that way. Civilian casualties? Yes, some casualties are inevitable, but not through our fault. We don’t storm cities according to the Charters, we bypass them or operate surgically with special forces, as in Kharkov. Using a previously unknown tactic of urban combat by night maneuvering groups. We will talk about this separately.

Let the Ukrainians marinate in the cities themselves, digesting the Banderites and the “territorial battalions” duped by Nazi propaganda. They can no longer cope with the looters, what kind of “reflection of aggression” is that? This is not our problem now, no matter how harsh the words may sound.
The final turning point will come after the mopping up of Kharkov, the blockade or capture of Odessa. All the heroic self-defense forces of the other settlements will dissipate on their own; clear signs of a humanitarian disaster are already evident in the encircled cities. The morass, when it is thoroughly false, subsides most quickly in darkness, refreshing coolness, and on an empty stomach.

The population is not mentally prepared to stand to the last, Ukrainian social networks are already full of messages from places where local administrations remained after the arrival of the Russian Army, food supplies are uninterrupted, street lights are on, and local police are controlling the streets. With each passing day, the fake hysteria will subside, and the drugged-out minds will think: What’s next?

Will the encircled Bandera fighters begin to brutalize in their powerless rage? Well, this cross the Ukrainians also have to bear on their own. Of course, we will try to do everything we can to save the children and the elderly. But Putin won’t allow us to take sensitive losses, this is not that kind of war.

We are not the ones who raised and nurtured the fiend from hell, who allowed them to seize power and hostage an entire people. We are not the ones who armed and sent them to kill the Donbass and taught them to hate Russians. Criminal indifference and assistance is also a punishable act. Not by us, by life itself.” P.S.

I agree that in places it is very cynical, but it is only from the point of view of a civilian. Any hostilities are a different reality…

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