Until it decided to confront Moscow with an existential military threat in Ukraine, Washington confined the use of American military power to conflicts that Americans could afford to lose, wars with weak opponents in the developing world from Saigon to Baghdad that did not present an existential threat to U.S. forces or American territory. This time—a proxy war with Russia—is different.
Contrary to early Beltway hopes and expectations, Russia neither collapsed internally nor capitulated to the collective West’s demands for regime change in Moscow. Washington underestimated Russia’s societal cohesion, its latent military potential, and its relative immunity to Western economic sanctions.
As a result, Washington’s proxy war against Russia is failing. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was unusually candid about the situation in Ukraine when he told the allies in Germany at Ramstein Air Base on January 20, “We have a window of opportunity here, between now and the spring,” admitting, “That’s not a long time.”
Alexei Arestovich, President Zelensky’s recently fired advisor and unofficial “Spinmeister,” was more direct. He expressed his own doubts that Ukraine can win its war with Russia and he now questions whether Ukraine will even survive the war. Ukrainian losses—at least 150,000 dead including 35,000 missing in action and presumed dead—have fatally weakened Ukrainian forces resulting in a fragile Ukrainian defensive posture that will likely shatter under the crushing weight of attacking Russian forces in the next few weeks.
Ukraine’s materiel losses are equally severe. These include thousands of tanks and armored infantry fighting vehicles, artillery systems, air defense platforms, and weapons of all calibers. These totals include the equivalent of seven years of Javelin missile production. In a setting where Russian artillery systems can fire nearly 60,000 rounds of all types—rockets, missiles, drones, and hard-shell ammunition—a day, Ukrainian forces are hard-pressed to answer these Russian salvos with 6,000 rounds daily. New platform and ammunition packages for Ukraine may enrich the Washington community, but they cannot change these conditions.
Predictably, Washington’s frustration with the collective West’s failure to stem the tide of Ukrainian defeat is growing. In fact, the frustration is rapidly giving way to desperation.
Michael Rubin, a former Bush appointee and avid supporter of America’s permanent conflicts in the Middle East and Afghanistan, vented his frustration in a 1945 article asserting that, “if the world allows Russia to remain a unitary state, and if it allows Putinism to survive Putin, then, Ukraine should be allowed to maintain its own nuclear deterrence, whether it joins NATO or not.” On its face, the suggestion is reckless, but the statement does accurately reflect the anxiety in Washington circles that Ukrainian defeat is inevitable.
NATO’s members were never strongly united behind Washington’s crusade to fatally weaken Russia. The governments of Hungary and Croatia are simply acknowledging the wider European public’s opposition to war with Russia and lack of support for Washington’s desire to postpone Ukraine’s foreseeable defeat.
Though sympathetic to the Ukrainian people, Berlin did not support all-out war with Russia on Ukraine’s behalf. Now, Germans are also uneasy with the catastrophic condition of the German armed forces.
Retired German Air Force General (four-star equivalent) Harald Kujat, former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, severely criticized Berlin for allowing Washington to railroad Germany into conflict with Russia, noting that several decades of German political leaders actively disarmed Germany and thus deprived Berlin of authority or credibility in Europe. Though actively suppressed by the German government and media, his comments are resonating strongly with the German electorate.
The blunt fact is that in its efforts to secure victory in its proxy war with Russia, Washington ignores historical reality. From the 13th century onward, Ukraine was a region dominated by larger, more powerful national powers, whether Lithuanian, Polish, Swedish, Austrian, or Russian.
In the aftermath of the First World War, abortive Polish designs for an independent Ukrainian State were conceived to weaken Bolshevik Russia. Today, Russia is not communist, nor does Moscow seek the destruction of the Polish State as Trotsky, Lenin, Stalin, and their followers did in 1920.
So where is Washington headed with its proxy war against Russia? The question deserves an answer.
On Sunday December 7, 1941, U.S. Ambassador Averell Harriman was with Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill having dinner at Churchill’s home when the BBC broadcast the news that the Japanese had attacked the U.S. Naval Base at Pearl Harbor. Harriman was visibly shocked. He simply repeated the words, “The Japanese have raided Pearl Harbor.”
Harriman need not have been surprised. The Roosevelt administration had practically done everything in its power to goad Tokyo into attacking U.S. forces in the Pacific with a series of hostile policy decisions culminating in Washington’s oil embargo during the summer of 1941.
In the Second World War, Washington was lucky with timing and allies. This time it’s different. Washington and its NATO allies are advocating a full-blown war against Russia, the devastation and breakup of the Russian Federation, as well as the destruction of millions of lives in Russia and Ukraine.
Washington emotes. Washington does not think, and it is also overtly hostile to empiricism and truth. Neither we nor our allies are prepared to fight all-out war with Russia, regionally or globally. The point is, if war breaks out between Russia and the United States, Americans should not be surprised. The Biden administration and its bipartisan supporters in Washington are doing all they possibly can to make it happen.
Douglas Macgregor, Col. (ret.) is a senior fellow with The American Conservative, the former advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, a decorated combat veteran, and the author of five books.
Jonas E. Alexis has degrees in mathematics and philosophy. He studied education at the graduate level. His main interests include U.S. foreign policy, the history of the Israel/Palestine conflict, and the history of ideas. He is the author of the book, Kevin MacDonald’s Metaphysical Failure: A Philosophical, Historical, and Moral Critique of Evolutionary Psychology, Sociobiology, and Identity Politics. He teaches mathematics in South Korea.
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The best way to see the world today is actually very simple. like the old cowboys and indians Hollywood movies, except that we have to step up to a higher level – Good and Evil! Here we see that US is clearly playing the satanic or the evil side with its propagation of LBGTQ and destruction of family, humanity and Christianity as we know it. On the other hand countries like Russia and Iran are on the God and family side – with Russia completely dedicated to Christianity. US has managed to offload its Zionist control throughout Europe as well as spreading its terrorism and destruction of countries in the ME and Asia/Africa region. Iran here is the deal breaker for US, as it is a force that even has the name “God” on its flag. Here we are not dealing with Arabs but Persians who have much higher IQs and can actually design and fly Plasma crafts. Therefore, in this universe, nothing that US/west do can be justified and every thing that Russia and even Iran do is justifiable. Exactly like you made us believe in the cowboys and indians films.
US/NATO declare that they have prevented Europe from being invaded by Russia, and so the war has been won in a great victory for the US/NATO countries, and it is now over and done with.
Print it this way in the history books. SIMPLE
“Spin it” just as that.
The only solution I can see here is the Military in the US and Ukraine stepping in and applying the EXACT SAME method of ridding both countries of the CABAL of mass murderers as the Romanian Military did with Nicolae and Elena Ceaușescu in 1989.
They were arrested and after a quick trial where they were charged with the murder of 60,000 people, they were both given some severe lead poisoning by an enthusiastic firing squad.
What they did, or was claimed they did, pales into insignificance with what Zelensky and his predecessor Cabals have done since the US State dept. Coup in 2014 when the shysters in Government in America deposed the ELECTED Ukrainian President and installed one of their co-religionists into power in that country.
The Army of Ukraine, said to be the largest standing military in Europe at 600,000 in Uniform in February of 2022, has all but ceased to exist. At least 160,000 are DEAD and about 400,000 wounded.
Does anyone seriously believe that Zelensky and the murdering tribe of swindlers getting rich on bribes are going to ‘live happily ever after’ in Ukraine once they beat Russia? This has to be stopped.
There’s not a single thing Col. McGregor writes here which anyone with even half a brain can disagree with. To stop this, the head of the snake has to be removed. Ukrainian patriots should by now have a LIST of villains to arrest.
The romenian way of dealing with Cheausescu family was stupid since the one´s who were sustaining the dictatorship only had to make a spin like wonder woman to became a democatic polititian and being able to keep the system working against the people.
Head of snake suffocating Ukraine in a slow death-coil soon to be swalloed whole was Obama in particular, the ass-hole of snake is Biden, Zelensky the shit excreted.
rounds the NATO… ?
they shot their wadd!
the reds are piking up all of that scrap metal left behind by the unkes and sending it in for repair @ their shops… think of it as Home Depo and thir repo dept…
something like 16,000 pieces of heavy armour whacked… question is ? where R they going to park all of the gear from red’s repair shop…
I do not believe in a nuclear war, because this would seal the fate of the US & the entire planet at all. The real question is how many rounds the NATO in Europe can fire a day against Russia? I do not see any perspective for NATO to win a conventional war against Russia. What NATO will do, if Russia starts to demilitarise Europe? The US citizens would start to shit in a backhouse again.
ED ! i think thats the new game plan… the russians fully intend to grab nato head on and let em burn..
otw the regular us citized is too busy getting vaped liking thir pads 4 fakebookienews..
the direction of the main blow will come w the new go-vet in kieve/admn.. the russians will need the locals to re-start uki industry and local municipals..
wagner has plenty of talent 4 the blood attonments and the ends of the earth – them’/they’ sought !
It´s dificcult to desagree with you sir after the way Russia dealed with the issue!
Excellent analysis. No mention, though, about why we are involved with Ukraine in the first place. Victoria “f-uck the EU” Nuland was doing a lot more than passing out cookies on Maidan Square in 2014. She and her neocon brethren have nurtured a long abiding hatred for Russia that dates back to the days of Catherine the Great and the Pale of Settlement. Now with Antony Blinken as her side she can get a two for one, deindustrialize Germany by denying it access to cheap Russian gas and oil and goad the USA into a catastrophic war with Russia.