Ukraine: One Month of War

DISCLOSURE: Sourced from Russian government funded media

ALERT:  Sourced from Russian State-Controlled Media

During a month of military operations in Ukraine, the Russian Army took control of a significant part of the country and apparently completed the first stage of the operation. The strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces and precision-guided missiles have caused devastating damage to the military infrastructure of Ukraine.

At the same time, assessments of the Russian successes vary. Some military analytical structures and experts say that the warring sides faced a stalemate. For its part, Ukrainian propaganda trumpets the Russian defeat. In fact, in 30 days of the war, the Russians took control of thousands of kilometers of Ukrainian territory. No AFU counterattack has brought success. The most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are either in full or in the partial encirclement. Russian troops are stationed on the outskirts of the capital.

The most important area of hostilities on March 24 is the half-million coastal city in the south-east of the country, Mariupol, where the remnants of the encircled 14 thousandth group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to resist.
The Ministries of Defense of Russia and the DPR state that 70 percent of the city is under the control of allied forces. More than half of the AFU grouping in the city was destroyed.

Mariupol is notorious for being a permanent base of the AFU far-right Nazi unit, the Azov Regiment. The soldiers of the Azov regiment were repeatedly convicted of crimes against the local population, including torture, mass shootings, and robberies. There were reports that the Azov fighters are being given the last chance to lay down their arms and starting from March 24, the DPR units conducting a sweep of the city will stop taking prisoners.

In the East of Ukraine, the territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, where the self-proclaimed republics of the DPR and the LPR had been previously created, are now almost under the control of the divisions of the Russian Federation, the DPR and the LPR.
In the Donbas region, the most difficult battlefields are the villages of Maryinka, Avdiivka, and Peski, which are located in the northwest of Donetsk.

The main forces of the LPR are involved in the operation to encircle the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk region. At the same time, they continue their offensive in the direction of Popasnaya, Bakhmut, and Soledar with the aim of flanking the AFU grouping in Severodonetsk from the south and the southwest.

In turn, Russian units are advancing in the area of Izyum in the direction of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in order to cover the entire AFU grouping in the region. Today fighting is going on in the village of Kamenka.  Breaking through the  Ukrainian defense in this area will lead to a rush of Russian troops into the operational depth of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine up to 25-30 km to the south and southeast.

In the Kiev area, Russian troops are conducting tactical-level operations in order to deplete the AFU military potential in the region. Defeat in the battle for Kiev would be a decisive blow for the entire Ukrainian statehood. Therefore, the AFU command is forced to keep troops there and attempt counterattacks, which lead to heavy losses.

Similar Russian tactics are used in the southwest of Ukraine, in the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions. The presence of Russian ground forces in the immediate vicinity of Nikolaev does not allow the AFU to transfer forces and assets to other more important sectors of the front. The presence of the Russian fleet and the amphibious group in the immediate vicinity of the shores of Odessa also limits the maneuverability of the Ukrainian Army both tactically and strategically.

In the area of the second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, Russian units adhere to similar tactics. Attempts to storm the city are not being carried out. At the same time, intensive artillery shelling and airstrikes continue on AFU bases and military infrastructure.

Dozens of missile strikes are carried out daily on key objects of Ukraine’s military infrastructure in the rear regions.

The scale of the current fighting in Ukraine surpasses any conflict Europe has seen since the end of World War II. The successes of the warring sides and the timing of the conflict are quite difficult to assess.. However, it seems that time is on the side of the Russians.

Ukraine’s economy is destroyed.  Agricultural planting in large areas has been disrupted. The actions of the EU and NATO countries are exacerbating the ongoing energy and food crisis.  By contrast, the Russian economy has a margin of safety. The sanctions imposed against Russia have already led to an excess of energy resources and food on the Russian market. Despite the fall of the ruble against the dollar by more than 20 percent in a month, gasoline prices have not increased, and prices for basic foodstuffs have returned to pre-war levels after a short period of high demand.