Introduction by Fabio Giuseppe Carlo Carisio

It is truly worrying that a military news media very close to the Pentagon signals the risk that the weapons supplied by the US to Ukraine could end up in the wrong hands.

This topic has been repeatedly flagged by counter-information media such as Gospa News, Veterans Today, and The Intel Drop, but now it’s coming to a showdown.

“Western Weapons could end up in Criminals Hands”. Interpol issues Ukrainian Warning

Even Defense One, a portal specialized in international geolithic analyzes in the military field but always very complacent with the Pentagon, has renewed the alarm.

It is very strange that this comes from a network that is absolutely close to NATO’s positions on the war in Ukraine. This can mean two things.

Or the American military environment has grown tired of sustaining a war in Ukraine unleashed by NATO and already lost against Russia, if the Third World War is not to be triggered as announced by a UK general.

WEAPONS LOBBY – 6. Third World War Warnings! UK, Nato, US & Zelensky threaten Russia and China

Or it is a code warning for intelligence experts aimed at justifying large terrorist actions in Europe, thanks to weapons from overseas. In both cases, the utmost attention must be paid.

Here is the article. All links to previous Gospa News reportages have been added afterwards.


The Risks of US Military Assistance to Ukraine

The donated weapons pouring into Ukraine—more than $6.1 billion so far from the U.S. alone—have been welcomed by Kyiv, but they also carry a variety of potential national security and strategic consequences. Defense planners, lawmakers, and the public should develop safeguards to keep these weapons from feeding future conflict, violence, and instability.

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The most serious and talked-about risk is provoking a direct response from Moscow. President Biden insists that escalation risks are being carefully measured, yet Vladimir Putin has attempted to target Western supply lines to Kyiv, conducted strikes dangerously close to the borders of NATO member states, and taken to repeatedly reminding the world about Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

Reassurances aside, conflict escalation is perilously hard to predict, frequently occurs beyond the control of the powers involved, and often defies the assumptions and cold logic justifying a given course of action. Amid increasing concerns for Putin’s state of mind, the risk calculus taking place in Washington could easily be off.

In the longer term, managing the tens of thousands of small arms, heavy weapons, and other military hardware transferred to Ukraine since the invasion will pose a security challenge long after the guns fall silent. The pace and scale of the transfers, notwithstanding the clear frontline needs, are likely stretching Ukraine’s absorptive capacity to its limits, and possibly beyond, creating severe risks that equipment could be lost or find its way to illicit markets.

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Ukraine’s long history as a nexus of the illicit arms trade is not reassuring. After the Cold War, criminal entrepreneurs capitalized on massive Soviet-era stockpiles left behind in Ukraine and, by some estimates, made away with $32 billionin military equipment between 1992 and 1998. Those weapons made their way to battlefields in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. While the new influx of Western arms may satisfy narrow U.S. legal requirements intended to assure the appropriate stewardship and security of U.S. arms, conventional end-use monitoring procedures—insufficient under the most stable of circumstances—are woefully ill-suited for active combat zones.

The nature of some of the weapons makes their potential loss even more concerning. For example, Stinger missiles, which Washington has sent to Kyiv by the thousands, have long worried the U.S. counterterror community for the unique national security threat their diversion can pose.

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Even arms delivered and properly safeguarded by Ukrainian forces create risks for civilians and non-combatants that should be heeded by Western planners. The eight-year-old war in the Donbas has seen indiscriminate attacks by Ukrainian forces, and although Russian troops have mounted the vast majority of attacks on cities since February’s invasion, human rights organizations have derided the historical use of explosive weapons with wide effects in urban areas and unguided rockets by both sides of the conflict.

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Finally, in the rush to harden Ukrainian defenses, the United States risks arming units with troubling histories, including elements of the Azov Battalion, an ultranationalist Ukrainian militia-turned-national guard element, whose ranks have included avowed neo-Nazis. Though Moscow has greatly and cynically exaggerated the scale, prominence, and scope of Azov’s role in Ukraine’s national defense, inadvertent U.S. material support to their troops risks adding some truth to Russia’s great lie that its invasion is in a battle against Western-backed fascists. 

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U.S. military aid to Ukraine will continue to expand. While the White House has already provided $6.1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, Congress has made up to $23 billion available for military aid related to the conflict. Accordingly, the time to plan and implement risk-mitigation measures is now. And though the announcement that the Pentagon is considering deploying civilian weapons inspectors to Ukraine is a welcome first step, any such effort should be part of a wider strategic risk management plan that includes:

  • Bespoke end-use monitoring procedures that reflect the difficulty and complexity of Ukraine’s operating environment and that takes an expanded view of the systems typically marked for enhanced monitoring.
  • Measures for post-delivery checks and unit vetting, and robust monitoring, including by U.S. intelligence, of the use or misuse of U.S. weaponry.
  • Systematic and transparent mechanisms to facilitate civil society engagement and reporting on Ukrainian security force behavior and weapons use.
  • Clear conditions in all transfer agreements between Washington and Kyiv related to indiscriminate attacks, civilian harm, and other abuses of international human rights.

Vitally, the United States should be engaging the Ukrainian government and external civil-society experts to develop and implement plans for secure weapons storage and stockpile management, mechanisms for accounting for and tracking transferred arms, and plans for returning or destroying surplus stocks, especially after the conflict ends.

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The people of Ukraine deserve the world’s support in defending against Russia’s invasion. For arms exporters, and the United States in particular, this should mean responsible arms transfers matched with mechanisms for risk mitigation that will inure Ukraine and others from the potential harm of the West’s unprecedented military assistance effort.

by Rachel Stohl and Elias Yousif

Originally published on Defense One


Rachel Stohl is a Vice President of Research Programs at the Stimson Center and Director of the Conventional Defense Program.
Elias Yousif is a Research Analyst with the Stimson Center’s Conventional Defense Program. 

SOURCEGospa News

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19 COMMENTS

  1. Given how much is already on the black-market and the bargain prices, much less than they cost to send to Ukraine, maybe the best solution and most economical would be for US intel to buy them back and at least reduce their financial losses, recoup some of the weapons systems and reduce the availability to other parties. The insanity of such a plan only emphasises the insanity of the whole show, since it is literally the best idea still.

    • Yes, all these comments reinforce the insanity diagnosis of the eastern European battle. And, the US taxpayer continues to get the big one rammed up their poop shoot. But, more importantly, did the Mets beat the Cubs today?

  2. I know some high ups in an international bikie gang who control the Oz black-market in arms. I’ve been saying for months that anti-tank and SAMS have been for sale and have already now reached our shores, along with small arms which were always flowing steadily out of Ukraine. I’ve seen media reports confirming this now and also that switchblade drones and heavy artillery etc is for sale. What’s interesting is that while prices were about half their actual value before, those prices are dropping sharply. We’re talking bargain basement prices. That indicates there is a huge supply. They’re talking about shutting the gate now. Still haven’t even done so, but why bother? The horse has long since bolted, joined the herd and is running free.

  3. This is a great and well researched article. Thank you for that very interesting point of view regarding diversion.

    The United States should not be supporting the business interests of a few “elite” individuals including the Biden clan who made huge sums of money from 2015-2020 and built upon the Obama era when Ukraine was essentially taken over economically with the placement of political leaders with very close prior relationships with the State Department.

    Why are we supporting a nation that is corrupt, broke and asking for 75 billion a year to reconstruct their nation? Remember, many US companies came into Ukraine in 2015 including at that time Monsanto (now Bayer) and implemented GMO on the richest soil in the world. All the gold of the Ukraine Central Bank went missing around that time and the American citizens did not get one penny even though according to a tape of Victoria Nulan (then assistant to John Kerry – State Department) we spent $5 billion on the economic takeover of Ukraine.

    We need to push hard for peace initiatives and everybody should consider calling congress/senators to ask that US push very hard for peace initiatives with Russia. It was done successfully in Syria as the US and Russia operated in the same general areas and had a complete deconfliction protocol in place. If not, potassium iodide might become your friend.

    • The article is nothing of the sort really. This is no news, and totally appears to have missed the point these weapons are already long since up for sale. They can be found on the Dark web. You can literally browse everything from coms systems, kamikaze drones, SAMS, NLAWs, artillery and of course small arms. You simply click on them to put them in your cart and go to checkout. I forget the delivery details but I think Poland is the main point of pickup. No doubt there will be variations and no doubt the bigger stuff will require significant resources and planning to arrange, but nothing beyond a small to average terrorist group or organised criminals. International bikie gangs of course have the means. Some already deal a lot of black-market weapons. Given this info is months old, I’m surprised this is all we get here at VT.

  4. Perhaps the truth should appear as… As per the plan, all is going as expected. Terrorist groups (at our command) are receiving their weapons allotments/monies according to priority in future color revs that likely will occur (if we have anything to say about it). The ensuing violence and death reaped will advance the western death throes and the reset shall continue unabated. The chaotic conditions enabled by (our) operatives should be all that is necessary for the people to demand total control over the population to save them. Operation Ukraine proceeding as planned.

  5. “Though Moscow has greatly and cynically exaggerated the scale, prominence, and scope of Azov’s role in Ukraine’s national defense, inadvertent U.S. material support to their troops risks adding some truth to Russia’s great lie that its invasion is in a battle against Western-backed fascists. ” Maybe you cantell us the number of Neo-nazi´s that are in the Uko-army? The U.S even forced their entry to the army!

    • Yes.
      The Democrats are put in to begin wars, followed by the Republicans to not pay for the War.
      #Aloha

  6. Well the Biden regime is sending another $400 million in military aid again to Ukraine bringing the total to over $7 billion. It would appear the American people don’t care one bit. I see Ukrainian flags quite frequently in my neighborhood and surrounding area where it is surprising for some of the areas. Senator Blumenthal (democrat) is calling for more powerful modern long range weapons be sent to Ukraine.
    The Biden regime continues the bombing campaign in Syria and the theft of their resources.
    When Biden was asked recently how long would the American have have to suffer through high gas prices and food, he said : as long as it takes.
    How is the replacement of the evil orange man working out with Biden ?

  7. The merchants of war know no boundaries. Gun control of individual civilians is meaningless when the same Governments have immunity from killing millions with their “defensive” armaments. People kill people? Hmmm.

  8. Talking of weapons that may end up in the wrong hands…
    CERN antimatter weaponry
    Antimatter was successfully stored for the first time in 2010. They did it by creating a magnetic bottle called a Minimum Magnetic Field Trap. It uses a magnet to keep antimatter on the inside from interacting with the walls of the trap and exploding. It was created by an international team of scientists at CERN.
    An antimatter weapon is a weapon which would use antimatter as a power source, a propellant or an explosive. There are many hypothetical antimatter weapons, the most well known of which is the antimatter bomb. Antimatter weapons would be the most destructive and powerful in human history, so why don’t they exist? The only reason they don’t exist yet is because they just so expensive to make. No country has considered it worth it to make one, and even the richest businessmen in the world don’t have the funds to build one. Bill Gates couldn’t afford more than one millionth of a gram. However small scale antimatter weapons are much more affordable, as I mentioned earlier you can create a bullet with a 10 millionth of a gram of antimatter in it for only $600,000. But even this is insanely expensive for only one bullet.
    From eskify dot com/the-antimatter-bomb-the-only-weapon-more-powerful-than-a-nuke/

    • Questions raised concerning
      The Georgia Guidestones blowning up.
      At 04.3.33.
      “The video doesn’t give a full picture”.
      “Why does the street light get double bright the moments before the explosion/strike”.
      “Didn’t they fire up CERN accelerator yesterday?”
      “In this case, the 333 means we’re one big family, and someone is looking out for us”.

      Could mean nothing.
      Could mean something.
      Could be coincidence.
      But interesting all the same.

  9. “Rachel and Elias” perhaps thanks to their origins, didn’t seem to notice 8 years of Kievan army and
    Nazis invasion of DPR and LPR, if they did, they could re-label their “Russian invasion” to finally Russian
    protection of civilians in those 2 Republics – which the World should indeed support, and demand that
    Kievan Junta is arrested for anti humanitarian activities of their nazis against the population of neighboring
    2 countries.

    • Good comment to a poor article that more highlights the potential blow-back from ill thought out US policies. We could add in the Minsk 1 and 2 accords that were designed to maintain the integrity of the Ukrainian state and a Nazified NATO trained army poised to attack the two republics and the consequential threat of a genocide.