FULL DISCLOSURE: Sourced from Russian State-Controlled Media
“Emergency military assistance” of the West to Ukraine has all the signs not so much of a military as of a psychological campaign
Fondsk.ru: A month ago, we analyzed the possible consequences of the transfer to the Kiev regime of the S-300PMU anti-aircraft missile systems, the division of which was at that moment in service with the Slovak air defense forces.
The assessments made at that time of the military prospects of this American initiative were very impartial to its Washington authors.
“And even if, more than expected, this happens under pressure from the United States (after all, the Pentagon chief is in a hurry to Slovakia!), The results of the undertaking will be miserable. And here’s why:
1. The deployment of S-300 air defense systems hypothetically transferred by Slovakia to Ukraine with a probability close to 100 percent will end up the same as in the case of divisions of similar Ukrainian air defense systems already destroyed by Russian missile strikes. 90% of them have already ceased to exist;
2. The inevitability of such an outcome is beyond doubt, given the fact that the S-300PMU division (12 launchers, 48 missiles per salvo) in service with Slovakia has been in service for more than 30 years. And it is obsolete not only in terms of its tactical and technical data, but also due to the extreme dilapidation of the material part. It got to the point that due to the lack of anti-aircraft missiles 5V55R,
Today we can state that this forecast has been fully confirmed. From the message of the Russian Ministry of Defense on April 11:
“On Sunday, April 10, Caliber high-precision sea-based missiles on the southern outskirts of the city of Dnepropetrovsk destroyed equipment of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile division, hidden in the hangar, delivered to the Kiev regime of one of the European countries. Four S-300 launchers and up to 25 personnel of the Ukrainian armed forces were hit, among other things .
Since no other European countries have so far supplied Ukraine with S-300 systems, it is quite obvious that we are talking about the Slovak air defense division.
By the way, the same article also made a generalizing conclusion about what this would lead to:
1. The United States will not make any progress in the military equipment of Kiev, even if its harassment of Slovakia regarding the S-300 air defense system is successful.
2. The Ukrainian regime will not be able, for these reasons, to really increase its air defense potential and create a threat to the Russian Aerospace Forces. 3. Slovakia will be the scapegoat. It will finally ruin its relations with the Russian Federation, and in the future, it may become a target for Russian missiles.”
The American military-political leadership had no illusions about the military impact of their plan. Most likely, the Pentagon was well aware of the inevitability of precisely the outcome that was announced on April 11 by the Russian Defense Ministry.
And then a natural question arises: why do they do this if they know that the result will be close to zero? Moreover, the noisy campaign of “emergency assistance” to Ukraine is not limited to one adventure with the Slovak S-300s. No less defiantly was sent to the East echelon with Czech tanks and armored personnel carriers. Slovakia is now under pressure to donate its MiG-29 fighter jets and Zuzana self-propelled guns to Ukraine. The noisy advertised delivery of certain anti-ship systems to Kiev is on the way. They hint, in particular, at the British A / U / RGM-84D2 Harpoon coastal missile system.
These attempts to urgently rearm Ukraine also raise legitimate questions. Take the same British anti-ship system. This is a rather complex and expensive type of weapon that requires long-term training of the combat crew, perhaps even more than one year. Will there be time for this? Will Kyiv still have control over access to the sea by then? This is unknown.
Not to mention the fact that the entire sea coast of Ukraine, including the ways of transporting military equipment to the place of combat use, is being shot through by Russian aviation and missile systems from the territory of Crimea. Therefore, the deliberately noisy campaign of “emergency assistance” to Ukraine looks suspicious from a military point of view. Serious military affairs are not done that way. Too clearly it resembles a psychological special operation.
And what then is the point of this fuss? We believe that we will not find the correct answer to this question in a purely military plane. This could be a serious image challenge facing the West.
After the loss of American positions in Afghanistan, which took place in the scenery of a catastrophe, another similar defeat with the surrender of a strategic foothold could have fatal consequences for the West. The world will be convinced that the former hegemon is completely incapacitated. And this is much worse for the United States than the physical loss of a single Ukraine.
And since its loss by the West is very likely, Anglo-Saxon strategists have to think about neutralizing the emerging threats in terms of minimizing the reputational damage that threatens the West if the Afghan scenario repeats on an even larger scale.
This, in our opinion, is the main motivation for the demonstrative campaign of military assistance to Ukraine that is gaining momentum under the unspoken motto “We did everything we could, and no one has the right to demand more from us!”. To do more is to start a third world war for the survival of the Kiev regime. No one in the world will condemn the West if it stops at the point of no return.
Therefore, in order to save face and influence, the West now needs to show that it really did everything it could to “save Ukraine.” Although it is already clear that in a military sense this will not help Kiev, these are the rules of the game, in which trains with military equipment going to the East, where it will be guaranteed to be destroyed, play the role of a kind of indulgence, which the West provides for itself in the absence of the opportunity to achieve a more significant result.